> Are Climate Scientists biased?

Are Climate Scientists biased?

Posted at: 2015-03-12 
All scientists are biased. In my field of biostatistics for pharmaceuticals, we run double-blind studies to eliminate most forms of bias and it can still be easily argued that some bias still slips in.

Climate science does not allow for the luxury of performing double-blind experiments. there are MANY assumptions that are used in climate science and every assumption adds some bias, especially when the assumption is made under unblinded conditions.

So when I say that the cliamte scientists are baised, I do not mean that as an insult. In fact, while I think their modeling is off, I am not suggesting that they are purposefully adding bias, or that they are not trying to work towards the best solution.

Simply put, most of the funding for climate change is dependent upon fear of man-made climate change. Further, the political drive to have clear answers is enormous. Thus their bias causes them to overestimate as this is the position that is most advantageous for them, AND the certainty with which they report their results is extremely exagerrated.

What becomes more tiresome is that the warmers who use the research of the scientists have little scientific knowledge. They tend to exagerrate the certainty and the estimates more than was intended by the scientists.

Let me give you an example. One scientist ran a model that was an extremely unlikely worst case scenario, It was published in a science magazine as a certainty. To give you how "worst case" this was, it projected 10 degrees of warming with a CO2 concentration of 700 ppm. During the Jurassic period, the CO2 concentration was 2200 ppm, more than 3 times the CO2 in the worst-case model, and the temps during the Jurassic period were 2 degrees lower than that of the Jurassic period.

C,

Increased severity of storms??? And I assume that you can provide a study showing a statistically significant increase in the intensity of storms???

Ohhh, I am sorry. I am asking you to use science again. Mea culpa.

FSM,

If one person came up with a reason that billions of dollars of funding should stop flowing to climate change scientists, he would instantly be stoned by the scientists. Do you really think the scientists who are now out of a job are going to praise him? I am sure factory workers praise the people who invent machines that replace them.

Edit:

Please note that many warmers here are silly enough to think that politics does not in any way influence the science as they continually reference the IPCC report. To find the irony in this, simply figure out what the I in IPCC stands for.

Yes. James Annan has written on his blog

Interestingly, one of them stated quite openly in a meeting I attended a few years ago that he deliberately lied in these sort of elicitation exercises (i.e. exaggerating the probability of high sensitivity) in order to help motivate political action.

For other possible explanations of warming, the scientists adopt a line of prove it. For CO2, any helpful evidence is immediately adopted, and not looked at skeptically. That is why things like the hockey stick get promoted. Claims of glaciers melting in a few decades get put into a report with no review.

I am sure there is bias in each of us, even if we do not repress the bias in the long run the bias will be exposed.

Right now there are thousands of scientist all over the world working on various parts of climate science. If one of those scientist could come up with a reason why AGW was false, he or she would probably become an instant hero and millionaire. It is one of those things many of us, including non scientist like myself, would want science to be wrong about.

All scientists are biased as are all humans in general. It stands to reason that climate scientists are not immune. Now how that affects this issue is a matter of great debate.

The source of your friends thought about looking down one specific route probably relates to the IPCC, which is considered the most comprehensive collection of climate science by various scientists. This group was formed in 1988 to investigate if CO2 from fossil fuels contributes to global warming.

This can be seen in the original IPCC definition of climate change in its first report from 1995:

“a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over considerable time periods.”

That is absolutely false. James Hansen who is was a top climate scientist is now a full time Communist advocate. He was the head of climate research in the US and was caught endorsing political candidates, which is illegal for a public figure in that position, taking bribes, and participating in radical demonstrations, again against the rules of propriety and illegal for one in his position.

http://www.c3headlines.com/fabricating-f...

Here Jimmy is caught cooking the books. That certainly shows bias. And there are more like him.

They are scientists and their first priority is the science I don't think there is any field without bias, but having a bias and being able to use real science to back it up is still science. Compare this to all the denier BS which isn't real climate science but lies and misinformation or aliens or science that is irrelevant to GW

Is is a fact that for decades, the rise in temperature is comparable to the rise in CO2. A monkey could draw the logical conclusion. it is a fact that the planet has never warmed this quickly. before modern times this amount of warming took mare than a thousand years and now it less than 200 years

Lo and behold, one of the first predictions of GW was an increase in the severity of storms and sh*t if they weren't right.



