Yes. The warming during the 80's 90's 2000 decades were from extreme solar activity (modern solar maximum) and from a positive PDO and AMO
Now we are coming into a modern solar minimum, the PDO is now negative and in a few years time the AMO is expected to become negative, I don't expect any warming until at least 2050 and probably cooling before then.
No this has nothing to do with CO2 lagging temps, CO2 is rising from man made reasons, but CO2 once you get past 150ppm has little effect on temperature.
Yes there are reasons for it, & sometime in the future someone will probably discover what they are.
Unfortunately we can only live in the present, where those who are paid to discover those reasons are at the moment apparently completely mystified.
#1 Maybe, but probably not.
#2 No, CO2 levels continue to rise more or less as projected while average global temperature has flatlined for more than a decade.(no trend)
#3 It can last as long as it takes or until funding agency's find more useful things to study. whichever comes first.
#4 ?
"Somethings happening here, What it is ain't exactly clear"
The scientists were required to produce bogeymen to frighten the gullible into accepting an unpalatable agenda. Hence the warming of 1998. That same bogeyman has now turned to bite their @rses in the form of no further warming since then.
The story of Chicken little and the sky falling should be required reading in kindergartens.
I'm partially to blame. In order to show that we have been warming since the 1970s, we had to really work the data over. We had the urban heat island effect working naturally in our favor, of course, and we adjusted some of the thermometer records--old temps were cooled and new temps were enhanced. Some of the thermometer record stations were not cooperating with a warming trend and we simply did away with them. That gave us the unmistakable warming trends leading up to 1998.
From 1998, data fudges became harder because we had fudged so much to get to where we are now and the trend flattened. That's why we've had recent years that are in the top ten of warmest years in spite of reams of anecdotal evidence to the contrary.
First identify the hiatus you are talking about.
Look at where global warming is going:
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data...
93% to Oceans
2% to Continents
1% to Glaciers and ice caps
1% to Arctic Sea Ice
0.2% to the Greenland Ice Sheet
0.2% to the Antarctic Ice Sheet
2.3% to the Atmosphere
When people initially became aware that global warming was happening -- climate scientists in the 1950s, masses in the 2000s, we focused on temperatures of the atmosphere because that is where the cause is located and because it is easiest to measure. But some people are rather slow to educate themselves about where the added energy is going, even though the IPCC made it very clear to those who really wanted to know, 6 years ago.
I assume you are asking why the 2.3% in the atmosphere is not increasing as rapidly as the other 96.7%. First of all, the atmosphere is warming at a linear rate of 0.14 degrees per decade according to the satellite record which is also available online 24/7 for anyone who really wants to know. Second the appearance of a hiatus is only because of the big temporary warming spike of warming in 1998. To see through these spikes, statisticians use regression aided by tools such as least squares at the most basic. There is always some randomness, but that does not mean a trend is gone.
This little animation gives a very clear view short versus long term trends. Worth watching if you haven't seen it.
http://spark.ucar.edu/dog-walking-weathe...
The environment is still rapidly warming. We see this in the warming oceans and the resulting sea level rise. As long as sea level is rising on a long term basis, we know that more energy is coming into the system than going out. Only a small change in the rates of 90% oceans versus 2% troposphere could cause the troposphere to maintain temperature with just a little extra warming of the oceans. La Nina patterns have been prevalent over the past decade. La Nina currents cause more ice cold water from the deep Pacific to come to the surface and that causes heat to more rapidly transfer from the air to the water and thus cool the air and warm the water. That alone could explain a pause in tropospheric warming. Also we are now seeing clear evidence that lakes are now warming.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.10... This could be part of the ongoing 2.1% of warming on the continents, but could also be an increase the is changing the portion of energy remaining in the troposphere.
In any case, there is no hiatus in global warming. With the rate of warming by the oceans it appears that the environment is warming at an accelerating rate. I wish global warming had stopped. It would be so easy to one small detail and stick our heads back in a hole. But that won't solve anything.
An alarmist can tell you.
1) There is NO pause.
2) If there was a pause, which there isn't, it has been proven to have been caused by the missing heat hiding in the deep ocean, Chinese aerosols, stratospheric water vapor, increased volcanic activity and your mamma's cooking.
Yes, it is the Sun. We have been saying this all along.
Because it wasn't there in the first place
Even from the alarmist view point there should be no leveling.
1. Does the plateau justify a cooling trend?
2. Does this give a real life example of CO2 lagging temperatures
3. Are time constraints actually visualize...how long can such a thing last?
4. If so has it ever been accurately measured?
