> Climate scientists have an explanation for the 17 year pause in global warming?

Climate scientists have an explanation for the 17 year pause in global warming?

Posted at: 2015-03-12 
Kano is wrong again about the reason for the slowdown in global warming. I have pointed this out time and time again to him and corroborated it with evidence and measurements but he still holds onto his anti-science beliefs.

The pause, or slowdown, is most likely due to an increased uptake of energy by the oceans.

Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade (Guemas et al, 2013) - https://courses.seas.harvard.edu/climate...

Specifically, it is tied to eastern equatorial Pacific cooling thereby increasing the uptake of heat by the ocean to maintain equilibrium.

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling (Kosaka et al, 2013) - https://courses.seas.harvard.edu/climate...

"Here we used an advanced climate model that takes radiative forcing and tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) as inputs. The simulated global-mean temperature is in excellent agreement with observations, showing that the decadal cooling of the tropical Pacific causes the current hiatus."

The paper goes on to state that as little as 8.2% of Earth's surface has very large effects on decadal planetary climate.

"Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Nina-like decadal cooling."

Basically what they are saying is it is due to the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). The question then becomes what are the effects and causes of the PDO. Eastern Pacific cooling seems to have occurred due to increased trade winds in the region.

Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus (England et al, 2014) - http://web.science.unsw.edu.au/~sjphipps...

The Walker Circulation affects convection and precipitation patterns, the easterly Trade Winds, oceanic upwelling and ocean biological productivity. It has been strengthening in the past few decades with the onset of the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Cause or effect?

Recent multidecadal strengthening of the Walker circulation across the tropical Pacific (L’Heureux et al, 2013) - https://courses.seas.harvard.edu/climate...

The intensification of the Walker Circulation, the cooling of the eastern Pacific, and so on seems to be amplified by Atlantic warming since the 1990s.

Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming (McGregor et al, 2014) - http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v...

The Walker Circulation is tied to the ENSO, the PDO, and so on. A weakening of the Walker Circulation is the first sign of an El Nino.

The long term effect of the Walker Circulation is thought to be one of a slowdown, which will have substantial effects on what we currently term 'natural variability' dealing with ENSO intensities. The long term slowdown may result in more frequent and persistent El Nino states.

Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation (Vecchi et al, 2007) -http://www.clidyn.ethz.ch/agcdyn/Papers/...

Slowdown of the Walker circulation driven by tropical Indo-Pacific warming (Tokinaga et al, 2012) - http://www2.ouc.edu.cn/pol/download/Slow...

The effects on the Walker Circulation in a warming climate continue to be a matter of substantial debate though.

Also note that the 'pause' is not 'global' but deals with lower tropospheric temperatures. The 'globe' is quite a lot larger and has many more areas to store heat energy.

World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010 (Levitus et al, 2012) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.10...

Warming of Global Abyssal and Deep Southern Ocean Waters between the 1990s and 2000s: Contributions to Global Heat and Sea Level Rise Budgets (Purkey et al, 2010) - http://www.ccpo.odu.edu/~klinck/Reprints...

Edit: Kano have you been paying any attention at all? This topic deals with the 'pause' in global warming. The 'pause' is due to what is termed natural variation or things that "have always occurred" and is the result of a redistribution of heat not with the energy flux into and out of the system (Though aerosols and other factors do still play a role). Once again, you have little idea what is actually being discussed here.

Jeff M is at least partially right about the pause. BTW, even James Hansen believes in the pause. He has referenced it in a paper he wrote explaining (rationalizing) the pause.

The oceans are the primary driver of the temperautre fluctuations we have been seeing. They are responsible for the relatively rapid increase between 1970 and 2000. They are also responsible for the current pause in warming.

Folks, you don't need to be a published climate scientist to understand this!. It's a 30 year cycle based on the PDO. Yes, the underlying trend is warming, but much slower than during the warm phase. Here is a graph from a peer reviewed publication which illustrates my point.



Look at Jeff M, "The ocean ate my heat." Ha! Ha! That is so phony that even the Dorkster wouldn't sink that low. (Well - - -maybe not!) We have only recently (approximately 1987) established the coordinated data collection for the whole Earth. And we have scant less information about the ocean's temperature. So any wild clam cannot be proven or dis-proven at this time. Now the land surface of the earth is only about 1/3 of the total area of the Earth's surface and that is two dimensional. Look how long it took scientist to get coordinated on just that. Now think of the complexity of the ocean's energy budget. It is three dimensional which adds even more complexity to the accurate measurement. To make such claims as Jeff M has made is not only premature but totally naive.

