> Does global warming really have effect on natural disasters?

Does global warming really have effect on natural disasters?

Posted at: 2015-03-12 
Natural disasters fall into many different categories, some of which are affected by global warming and some of which aren’t.

Earthquakes are geological events and their has been no significant change in either the frequency or magnitude of these events in recent times. Over the last 40 years there has been a slight increase in the number of large earthquakes of magnitude 6 and above, this has increased from an average of 151 per year to 168; at the same time the total number of earthquakes (mag 2 and above) has decreased from 24777 to 22507 per year. These changes are well within the bounds of statistical variation and nothing should be implied by them.

Earthquake database: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/e...

The number of meteorological natural disasters has massively increased in recent years, these are the events that can be affected by global warming, but there are other factors involved as well.

For example, in the 1950’s there were just three major forest fires in the world. In the 2000’s that number had gone up to 95. It would be a mistake to claim that global warming was the only reason, we have to look at other factors such as an expanding population, the increased likelihood of arson, forestry management schemes, the number and extent of afforested areas etc.

http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/thumbs/1...

One common mistake is to assume that forest fires only happen when it’s hot. This certainly increases the chances but other factors such as fuel conditions, aridity and humidity need to be taken into consideration as well.

If climate change means that a particular area becomes hotter and drier then the probability of a forest fire happening will significantly increase. So yes, global warming does increase the number of forest fires, but so do many other factors as well.

Events such as heatwaves and floods are primarily dictated by nature, we have very little direct influence upon them. Such events provide more reliable metrics as to how climate change may be affecting us.

If we look at major flooding we find that there has been a six-fold increase in the number of such events since 1950. Whilst humans might affect flooding on a local scale by changing the course of a river or reclaiming floodplains, these events are the major floods that are way beyond the scope of human causation.

http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/thumbs/1...

Similarly we find that there has been a very significant increase in the number of heatwaves. Global warming began to take off in about 1980, in the 100 years prior to this there had only been five major heatwaves, that’s the same number as we’ve had in the last two years. Historically there would have been a major heatwave about once every 17 years, now we have them every two years. Prior to 1980 no heatwave had an official death-toll of over 1,000, since 1980 there have been six such events claiming about 140,000 lives.

http://www.emdat.be/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nat...

Storms are a different matter and it’s difficult to say what effect, if any, global warming is having on them. Storm activity follows a 60 year cycle and we’ve just passed the peak of that cycle. Unfortunately this cycle ties in with the warming trend and this makes it impossible to say how much effect the natural cycle is having and how much is down to global warming. It will probably be another 30+ years before we can confidently say what effect global warming is having.

Storms take their energy from warm waters, if the sea-surface temperature is below 28°C there is rarely enough energy to feed into the storm system. As the oceans warm up the theory is that more energy will be available to create storm conditions so we would expect an increase in both frequency and intensity consequent to global warming. At present there isn’t enough reliable data to back this up.

First, the answer is independent of whether the planet warms by natural or anthropogenic causes, so ignore the boneheads that try to deny global warming, because they are almost certainly only denying anthropogenic global warming. Clearly the Earth has warmed over the past century and may continue to warm, for whatever reason.

Brush fires are certainly affected by global warming, because they are dependent on more long-term changes in temperature and rainfall patterns than other. Where I live, projections for weather changes under global warming are to have longer, drier drought periods punctuated by wetter years in between. That is essentially a perfect recipe for worse brush fires.

Hurricanes (tropical cyclones) are most dependent on two things (1) water vapor supplied by moist air from warm ocean surfaces and (2) lack of vertical wind shear (change of wind direction with height). Clearly global warming will increase the surface area of ocean warm enough to produce hurricanes, and higher ocean temperatures raise the potential strength of hurricanes that do occur. It's a little more difficult to figure out what's going to happen with vertical wind shear. Superficially, less wind shear would be expected, because it's associated with horizontal temperature gradients through something called the "thermal wind equation." However, recent modeling suggests that there may be increased wind shear that will interfere with hurricane formation, so I would say the jury is still out on just how global warming will affect hurricanes. It will certainly increase the range of hurricanes, and the potential intensity of storms that do occur.

Tornadoes are somewhat different than hurricanes. They are primarily dependent on (1) large convective available potential energy (CAPE) and (2) strong wind shear. The CAPE also depends on the amount of water vapor, so it may be increased in a warmer world. However, it also depends on several other things, so they may not all act in the same direction. Wind shear is dependent on horizontal temperature gradients, and those should generally be less in a warmer world. I would expect the main effects would be to shift the tornado season earlier in the year and to push it farther poleward. I don't think anyone really has a good idea whether to expect a larger or smaller number of tornadoes.

