Guest post by Pavel Belolipetsky
The IPCC, Bob Tisdale and others have presented hypotheses to explain 20th century warming. This article presents another. My co-workers and I call it the “Shifts” hypothesis. And we consider it to have advantages over other hypotheses in terms of simplicity, consistency over time, and homogeneity for the two considered regions.
Its simplicity is that it uses only two factors to obtain an explanation of general features in each considered region. And it displays consistency over time because it provides the same explanation for the warming of the beginning and of the end of 20th century. This consistency enabled a fit of linear regression coefficients of data from first part of century (before 1950) to obtain similar reconstruction for the second part (after 1950). The homogeneity between regions means that shifts occur at similar times in the temperature time series of the tropics and of the north middle latitudes although the two time series differ. This homogeneity provides confidence that the Shifts Hypothesis applies globally.
It is an old idea that climate exists in “regimes” (or states) and that climate variations often occur in the form of shifts between them. Thus, regime shifts are rapid reorganizations from one relatively stable state to another. The idea gained in acceptance in the 1990s.
Many articles have been published [1-20], showing that climate shifts appear to be an essential feature of Earth’s climate system. Yasunaka and Hanawa [20] described a “regime shift” as an abrupt transition from one quasi-steady climatic state to another, and its transition period is much shorter than the lengths of the individual epochs of each climatic state. Kevin Trenberth [15] was among the first to characterize a climate shift and reported a “different regime after 1976”. Douglass and Knox [6] wrote that abrupt shifts in Earth’s climate system are common.
The poles (particularly the Arctic Ocean), Greenland, and northern Canada, Alaska, and Siberia are the best indicators. You could also look at Antarctica, but due to the ocean currents, there isn't as drastic of a change in the Southern Hemisphere.
As CR says it is primarily the northern hemisphere, the Arctic area and US as well as the Russian Federation in terms of increased temps. Australia as well. Africa and Asia are showing extreme episodes as well
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/past-show...
consider the poling and wiring of the planet (look at earth at night pictures and see for yourself, the areas of HEAVIER concentration of electric light and the areas that, by comparison, are underdeveloped)
Global warming is faster close to the poles.
Arctic and Antarctic ice fields, both of which are growing.
its for a class i need this before Friday, and please say why the area would be of interest.
