The guy etc: Predicted, by whom? More denialist lies
These goons that’s who:
? AntLPredicted by who? These Scientists:
? Andrew : 'that guy' and Antarctic say, predicted by whom, deniers just won't answer that point, is it because they have no answer.
? Peg: That prediction was apparently made by a single person and from what I recall it was not published, but presented at a conference.
? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm
? http://www.treehugger.com/clean-technolo...
? http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/20...
?
?
Course these people never said it, it was all Bobby's dream in the shower.
That prediction was apparently made by a single person and from what I recall it was not published, but presented at a conference. If you took 100 other scientists that study the cryosphere, I doubt that any of them would agree.
Clearly, though, the arctic ice pack is decreasing each summer--it doesn't take any fancy model to come up with a date--you could easily come up with your own number using Excel...but to do that you would have to care about the truth.
Predicted by who? NSIDC estimate that the Arctic may be ice free in summer by around 2030, lat time I looked at a calendar that is 17 years away, but then of course that's why you have no source for your claim and deniers usually use their own blogs to support this nonsense, which mis-quote scientists or the claims made by just one scientists that the rest of the science community never took seriously.
But then that's the denier game take one persons comment and pretend it's a science wide estimate, please post your link and prove me wrong !
NSIDC talking about 2030 (after the record melt in 2007)
http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaicem...
Scientists have certainly gotten predictions wrong, but not in ways that help the denier cause, Portland talks of 2100 to 2040 as various predictions, but in fact they are the same prediction, which had to be revised several times as ice melted faster than had been estimated, this is also true of Arctic permafrost which scientists thought would not be a problem for decades yet, but it is melting now. Of course most denier comment on scientists and incorrect estimates are (pardon the pun) just hot air, they are empty comment deniers won't clarify because they are simply not true and if they do try and supply backup it is invariably some rot from their own blogs that has no real validity and has in fact been shown to be wrong.
For quite a while they claimed temp rise had fallen well below IPCC estimates when it quite simple had not, one tried to correct me recently on this by posting what he claimed was from the next IPCC report, but this does not change the fact that deniers had simple lied (based on the info from AR4) about the fall below AR4 IPCC estimates and had done so for years. You get the same when they talk about the "discredited hockeystick graph" again a straight out lie, ask them to post the scientific proof of this discrediting and watch them squirm as they can't, again it's just the rot from their own blogs where they say what they want and don't need to prove anything for their audience, an audience that just don't ask such questions.
"will there be an arctic ice free summer this year?"
No, ask again around 2030, although by then I think, most deniers will have gone the way of the Dodo.
A number of top deniers keep trying to push this rubbish as 'that guy' and Antarctic say, predicted by whom, deniers just won't answer that point, is it because they have no answer.
I've seen a number like Flozzie try to push this point and they usually just ignore the genuine answers and go with some denier rubbish, from what I have seen you will do the same.
It seems Ant was correct as you have now posted a link and it does relate to 'just one' scientist the same one even Portland mentioned
Here is the link you where to scared to post.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stmsc... to post
2030 is the date used even in this by Dr Serreze, maybe you should have read it.
"Models predict that this decline of the September sea-ice extent will continue in the future, with some models showing summer ice-free conditions (commonly defined as less than 1 million km2 of sea ice extent in September) by the mid to late 21st century." -- http://www.asp.ucar.edu/spotlight/alexan...
Computer models for poorly understood phenomena like global climate conditions have been notoriously unreliable. [2] Unfortunately, this is what climate science has largely become; much like Astrology. The computer models cannot be taken seriously until they have been verified by a record of being able to make valid predictions. Hind casts cannot be accepted as verification. Also, there are many computer modelers, and Professor Maslowski has a habit of producing models that show faster climate change than his colleagues do:
"Using supercomputers to crunch through possible future outcomes has become a standard part of climate science in recent years.
"Professor Maslowski's group, which includes co-workers at Nasa and the Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences (PAS), is well known for producing modelled dates that are in advance of other teams.
"These other teams have variously produced dates for an open summer ocean that, broadly speaking, go out from about 2040 to 2100." -- http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
I doubt that it will get to the 1 square megameter to be considered ice free this summer. A megameter is defined as 1 fortieth of the circumference of Earth = 625 miles
I am far from alone in this prediction:
"Mark Serreze, a scientist with the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), still believes 2030 is a reasonable estimate, deeming Wieslaw's projections as "a little aggressive . . . simply because the luck of the draw means natural variability can kick in to give you a few years in which the ice loss is a little less than you've had in previous years." -- http://www.treehugger.com/clean-technolo...
The 2012 season was clearly an outlier, but even for that minimum, the ice never got as low as 3 square Mm. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charct...
So far this year, the sea ice extent has best followed what happened in 2009 when the sea ice minimum was 5.9 square Mm. http://arctic-roos.org/observations/sate...
It seems crazy to do linear extrapolations where monitoring has only been going on since 1978. [1]
For all we know, this is just normal variation. The modelers got excited because there was less ice this year than last. It should be no surprise that this is no longer the situation. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
You can graph the ice extent interactively, but just looking at the data (red = Arctic, green = Antarctic) it would be surprising if the minimum was that low. http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/nsidc-s...
Some think the Arctic Oscillation is more important than temperature variation in determining the change in sea ice. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_osci...
Here is Arctic Ice graphed against Arctic Oscillation: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-am...
That would indicate less ice this year. That would reduced shipping costs. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007...
If the warmists were selling an investment security, rather than global warming, the SEC would see to it that each of them would get 10 years in the slammer.
Forecasts by experts are not significantly better than forecasts by novices. The computer models have been shown to have no predictive skill whatsoever.
If the arctic were to have an ice free summer, that would not prove that AGW was the cause.
Predicted, by whom? More denialist lies
of course, has any prediction by the warmunists not come true, I think they are batting 1000, so my money is on the warmers
As predicted?
