Tossing a dart has a far better chance of getting climate right than a global warming denialist.
Depends on the range.
For next week's weather, a meteorologist will probably do better than the dart board, but a climatologist quite possibly won't. Weather forecasting has gotten a lot better than many people seem to think, but it's the business of meteorologists, not climatologists.
For a year from now, I think a dart board (with reasonable values on it) won't do much worse than a climatologist, and that's a range where meteorology isn't that useful.
But, because a lot of the random variables that make up weather are essentially cyclical, or at least tend to stay within a certain range of values, over the longer term--preferably 30 or so years--the climatologist is *far* more likely to give you an accurate answer than the dart board. The "noise" of all the little cycles gets evened out by averaging.
There are actually techniques for analyzing sample sizes that are insufficient for Gaussian analysis with the worst case being the Cauchy distribution where the Central Limit Theorem does not apply. We use these methods with nuclear physics so they are far better than a random guess otherwise we would not have had the success we did with the atomic bomb and nuclear reactors.
No, your chances would miss the mark by light years. You first need to understand why the earth is warming faster that it's natural cycle. Once you have learned this, then you might be able to throw your dart with a bit of accuracy.
You are trying to forecast the weather with the darts. That is day to day.
Climate is totally different Mexico is hot, Alaska is frigid (those are climates) Alaska will never get to be like Mexico, but it can get warmer. And I do not really care about those people that live near the ocean such as L.A., San Fran. Once the polar ice melts you will be flooded permanently. Now toss your dart.
Yes, even the dart has more sense than a greenie.
Never wrong:
Quote by Noel Brown, UN official: "Entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of "eco-refugees," threatening political chaos."
You wouldn't, by any chance be related to Noel would you?????
I used to be pretty accurate with darts. My money is on the darts.
No, small chamce
If I throw a dart at some paper on a board, are my chances of getting global warming predictions better than, equal to, or less than someone who is a professional global warming scientist?
