Wouldn't it be more likely to be 1.5C than 4.5C, which is the range of estimates in the latest report?

The most recent IPCC report ditched the best estimate of climate sensitivity. Indeed, the pause suggests that the climate sensitivity will not be as drastic as they suggested. Recent papers that came out after the IPCC deadline concluded even lower estimates of sensitivity. Instead of showing all models in a spaghetti graph and then claiming that the models were successful, they should have looked at the best performing models and used that to constrain their estimates. Models with high sensitivity performed the worst.

I think they have been adjusting the sensitivity.

However, they are so convinced that they are right that they try very hard not to revise downwards the high estimate - just the low one. Strangely, I think this range is either similar or larger than it was 30 years ago.

So we have 30 years more knowledge and certainty but science is still not able to translate that into a smaller range for the climate sensitivity.

Sensitivity is obviously WAY too high and in my opinion that's why all the climate models are so fantastically wrong.

But the truth is, CO2 is not the problem. CO2 does not drive temperature --- it FOLLOWS temperature. But the powers that be want to tax carbon and that's why it's demonized.

Top climate scientists say there is no man-made Global Warming.

The Great Global Warming Swindle