In direct answer to your question. Yes they do, but none of them make any sense or are premature. They are just covering their derrieres.

http://joemiller.us/2012/08/busted-leake...

But in 2009, as the thermometer hit record lows in America, he and other climate scientists panicked in a flurry of emails: “Skeptics will be all over us – the world is really cooling, the models are no good.”

Pause or no pause, it hardly matter to me. Your models predict exponential (far greater than linear) warming.

So while you predict exponential increases, you have to fight tooth and nail just to show some warming over the last 17 years??? You know there are still some temp measurements that have 1998 as the warmest year on record. Not exactly the scary nightmare scenario we have been led to believe in.

Edit:

I love how they talk about the oceans taking on all of the heat. Interesting, because ALL of theat heat MUST be via thermal conduction. Clearly the air is not getting clearer. Since this type of heat exchange is proportional to the difference in temperature of the two surfaces (the air and the water). And since the ocean are warming far less rapidly than the atmosphere, clearly this problem of the missing heat like a naughty little nymph hiding in the sea, is not only going to continue, but increase. You sure that is where you want your missing nymph to be found?

OMG these deniers are duped by lies and misinformation' There has been nlo pause. here was a slowdown in surfare temps but surface temps stillrose slightly for thaty whole period. The extra heat went into the ocean and the global average temp was still on the increase SO claiming that GW paused is just an ignorant lie

Sceptics are often accused of not being consistent. I would like to point out that the consensus is not consistent either. Some admit to a pause while others do not.

First we had settled science that we could rely on. As in: "We've known about all this for hundreds of years." Then we have a temperature hiccup and now we have found another 30 reasons, and counting, why we have a pause. Were those reasons not in our original models of the settled science? How many more new bits of science will we find? How many will show that temperatures could be decreasing?

Yes sir, wouldn't want anyone able to make it past the peanut gallery to answer.

It interesting. In the old days, I blocked a few folks because I was getting posts deleted.

I never blocked anyone because I didn't like their answers.

Not even once.

As for the 17 year, or any time period, pause, it's hogwash.

Climate is sufficiently complicated that it's not a straight line anything.

Not heat, not rain, not wind, not ocean.

However, something like 90% of global warming is in the ocean, and that has continued to warm.

You wouldn't know "bs" if there was actual "bs" planted by an actual "bull" right in front of you.

There is too much that science doesn't know about "why" there is gravity, let alone "how gravity actually works", which is "exactly" why climate science doesn't know "squat" about why the climate "acts" the way it does. This simple "fact" is what makes you too "ignorant" to understand where Cyclops comes from on his knowledge. Thanks for your un-intellectual question and finger-pointing of who is less intellectual. You win!!!

How does Jeff M get by with telling that Kano is wrong, while he retorts with " ... The pause, or slowdown, is most likely due to an increased uptake of energy by the oceans. ... "?

"Most likely"?

Are you guys such scientific dolts that you can't come up with a "fact"?

Albert Pujols' lifetime batting average is around .320, but he has been on a 0 for 22 slump (for example). Does that mean he is going to get a hit next time at bat?

"Most likely" isn't a reliable scientific conclusion! Science doesn't know "squat" about a great many things that they claim they do "know" about.

The no warming period is from sept 1996 to present
http://i.stack.imgur.com/oPIJr.png

The explanation is that there was no 17 year pause in global warming. http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp...

But what does happen is that 17 years is typically to short of time frame to be statistically significant. Here is an excert from the interview in which denialists claim that Phil Jones said that warming stopped in 1995.

"Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming"

"Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/natur...

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Given that Cyclops is a coward and has blocked most who could answer his question, I though it best to post a retort that can gather some real answers.

I guess 1st would be what 17 years of pause, this is the same number of years kano also uses (?) and still 1998 the denier reference point is only 16 years ago.

2005 & 2010 are the listed warmest years and they are certainly not 17 years ago but 9 & 4 years ago.

I think it becomes obvious why cyclops has to block so many, he knows he is talking BS.

there was no pause

corporations and the koch bros fund phoney studies to fool the gullible

I tried to answer but he has blocked me too. Lol, 7 hours later and still he has no answers.

o