NO. Here is "what is going on":

Top scientists have had consistent conclusions for over twenty years that the unusually rapid global climate change of the past century has been mostly human-caused, and for the past 10 years nearly all indications are that this is likely to have significantly negative long term consequences for the global economy. Fossil Fuel companies have often denied this science and Republican politicians in the U.S. have been adamant lately in espousing such anti-science denial. A range of anti-science con artists, pretending to be the "other side" of a scientific "debate" on whether anthropogenic climate change is a serious long term issue, are prevalent on-line. Yahoo Answers is loaded with deniers-in-training trying to copy-paste such deception. At Yahoo Answers there is no penalty for giving deliberately false answers. and half the "top ten" contributors in the category "global warming" are hard-core anti-science serial liars.

Here immediately below are some links pertaining to the science. The last is good compilation debunking nearly every half-way believable anti-science myth of the deniers. See under Sources at the bottom for some background on where the anti-science denial movement comes from and why it is so widespread.

U.S. National Academy of Sciences, 2010:

http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record...

“Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for a broad range of human and natural systems.”

http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpine...

“Choices made now about carbon dioxide emissions reductions will affect climate change impacts experienced not just over the next few decades but also in coming centuries and millennia…Because CO2 in the atmosphere is long lived, it can effectively lock the Earth and future generations into a range of impacts, some of which could become very severe.”

http://www.physics.fsu.edu/awards/NAS/

“The Academy membership is composed of approximately 2,100 members and 380 foreign associates, of whom nearly 200 have won Nobel Prizes. Members and foreign associates of the Academy are elected in recognition of their distinguished and continuing achievements in original research; election to the Academy is considered one of the highest honors that can be accorded a scientist or engineer.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_...

http://www.aps.org/publications/apsnews/...

http://www.aip.org/history/climate/timel...

http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index...

http://www.amazon.com/Rough-Climate-Chan...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stern_Revie...

http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument...

"climate scientists have been looking down one specific route of climate change for the past 30 years"

This is false. Should you try reading the IPCC Assessment Reports then you would know that whoever is telling you this is incorrect when they do.

FAR - IPCC First Assessment Report

SAR - IPCC Second Assessment Report

TAR - IPCC Third Assessment Report

AR4 _ IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

AR5 - IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

You can find all of these reports here: https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_dat...

As you can see, all things are being considered as to why our planet is warming.

Scientist may be biased, but the observations are what they are. There is no scientific theory that better explains these observations than does the AGWT. No other theory, scientific or otherwise, even comes in as a close second.

You'd be surprised by what people think. There are those who think that scientists are part of a Marxist conspiracy.

For the most part, those who claim that all of the scientists in the world are mistaken say such things out of the own ignorance. They are not aware of how long people have been studying climate and the greenhouse effect and how much research has been conducted.

I'd ask your "someone" to explain themselves. How would they expect research to be conducted differently if scientists were different? How would somebody look for answers differently? When somebody directly measures a decline in outgoing long wave radiation, how would an unbiased scientist interpret that differently than that outgoing long wave radiation declined?

You someone is just an ignorant. If you ask them about climatology you will find that they are a know-nothing totally unfamiliar with the research. These people just say stupid things.

You can find a good summary of the "how we know" from the American National Academy of Science.

There is a webcast next week

https://nas-sites.org/americasclimatecho...

There is their older pamphlet available for download

https://nas-sites.org/americasclimatecho...

If you are interested in the struggle to come to understand climate change which includes the stuggle to isolate human causes from natural causes, The American Institute of Physics has a lengthy history of beliefs and the scientists who challenged those believes. You will find that your ignorant "someone" is not interested enough in self-education to read from credible scientific sources.

http://www.aip.org/history/climate/summa...

You will find many people who claim that because they know nothing nobody knows anything.

There is debate within the scientific community, it's not all looking in one direction.

I was told from someone that climate scientists have been looking down one specific route of climate change for the past 30 years, so in other words they are biased and are not looking at any different possibilities.

Is this true or false, I doubt from what I know about science that scientists would hold a bias and look for one piece of evidence and reject anything else?

Whats going on?

It is so biased, that any study/paper that rejects or slights AGW is rejected and will not be published

http://joannenova.com.au/2014/01/science...

Edit

Just found this http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/02/0...