"SPIEGEL: How long will it still be possible to reconcile such a pause in global warming with established climate forecasts?
Storch: If things continue as they have been, in five years, at the latest, we will need to acknowledge that something is fundamentally wrong with our climate models. A 20-year pause in global warming does not occur in a single modeled scenario. But even today, we are finding it very difficult to reconcile actual temperature trends with our expectations." http://www.spiegel.de/international/worl...
That was 1 1/2 years ago so I'm going to go with an expert-supported answer: 3 1/2 years.
In my mind there are two scenarios:
1. The near surface air temperatures have paused, which means they were warming beforehand. That means some process that was warming has now switched off or reduced in magnitude.
2. The near surface air temperatures have paused, which means they were warming beforehand. This means some cooling process has started that is balancing out the warming.
Only the first is inconsistent with AGW. Therefore, for me to accept that AGW is wrong, skeptics must produce a model in which the near surface air temperatures rise then flat line for 18 years in a manner consistent with the data, declare the factors that were responsible, and show experimentally that those factors have in fact altered by the amount required by the model.
Computer models only reveal probabilities based on the info they are fed. To call the outcome is fact, is merely a manufactured lie.
Prove it's happening at all, It's just another denialist lie
10,000 years
The "global warming" pause is now 218 months long (18 years, 2 months) This is 3 years and 2 months longer than Dr. Phil Jones stated was the starting point of being concerned that the climate models were wrong. At what point do you start to reconsider the reality of so-called "global warming"? Would it be after 20 years of no warming? Or maybe 25?
