http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.10...
Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.10...
From the NIPCC:
"There is little or no evidence that precipitation will become more variable and intense in a warming
world; indeed, some observations show just the opposite.
There has been no significant increase in either the frequency or intensity of stormy weather in the
modern era.
Despite the supposedly “unprecedented” warming of the twentieth century, there has been no
increase in the intensity or frequency of tropical cyclones globally or in any of the specific ocean
basins.
The real-world data overwhelmingly support an opposite conclusion: Weather will more likely be less extreme in a warmer world.
For many years, nearly all climate model output suggested tropical cyclones (TC) should become both
more frequent and more intense as planetary temperatures rise. As a result of such projections,
scientists worked to improve the temporal histories of these particular TC characteristics for various ocean
basins around the world in an effort to evaluate the plausibility of such projections. In nearly all
instances, the research revealed TCs have not been increasing in frequency or magnitude during the era
of modern instrumentation and rise of atmospheric CO2."
http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a...
"The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) is an international panel of nongovernment scientists and scholars who have come together to present a comprehensive, authoritative, and realistic assessment of the science and economics of global warming."
Ignore the crap from the left wing alarmist deniers and their links to left wing alarmist blogs like the huffington puffington post, mother jones or skeptical science.
IPCC says there is NO evidence that climate change will increase hurricanes either in numbers or intensity.
There have been no category 3 or higher, hurricanes making landfall in the US for a long time, but then we have had no global warming for a long time either.
There are lots of bad answers--one guy even quotes the "NIPCC Report", which is propaganda disguised to copy the style of the IPCC report.
Here are the facts:
1. Hurricanes (more generally tropical cyclones) are heat engines that are fueled with water vapor. The water vapor comes from oceans with a sea surface temperature of at least 80 F (26.5 C). If it's colder than that they won't form. If it's warmer than that, they can potentially grow stronger.
2. Global warming increases the sea surface temperatures, and increases the area of the oceans with sea surface temperature of 80 F or higher. If everything else was equal, global warming should generally increase the intensity and duration of hurricanes.
3. It's not clear whether everything else will be equal. In addition to warm oceans, hurricanes require low wind shear. That means that as you go up in the atmosphere it's better for hurricanes if the wind doesn't change speed or direction. Global warming will probably change the wind shear, but exactly how is still being investigated.
4. Some papers have suggested that the intensity of tropical cyclones has been increasing, without affecting the numbers of them. Those papers are suggestive, but far from being "proof".
5. Superstorm Sandy was an enormous storm that was fueled by abnormally warm mid-Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Even though it was barely hurricane strength when it went ashore (although not a hurricane because of its structure), it had a very large fetch (wind area) which resulted in a large area with high storm surge.
6. Whether or not the U.S. gets struck by hurricanes is not a particularly good indicator of anything but luck.
7. Hurricane Amanda, in the Eastern Pacific, is the strongest May storm on record--it was almost a Category 5.
No they say Sandy was worse because rising sea levels
3mm but it was really high tide . It was like the perfect storm
when a cold front hit it too.
Hurricanes in the Atlantic are fueled by warm water west of Africa.
This year the water isn't quite as warm as it has been.
However, warmer water does tend to make more, and stronger hurricanes.
This fall is supposed to be an el nino, which could be good or bad.
If the upper level winds are strong, sometimes that "blows the top" off the hurricane,
so that it doesn't form properly.
That's good, when it happens.
On the other hand, el nino tends to bring more rain and flooding, which isn't good.
The prediction that I read was for fewer hurricanes this fall.
That would be good.
But it's not necessarily going to be the case.
google with the words:
hurricanes climate site:edu
Site:EDU will get Universities.
(Site:Gov will also scan government sites like NASA)
One would expect the intensity and duration to increase as the major source of energy is from ocean temperatures. Deniers point to number of hurricanes to obscure other facts. Even claiming the earth is not warming in face data which they will claim is fabricated or false.
http://www2.cgd.ucar.edu/research/cgd-cl...
no
I am doing a project and I have to answer whether or not hurricanes intensify by global warming or not. and why. I can't seem to find any information, so if you could help find some that would be great!
