Using the dataset in question, this decade so far is 0.057°C warmer than the 2000’s, there’s little sign at present that it’s going to get much warmer.
For Romm to win the bet there’s going to have to be significant warming in the next few years and climates don’t work like that – they don’t suddenly switch from warming to cooling. Even if the warming trend returns then it’s going to take a while to really start to kick in, by which time it could be too late for Romm.
We know that the current cooling influences are going to be coming to an end but that could be years off. Romm would perhaps have been better wagering that the 2020’s would be 0.15°C warmer than the 2010’s.
Temperatures have remained more or less static for about 15 years now and will continue to do so for an indeterminate amount of time. Using the 30 year climatic average, 2013 was the first year since 1965 that the average global temperature dropped; not a good time for Romm to have made this bet.
"One of the warmest years on record" what does that mean? How long is the record? Where are we referring to, exactly? Who is taking these readings?
According to this 2013 is one of the coldest years in recent history.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut...
First given what I know and have learned about 2013 weather conditions and patterns I highyl doubt the
accuracy of the claim.
Next The "pause" has to end AND a good predictable mathematical model needs to be developed that can accurately demonstrate trends before I owuld begin to believe we know enough about this subject to validata ANY claims of AGW.
A link substantiating the accuracy of the description of the supposed bet is missing. Hard to evaluate out of that context.
It could be at least 6 years before we find out, and that's an eternity in politics.
Hard to say. They are using the GISS dataset so there may be some re-re-re-re-re-re-re-readjustments of past temps downward and present temps upwards.
Now that 2013 has been declared one of the warmest years on record, how likely is it that Joe Romm will win his bet with Thomas Fuller that the 2010s will be at .east .15C warmer than the 2000s?
This is 1.5C per century, the low end of the IPCC's 95% warming scenario.
Skeptics, if Joe Romm wins this bet, would that change your mind?
