> If I predict that 2015 is going to be the hottest year on record, am I a genius?

If I predict that 2015 is going to be the hottest year on record, am I a genius?

Posted at: 2015-03-12 
No need to predict. 2015 is the hottest year ever in all of history. Even though this year just started.

It would make you a chicken counter before your eggs hatched. I predict that 2015 is going to be one of the hottest years on record because, one, it probably will be, two, the record in the past has been so manipulated that the "record" is warped, and three the ocean has a way of keeping the temperatures from varying too much. Since it has been nice and warm, it is likely to stay that way a while.

Random numbers do not always create a hockey-stick curve. This was reported by McIntyre and McKitrick, but they generated 10,000 series of random data and then only picked the 1% that looked most like hockey sticks.

You can read it in their code here:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10....

It seems likely that 2015 will be a record-breaking hot year. It doesn't take a genius to work out that with a reasonable chance of El Nino combined with man-made global warming, there're good odds on seeing another record-breaking hot year.

Now if you successfully predicted a record-breaking worldwide cold year without the help of a volcano or meteor strike, then you'd have a claim to genius.

Yes 2015 will be the hottest yea,r until 2016 arrives that is

You would fit right in with the rest of the liberals.

No you are and always will be a moron

Or is the fix already in no matter what the actual temperatures are? Remember that even random numbers would cause a hockey stick curve because the "filtering" and data massaging was just right.