Well, if DrRoySpencer, and the climatedepot blog say no, what else matters?
And no, it's not a claim made every year.
There are outlier years, where world temperature is hotter, or colder, than the norm.
Maybe 1998 is the best example of that, although, in the case of 1998, we know the reason - el nino.
This year, there is not an obvious reason.
Quite clearly, the world has been warming, but to some degree, the rate may have slowed recently.
It could be that 2014 will see a return to the "normal" rate of heating, given what's been happening for the last half century or more.
I thought climate was about long term trends. I mean we spent half a day yesterday talking about that. And now one year is important?
I'll just wait for the Gringos and the pegminers to show up and clarify that one year is not enough data to come to any sort of conclusion. I'll also expect them to question why the one number which wasn't reported was how much the record was (or will be) broken by. And then they'll point out that number is smaller than the measurement error and we really can't say for certain which year was warmest. And then I'll expect them to question why only one data set was used for this claim and not an average of all them; or an explanation that some other data sets won't have 2014 as hottest (used to be "warmest", didn't it??).
Any guesses on how long I'll be waiting?
After clicking a few links on salons page I got to the world meteorological organizations press release on the status of global climate from Dec. 3, 2014. Here is what they say on global temperature...
"Based on an average of three leading global data sets for January to October, a PRELIMINARY
estimate concludes that the global average temperature in 2014 was 0.57 ± 0.10 °C2 (1.03 ±
0.18 °F) above the 1961-1990 average of 14.00°C (57.2 °F). This is 0.09°C (0.16 °F) above
the average temperature of the past 10 years (2004-2013), which in turn was 0.48 °C (0.86
°F) above the 1961-1990 average.
IF November and December maintain the same global temperature anomaly value, the BEST ESTIMATE for 2014 according to this measure would place it as the warmest year on record.
The year, however, is NOT YET OVER. Comparing January to October 2014 to the same period in
earlier years, 2014 is so far tied for warmest with 2010. It is important to note that differences in the rankings of the warmest years are a matter of only a few hundredths of a degree, and
that different data sets show slightly different rankings."
To sum, if I may, 2014 is on track to be the hottest year on record, currently tied with 2010 for January to October. Record years of past include 2010, 2005, and the major el Ni?o year of 1998. They do point out that the difference in temps will be ever so slight.
"2014 was hot. Almost certainly the hottest year on record..." So salon would be correct since they used that key word "Almost."
EDIT: "Global average temperatures are also estimated using reanalysis systems, which use a
weather forecasting system to combine many sources of data to provide a more complete
picture of global temperatures. According to data from the reanalysis produced by the
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the January to October combined
land and ocean global average temperature would place 2014 as third or fourth highest for
this dataset, which runs from 1958."
It seems some of the info presented by Salon was lost in translation? Although I did not read the article fully.
Well I still consider 1998 to be the hottest year on record, but yes it will probably go down as the hottest by 0.1C or some such figure (so what) being a partial El Nino, next year will see a return to more La Nina like conditions and it will be cooler I expect.
We are looking at an increase of .01C over the previous record from 5 years ago. .01C of warming every five years is not a catastrophe.
Even if it was .05C of warming every five years, it is not a problem.
Since 1998, the warming over 16 years is less than .1C.
Don't they make this claim every year? This is just more hot air from the propaganda wing of AGW.
But considering how frigging cold it was last winter, for the entire Northern hemisphere, I find the claim less than credible.
Don't hold your breath Ottawa unless you can hold it for an eternity. According to satellite record, it isn't.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-globa...
http://www.climatedepot.com/2014/12/04/d...
No, the "pause" will continue, no matter whether it's warmer or not.
http://www.salon.com/2014/12/22/climate_change_by_the_numbers_the_cold_data_that_drove_a_record_hot_year/
I know this was written by Salon, a liberal rag, but let us not sink to the depths of the greenie logic and use that as an only method to trash this.
