@Gary F: "Other than being shocked by the fact that someone other than me still codes in FORTRAN"
What programming language is used in most climate models?
Edit: Oh wait, hold that thought. Skepticalscience.com can be useful in small, specific doses:
"Today's most sophisticated climate models are called GCMs, which stands for General Circulation Model or Global Climate Model, depending on who you talk to. On average, they are about 500 000 lines of computer code long, and mainly written in Fortran, a scientific programming language." http://www.skepticalscience.com/how-do-c...
So you can't even nail down the time you claim for your claimed pause "15/16/17 year pause"
Given the warmest two years in the modern record are 2005 (8 years ago) & 2010 (3 years ago) I think we can put that down to believing what you read in blogs rather than any science.
The warmest decade in the modern record was the decade of the 1990's, till it was replaced by the decade of the 2000's, warmer by a full 0.2c which is also close to the estimate of the IPCC for the average rise in decadal temperature per decade.
Again you seem to be quoting the work of just one person 'Ferenc Miskolczi' someone with little real credibility, talk about clutching at straws. Is this work also published as the work the other day was in E&E a denier mouth piece journal, because his work just won't pass real peer review.
And unlike you I will link to the sources of my claims
this is measure data for the claim of the temp increase between the 90's and the 00's
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201...
Further down it also shows the year rankings for 2005 and 2010
So if you real like data chew on this for your "15/16/17" or 96, 97, 98"
98 was 0.51c above the mean (lifted by a record El Nino)
97 was 0.45c above the mean
96 was 0.32c above the mean
compare that to recent years
2010 was 0.66c above the mean
2011 was 0.54c above the mean
2012 was 0.56c above the mean
2011 & 2012 were admittedly cooler years due to a double dip La Nina, that has now passed, yet even so they are clearly warmer than warm years in the 1990s you mention 97 & 96, o.k until 2000 1997 was the second warmest year in the modern record now it is no longer in the top 10 list at all and so called cooler years like 2008 & 2011 even beat it.
Is this really what you want to try and call cooling or a pause, so here's a challenge, can you actually answer this point or will you play the usual game of trying to change the subject.
(surprise me and try)
>>...we have Miskolczi radio sond measurements...<<
Other than being shocked by the fact that someone other than me still codes in FORTRAN and that there is a "Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service" - Why are you referencing something 5-6 years old that had a lifespan shorter than a mayfly?
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I believe that Pegminer provided you with the answer a few days ago.
>> I meant his empirical measurements showing the atmosphere is not responding as expected (for whatever reasons)<<
Exactly what measurements are those? In any case, there are no “measurements” showing anything of the kind unless you plug them into equations that modify them based on hypothetical values – values that contradict observational data and mathematical formula.
>>I am not a fan of theories, I am a fan of empirical measurements.<<
First, remember that gravity, electricity, and the atom are theories. And, secondly, theories give empirical measurements their “meaning” and their relevance (What reason(s) do you have to think that the measurements have anything to do with thing you are talking about?).
Measurements alone are evidence of nothing – they become evidence when you apply them to – and interpret them within - the context of some scientific theory.
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I don't know anyone who writes climate models; I have not met anyone in the last 10 years who has ever used it - for anything (I've quit even trying to explain why building your own database is better than trusting something built by someone else); and I'm not one of those people who spend their time trying to stay on top of the "latest news" in computer programing languages.
I'm half joking though because I know there are a lot of legacy programs that no one wants - or has the time - to rewrite. There are a lot of heavy number-crunching FORTRAN programs floating around (because - after all - that is what FORTRAN (aka 'Formula Translation') was specifically designed to do).
Thanks for checking, though. I really did not know what language(s) modellers used.
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>>Gravity hmm you can drop an object off a high building and measure the time it takes to reach the ground, you don't need computer models to give you an answer.<<
What does that tell you?
Newton's Law of Gravity does not tell you what gravity is - or even if it "is" (there may be no such thing), Newton's law simply describes the behavior of objects based on their mass and the distance between them. "Gravity" is just a name for that relationship/behavior.
Einstein's Theory of Gravity is an attempt to "explain/define" what gravity is.
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>> …I have no need to understand the theory of gravity, just what it's effects are…<<
If you do not understand what gravity is then you cannot know if the “effects” you observe are related to gravity or to something else.
According to Einstein, Newton’s gravitational “force” does not exist. How can you know the “effects” of something (gravity) that causes no effects – because it (gravitational force) does not exist? The answer, of course, is that you cannot.
As for measuring a falling object - How do you know that you are not measuring the effect of an invisible man who carries things to the ground? You may “believe” that gravity is real and that the invisible man is not real; and, you may believe that you “know” gravity’s effects - but you don’t.
>>Gravity hmm you can drop an object off a high building and measure the time it takes to reach the ground, you don't need computer models to give you an answer.<<
All that gives you is a measurement – not an answer – not an explanation – and not an understanding – of anything.
meanwhile, the ice is melting. no point at looking at real evidence.
The Sueddeutche Zeitung reports that the Chinese shipping line Cosco has sailed a container ship from Dalian August 8 to arrive in Rotterdam in the second week of September, cutting two weeks off the normal trip through the Suez Canal. As they say the Northern Sea Route is open for business.
The Russian authorities have issued permits for at least 393 ships to navigate the Northern Sea Route up from 4 in 2010.
Perhaps you should read sicence, rather than blogs. Why do you think that the atmosphere is not cooperating. No, the temperature trend does not look exactly like this.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/co...
But it doesn't look exactly like this, either.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/co...
Perhaps if you consider the yellow ball in the sky, the Asian Brown cloud, clouds, contrails and greenhouse gases, you may find that everything falls into place.
http://www.grida.no/publications/other/i...
That is a defamatory statement. This is your only warniing. I report ALL defamation against scientists. If you want to read all points of view, fine. But that doesn't mean that you know Anything you read on blogs is one of three things.
1. exactly what scientists are saying.
2. what scientists used to say, but is superceeded by new information.
3. something somebody made up.
I'm not saying that you won't find 1 in wattsupwiththat or 2 and 3 in skepticalscience, but live in the real world.
You should take some caurses in physics, especially ones that are intensive in thermodynamics. Then you will be able to use you mind and not have to decide whether you trust "warmers" or "skeptics."
Because the difference between real scientists and armchair wannabe scientists is that the professionals understand that real data is seldom perfect and their years of training allow them to deduce the meaningful data from the background noise, determine those measurements that are more reliable than other sets, understand the errors of the measurement systems used to acquire that data, and separate poor methodologies from those that are more rigorous before drawing a conclusion.
refusing to cooperate, we have the missing hotspot, we have Miskolczi radio sond measurements, we have the 15/16/17 year pause, why is nature being so obstinate?