I would not expect earthquakes to be affected to any great extent, since they are mainly connected with solid earth geophysics. There are a few coupling mechanisms that might change things, though. As ice sheets melt, there will be earthquakes associated with isostatic rebound of the land surface. These do not tend to be very large, though. More dubious would be a connection between pressure associated with air masses and earthquakes. As air masses shift, they do cause a small change in the atmospheric pressure, which will also cause a small change in the lithostatic pressure. Whether these are large enough to cause any appreciable change to the timing of earthquakes associated with plate tectonics is not known. I would not think it would be a significant factor, since these are small changes in a term that's already quite small compared to the lithostatic pressure.

Other than in Greenland and Antarctica, and not now but during the rebound of the land after the ice melts, global warming has no effect on Earthquakes. Contrary to denialist claims, "warmers" do not blame rvrrything on "climate change" to scare people. To say that global warming could cause anything must have a scientific basis. If you don't believe that global warming can cause ice to melt, just take your ice cube tray out of the refrigerator.

Global warming does not cause cold weather. For global warming to cause cold weather would violate the laws of themodynamics. But cold weather still happens in a warming world. That does not mean that it is "climate change" rather than global warming. Global warming means slightly less cold weather; the difference is disappointingly small for those of us who don't like the cold.

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Earthquakes? Not a chance. No possible physical linkage.

The others? Theoretically yes, however there is currently no empirical evidence demonstrating any negative imapcts. What you are seeing thus far is well within the norms for how our planet works and will continue to work well after we, people, are gone.

Global warming is nothing to do with earth quakes, Earth quakes is happening due to plates under the ground changes its position.Same like TSUNAMI. Global warming attacks the glaciers and make it melt and huge amount of flood comes and water level raises.

Global warming does not exist. The Earth has been cooling for over a decade.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut...

That should satisfy the fact that the earth's temperature is not driven by man in any way shape or form.

Those occurrences, such a tornadoes, are not increasing. The news media hypes them. That is a plan to scare you. Then the government can control you.

Quote by Club of Rome: "In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill....All these dangers are caused by human intervention....and thus the “real enemy, then, is humanity itself....believe humanity requires a common motivation, namely a common adversary in order to realize world government. It does not matter if this common enemy is “a real one or….one invented for the purpose."

Are you scared by all these calamities? Yup. That is because they want you to be scared then you give the government more power.

"Fear is the most debilitating of all human emotions. A fearful person will do anything, say anything, accept anything, reject anything, if it makes him feel more secure for his own, his family's or his country's security and safety, whether it actually accomplishes it or not...."

"It works like a charm. A fearful people are the easiest to govern. Their freedom and liberty can be taken away, and they can be convinced to believe that it was done for their own good - to give them security. They can be convinced to give up their liberty - voluntarily."

―Gene E. Franchini, retired Chief Justice of the New Mexico Supreme Court

So by falling into the trap of fear, you are doing just what the evil people want you to do.

Oh definitely. I'm not sure about this statistic, but I think the number of floods per year across the world has increased 10fold since the 1960s. Not 100% sure though

Global warming has no effect on anything because it doens't exist. People try to call it a scientific fact, but it's really just a fabrication of those politicians who benefit millions from its movement. The scientists are funded the government, so of course they'll say what the government wants.

And you are right. The government never has anything to say, they are a bunch of tyrannical frauds who only know two things: how to lie and take the 5th Amendment while taking it away from we the people.

global warming has definitely something to do with all these disasters. had it been not so, the extreme changes in the past few decades would have occured. weather in all parts of the world have drastically changed and fluctuate often. weather conditions are not as timely as they used to be few decades ago. the extreme industrialization, and pollution have caused the climatic conditions to change drastically and hence resulting such natural disasters.

Lately all over the world earthquakes has increased over the years. Tornadoes, brush fires etc. why dont the government talk about these kind of things. what if something real bad happens one day. I feel like the government never has anything to say which is why I hate them

Statistically tornadoes and hurricanes are down in frequency, the costs are up because there are more building and homes now,

But media reporting is more extreme, you hear of disasters fr0om all over the world now.

The climate has always changed

Not sure about earthquakes. They are caused by tectonic plates shifting usually.

But certainly it is possible global warming is contributing to such things as avalanches, hurricanes, wildfires, floods, etc.

I probably wouldn't say that these things are all caused by global warming, or that it is the only factor, but it is worth considering that it is a factor.

yes, the climate in summer is higher and higher year by year, and all the ice will get thawed

No, because there is no man-made Global Warming.

Top climate scientists say there is no man-made Global Warming.

The Great Global Warming Swindle



yes i think one reason is deforestation to some extent.

"Statistically tornadoes and hurricanes are down in frequency"

Severe hurricanes have been UP in the past 10 years.

i think there is no global warming. it is a lie