AEROSOLS
Effect = Cooling when increasing
Scale = Global, enhanced regionally
Cause = Mainly Anthropogenic (A), can be strong short-term Natural (N)
Status = Moderate to strong cooling
Time = 2 to 3 years
BIOGEOCHEMICAL FEEDBACKS
Effect = Cooling or warming
Scale = Global
Cause = N and A, N influenced by A
Status = Strong warming
Time = Years to centuries
CARBON SINKS
Effect = Cooling
Scale = Global
Cause = N influenced by A
Status = Declining, leading to warming
Time = Permanent
DEFORESTATION
Effect = Warming
Scale = Global, more pronounced regionally
Cause = Mainly A, some N
Status = Rate of D is slowing slightly
Time = Decades
ECCENTRICITY
Effect = Warming in +ive phase, cooling in –ive phase
Scale = Global
Cause = Entirely N
Status = Negative phase, slow long-term cooling
Time = 95,000 years
FORAMINIFERA
Effect = Cooling
Scale = Global, enhanced locally and regionally
Cause = N influenced by A
Status = +ive and –ive influences, could be balanced overall
Time = Permanent
GREAT SALINITY ANOMALIES
Effect = Warming in +ive phase, cooling in –ive phase
Scale = Global, enhanced hemispherically
Cause = N
Status = Negative phase, up to 0.3°C of cooling over ~30 years
Time = Decades
HYDROCLIMATOLOGICAL VARIATIONS
Effect = Either warming or cooling
Scale = Global, can be enhanced at all climatic scales
Cause = Usually N, influenced by A
Status = Accelerated variation due to GW
Time = Years to millennia
INCOMING COSMIC RADIATION
Effect = Cooling in +ive phase, warming in –ive phase
Scale = Global
Cause = Entirely N
Status = Steady, little influence
Time = Always present, short-term +ive phases
JET STREAMS
Effect = Warming to the S and cooling to the N
Scale = Mid to high latitudes most affected
Cause = N, likely influenced by A
Status = Disrupted
Time = Always present, disrupted for past few years
KATABATIC WINDS
Effect = No overall change as redistributes heat
Scale = Globally, enhanced in cryosphere
Cause = N, maybe influenced by A
Status = Evidence for increased incidence in last 12 years
Time = Hours to days
LAND USE CHANGE
Effect = Warming
Scale = Global, more pronounced regionally
Cause = Almost all A, small N component
Status = Significant change leading to warming
Time = Ongoing for centuries, effects are years to centuries
METHANE CLATHRATES
Effect = Warming
Scale = Global, short term regional enhancement
Cause = N, may in future be influenced by A
Status = Stable for millions of years
Time = Release phase is millennia, effects lag be a few years
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
Effect = Warming and cooling on regional basis
Scale = Global, concentrated in Europe and North America
Cause = N, may have a very small A component
Status = Declining positive phase
Time = 20 to 30 years
ORBITAL INCLINATION
Effect = Cooling in decreasing phase, warming in increasing phase
Scale = Global
Cause = Entirely N
Status = Midway through decreasing phase, very slight long-term cooling
Time = 41,000 years
PHYTOPLANKTON
Effect = Warming when in decline
Scale = Global, enhanced locally and regionally
Cause = N, growth can be induced by A
Status = Possibly declining leading to slight warming
Time = Ongoing
QUASIBIENNIAL OSCILLATION
Effect = Warming in +ive phase, cooling in –ive phase
Scale = Global, enhanced regionally
Cause = N
Status = Negative phase, multidecadal negative trend, very slight cooling
Time = Phases = a few years, trends = a few centuries
RADIOACTIVE DECAY
Effect = Cooling
Scale = Global
Cause = N
Status = Declining, miniscule cooling effect
Time = Ongoing for 4.6 billion years
SOLAR VARIATION
Effect = Cooling or warming depending on net effects
Scale = Global, enhanced regionally and hemispherically
Cause = N
Status = Negative phase, multidecadal negative trend, slight cooling
Time = 10 years to several centuries
THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION
Effect = No overall change as redistributes heat
Scale = Local to global, regionally enhanced
Cause = N, may be influenced by A
Status = Steady, possible future disruption
Time = Generally steady, can be disrupted on scale of years to millenia
UPWELLING
Effect = Atmospheric and climatic cooling, redistribution of oceanic heat
Scale = Local to global, regionally enhanced
Cause = N
Status = Minor disruption, probably entirely natural
Time = Seasonal and annual phases, oscillations over a few years
VOLCANOES
Effect = Cooling (warming on geological timescales when Earth frozen)
Scale = Initially regional then global
Cause = N
Status = Steady
Time = Cooling for 2 to 3 years
Distance From The Sea
Ocean Currents
Direction of Prevailing Winds
Greenhouse Gas Levels, almost completely water vapor
Proximity To The Equator
The El Nino Phenomenon
Intensity of the Sun. :) :)
There could be unknown influences. Here is a list of forcings we know about or which some suspect.
1. The Sun.
2. The Milankovich Cycles
3. Volcanic aerosols
4. Anthropogenic carbon dioxide.
5. Other anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
6. Anthropgenic aerosols.
7. Contrails.
8. Urbanization - the Urban Heat Island Effect
I acknowledge the fact that AGW is a reality. Here are some of them:
The Sun and changes in solar input. not increasing. http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-index-graphic...
Milankovitch cycles or periodic changes in Earth's orbit which has a direct effect on how much Sun we receive. Currently in it's cooling phase. http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v...
