During the period in question the average PDO Index was 0.573 which is quite a high value across a period of time this long. To apply some context annual +2.00 or –2.00 values are the extremes, +1.00 or –1.00 are quite unusually high or low values, +0.500 or –0.500 are fairly high or low values, about half of all annual values fall in the range of –0.500 to +0.5000.
This period was the only time then the positive phase trend exceeded 0.500, the negative phase trend has exceeded –0.500 in the late 50’s and early 60’s and since 2008.
It would be fair to say that the strong positive PDO contributed to warming over this period.
It would not be fair to say that the PDO is the explanation for global warming. Since 1900 the PDOI has been almost exactly zero (0.004009) so the effect is virtually nil.
When you compare the PDOI with the average global temperatures there is a reasonably good correlation, thus showing that the PDO is a significant factor in periods of warming/cooling. There are some occasions when PDOI and temperatures diverge such as from the mid 1990’s onwards, whilst temps have remained steady PDOI trend has declined from it’s highest ever value to it’s lowest ever.
Why is it impossible for Denier blogs to ever report anything honestly?
Trenbreth does not say that the warming was "due" to PDO. He says that PDO "somewhat" enhanced global warming (which he maintains is real and continuing).
"Global warming has not stopped; it is merely manifested in different ways."
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.10...
He is saying that ..."The PDO is not independent of ENSO..." - that the 1997/98 Enso event moved a lot of heat out of deep ocean water which contibuted to higher SST (as reflected in PDO). Consequently, over the last 15 or so years, the deep ocean is sucking up heat, replenishing the lost heat, which is resulting in lower SST (again, as reflected in PDO).
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/20...
The warming was caused by the PDO. At least some of it. This, however, does not mean the CO2 does not have any effect. If you are attributing the warmign during this period due to the PDO why are you not attributing the slowdown in warming, or even a slight cooling in some data sets, after 1998 to the ENSO/PDO? You accept that the warming was due to the PDO but you completely ignore the slowdown due to the same cycle or similar when it shows you are wrong.
Kano: Correction, you should have said that you aren't clever enough to do it. It has already been done.
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/4/...
Will you ignore this too? Or will you continue on with your ignorant stance? Maybe you will repost that false image from your favourite blog concerning CO2's logarthimic energy retention capabilities as CO2 increases when reality stares you right in the face and slaps you silly?
Of course you could just as easily be reading what Trenberth's paper actually said, rather than your usual garbage site, but then you might learn the whole story.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.10...
Why do you read so much propaganda and so little science?
All the graphs and charts can be cooked by those with a political agenda. For the most part, the left assaults counter opinions with ad Hominem attacks, name calling. The left that pushes this hoax, and it is a hoax, uses slimy politicians like Al Gore, long bony finger liars like Bill Clinton, and misplaced Kenyans like Hussein Obama to further their cause.
I've been following the leftist hucksters pushing the man made climate change hoax for about 40 years. First they proclaimed that Global Cooling was an absolute truth. Then, a little more than 30 years ago they changed to Global Warming. They said that the sea level in areas along the west coast where I live would rise, and that within 10 years there would be a marked difference, and that in 20 years the ocean would invade coastal towns and cities that were of lower elevations.
Well, it's been 30 years and nothing has changed. That's right, the mean ocean level is the same and the mean ocean temperature is the same as its always been for the last 50 years or more. I live within walking distance, less than a half mile from 8 miles of white sandy beach, and I have lived here since 1976. The ocean is so close to the highway at this point, that during a strong storm the ocean throws driftwood on the road. If their lies were true, the highway and the town should be underwater by now. Part of the town is about 6 feet above sea level, and nothing has changed.
I've been interested in Climate Change because of the threat since I live here. Also, I have a minor in Earth Science so I know a little about the earth.
It's difficult to measure climate because one must select areas of the earth to take measurements, and they don't come out the same way. It gets warmer in one place and colder in another. So, if the ocean is rising like they said it would 30 years ago, then show me! It doesn't take a climate scientist to see the truth.
Most of the so-called Scientists promoting man caused global warming are blackmailed whores to the leftist politicians; and critical observation by even laymen can see that it is a political hoax.
It might help to look at the previous positive phase from 1925 to 1946 and compare to the one finishing in 1998.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp...
If I agree that the positive PDO enhanced the warming rate between '76 and '98, would you agree that the difference between '46 and '98 (the approximate end points of the warming phases) of around 0.5C is a measure of the underlying warming trend?
Assuming the above is reasonable, then the question is what caused that warming?
Let's see Spencer, WUWT and NoTrick all promoting this idea is enough to convince me it is mostly bullsh*t
The sources you use are almost always diehard denier sites and the info is suspect That says more about you than me You are living in the past because you have no real climate science to challenge AGW in the here and now
CO2, Methane, Nitrous Oxides, Low Level Ozone and the CFC/HCFC families are primarily responsible for AGW and denying it doesn't alter reality. PLUS that is all you and all your skeptic buddies have the ability to do...is deny
As to Trenberth, he says "it could be possible" that is definitely non committal That is what you seem to be putting stock in If someone says it could be possible you can find gold on mars, will you buy a ticket??
this seems a variation of Tisdales' arcticles on the PDO. The link explains some problems with it.
I think that it is quite possible that something other than CO2 is having a significant effect.
How else do you explain the pause because CO2 has not paused?
A good introduction to El Ni?o and La Ni?a events are described here if anyone is interested.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/10/an...
EDIT: C - Please check and report back: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.10...
The trend for PDO from 1976-1998 was very weak. Even though it was trending in the right direction, it does not seem to be the likely reason for the warming from 1976-1998.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp...
In fact, the trend was so weak, that it would have had to have a very strong influence on temperature. So why didn't PDO cause sharp cooling since 1998?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp...
Of course, the answer is, carbon dioxide.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp...
was due to a positive PDO even Kevin Trenberth admits it could be possible now
http://notrickszone.com/2014/01/10/oops-trenberth-concedes-natural-ocean-cycles-contributed-to-1978-1998-warming-after-all-co2-diminishes-as-a-factor/
Global Warming started in 1977 and ended in 2012 before December. The weather your getting now was like in was in 1977 before Global Warming. As far as earth's environment is concerned= The environment is as it was for over a thousand years. Co2, exhaust, smoke, gases all separate into nothingness by Nature's chemicals in the upper atmosphere and like smoke and open exhaust separates about 20 feet over our heads. If you inclose a car running, then the exhaust collects inside of a location, but outside in the open air separates like all non solids that rise, so the suns rays warms the earth and grows plants for food and oxygen for all species. During the time of Global Warming. The earth's surfaces was being warmed by the suns rays to keep plant life growing all over earth. Global Warming was caused by an ALIEN Organism that was turned off by my Triple Output solution that was implemented by another Nation. Global Command.
