So, yes, you'll see some scientists predicting one thing, and some predicting another. That happens when *we aren't sure of the answer*.
edit:
Some things, the science is "settled" about. Global warming being a greenhouse gas, the science is settled. The fact that there is anthropogenic global warming, the science is settled. Some of the broad strokes of the changes warming will cause (more droughts, more floods, etc), the science is settled, though we don't know exactly what will happen exactly where.
But climate is *complex*, so no, we don't understand all the details and interactions yet.
Actually, Maxx doesn't realize that the original method of forecasting the hurricane season comes from the self-professed global warming DENIER William Gray, and his group at Colorado State got it wrong this year. I believe NOAA's wrong predictions are derived from his techniques also. If you look at the NHC staff you'll find multiple students of his working there.
As for why there haven't been many hurricanes in the Atlantic, at least one reason was the large cloud of Saharan dust that got transported over the hurricane breeding ground, which inhibited storm formation.
By the way, the season has not been that quiet in the Eastern Pacific--we are already up to major hurricane Raymond.
EDIT: Perhaps this a rash generalization, but I've come to the conclusion that people named Mike have problems with scientific and mathematical concepts. There are at least 3 of them active in this forum now, and none of them give answers that are worth anything.
>>I know from alarmists that a big hurricane season is definite proof of CAGW.<<
No, you don’t because no one has ever said that.
>> I also know from alarmists that nothing can disprove CAGW <<
Again, that is a stupid lie. Ignoring the fact that there is no “proof” in science (one of the countless things Deniers seem unable to understand or remember), all you have to do is offer a superior explanation that scientifically explains the variance in mean global temperature without using atmospheric CO2 ---imaginary cycles do not count and every known natural driver of temperature has been tested and found to not explain recent temperature.
>>Any thoughts on why predictions were so wrong this year? <<
Deniers are too stupid to have informed opinions on anything that requires critical thought or scientific knowledge.
For climate alarmists any kind of weather is proof of AGW regardless. They're that pathetic. I'm still waiting for more hookers to show up on the street corners here and for more meteors to crash into the earth due to global warming just as AGW proponents are claiming.
once again.. weather in one year is not climate and the Atlantic is not the world.
Pegminer provided your answer.. greater than usual dust from Sahara. This is called noise in the models, just like large unpredictable volcanic eruptions.
did I read the flunkies answer correctly, we're not sure, and all along I thought the science was settled and there's a huge consensus on all things global warming. in a nutshell,, warmers are nutcases
They blamed Hurricane Sandy on global warming. Climate scientists were silent. No big organized pushback in the media to get the facts right. They blamed Hurricane Katrina on global warming. No big organized pushback in the media by scientists at RealClimate and elsewhere to get the facts right.
A warmer lower troposphere is suppose to cause a higher hurricane season, but the lower troposphere is suppose to be a lot warmer than it actually is.
It seems that a planet like Earth should have its own equilibrium after 4.5 billion years especially after it had to deal with dinosaurs for less than 300 years (tic = tongue-in-cheek).
If those AGW theorists would get their heads out of their bums, they would understand that there is no measurable warming in the lower troposphere.
Actually this is a sign of Global Warming according to Richard Lindzen. More warming in the upper troposphere causes an equilibrium where hurricanes don't have the fuel (warmer lower troposphere and cooler upper troposphere) to cause them.
where I come from climate change is called Weather
NOAA predictions were wrong everytime this year .
If they predict a mild winter get out the snow shovels .
I know from alarmists that a big hurricane season is definite proof of CAGW. I also know from alarmists that nothing can disprove CAGW so a weak season is either meaningless or somehow also definite proof of CAGW.
Any thoughts on why predictions were so wrong this year?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/atlantic-hurricane-season-predictions-fall-flat-1.2223427
All to do with AHQ.
Another day --- another failed Warmist prediction.
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