Greenhouse gas concentration which has an effect on how much heat and light are retained in the system
Heat coming from Earth's interior as a result of gravitational compression and decaying radioactive isotopes
Volcanic and other sources of aerosol emissions which actively cool the planet dependent on the type of aerosol.
Clouds.
The urban heat island effect providing regional warming.
Changes in planetary circulation such as winds, ocean currents, and so on
and so on...
Edit: JZ - I was listing all the effects on Earth's climate not just the ones that have an effect on climate change. Not only the 'major influences' but a listing of those influences that were off the top of my head. Try again. And if you actually did 'bother learning the science' you would be aware of the statements and links posted above. apparently your version of 'learning the science' consists of stating "No one knows". JimZ is that you? By gosh it is.
JimZ: Yes it is important to know what is not known. Perhaps, then, you can point us to what is not known that is a major influence on climate? All you have done is state that there are many things that are not known in the climate system and, while that is true, you do not go past that. And most of the things that people label as unknown in here are actually known.
Like Jeff M, I acknowledge the fact that AGW is a reality. So it makes sense to start with human caused climate forcings.
1. Human
a. CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. (plus black carbon and aerosols)
b. Other CO2 emissions from human activity that doesn't not involve combustion (e.g. tilling soil).
c. Deforestation and other changes to land use effectively reducing albedo or altering carbon sinks and sources.
d. Urbanization and industrial activity-energy expenditure is release of excess waste heat.
e. Farming (including livestock).
2. Natural
a. Total solar irradiance which is the sum of UV energy hitting the Earth.
b. Solar wind.
c. Solar geomagnetic storms, flares, coronal mass ejections.
d. Sunspot activity.
f. Major ocean circulation patterns and indexes like PDO, AO and AMO.
g. Evaporation (water cycle)
h. Cloud cover for both high and low clouds.
i. Volcanic eruptions and other natural aersols.
j. ENSO.
k. Milankovitch Cycles.
Does this mean I'm not insane?
For me, the jury is still out regarding AGW.....the climate science community needs to address the evidence of collusion/fraud that exists with a number of the high-profile ' experts and the data that they have used/manipulated or 'omitted'.
Key influences on climate? Sun/surface activity, Sun/orbital phases, volcanic activities.
Jeff got it right. No one can. You would like to pretend to know that CO2 is a "major" driver of climate but you are deluding yourself.
Jeff believes gravitational compression is a source of changing climates. He must have come up with that one by himself. I could hardly come up with something that isn't more constant than than the heat from the interior of the earth. I am guessing it was you who gave Jeff the thumbs ups at the same time you gave me a thumbs down. That's all right. Getting thumbs down from the dumbed down isn't an insult. Why don't you bother learning about the science instead of believing whatever is blathered at you from your side.
Yes Jeff, it is me. I am now JZ. I figured it was pretty obvious especially with my bee picture that I took. It is important to know what is not known. Pretending to know things you don't leads to your present confusion.
Jeff, I pointed out that it isn't known that CO2 is a major influence. I agree that you have to interpret that from my answer but I think it was pretty obvious. Just to give you a hand on the gravity. The earth's interior may have added some heat from the original accretion due to gravity and collision of particles, comets, dust, meteors, etc. That original heat has since been insulated by thousands of miles of rock. That original heat and isotopic decay has provided the heat to have a liquid outer core that is slowly cooling. That cooling process provides the energy to power convection currents that do have an element of gravity which is involved in the movement of less dense rock. Those convection currents don't really reach the surface. They pretty much move to the outside of the mantle and push the tectonic plates as they flow.
It is not wrong or insane a vast majority of who you consider realist are like hey dook, waiting for someone to tell him what to think. I understand as you do that there our many factors that influence climate, where we differ is the view that all other factors are interfering with predictions out of one hole and claiming they have no discernable impact out of another.
1. I strongly believe in AGW.
2. Both anthropogenic (GHG emissions and LULCC) and natural (ocean circulation, solar/Milankovitch cycles) influence climate on Earth. (Be careful to distinguish climate change from global warming from climate as a sytem by the way).
Good Luck =)
Which influences are most important mainly depends on the time frame. For a full list, I would google, or wait for Trevor to answer.
Edit: Yes, indeed, Mike is in a different "subset of denialists." A sensible straightforward honest answer every now and again to help cloak the reality of his anti-science barrage of recycled Wattsup croc fake questions.
No. No one can name them all because science does not yet know. Any who claim they know all are either deluded or they are lying to you.
Here is one: The sun and solar cycles.
There is a certain subset of denialists who apparently think that those who accept AGW think that the *only* driver of global climate, and the *only* factor influencing weather, is anthropogenic carbon dioxide. This is, well, wrong, and possibly insane.
Can everyone please 1. state their approximate position on or view of AGW, and 2. list the major climate forcings/drivers of climate/climate influences they are aware of (or, at least, 5 or so of them). If you wish, you can also indicate whether/in what direction they are currently changing, and/or approximately how much you think each is currently influencing the climate. If you want to go into detail about forcings vs feedbacks, and/or provide reliable sources to back up your list, that would be nice, too.
Hey Dook: "For a full list, I would google, or wait for Trevor to answer"
It is like you are mocking yourself.
Go here:
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence
No, because we don't know all the influences and their effect. And greenies know even less. That is why they call the subject chaotic.
Ah geez, guess I must have imagined your repeated calls for carbon taxation ( which kinda implies it's your main fixation).
