I don't find seasonal hurricane predictions very useful...perhaps it's because their all based on the work of global warming denier William Gray, and his method is not all that accurate.
But, going back to your question, seasonal hurricane forecasting has almost nothing to do with forecasting climate change over a multi-decadal period.
Jerry, not only did NOAA miss its 2013 Atlantic Basin Hurricane forecast, so did ALL of the forecasters. This would include Joe Bastardi. Even after the first half of the 2013 Atlantic Basin Hurricane season had proved to be unremarkable, Joe Bastardi was still saying that the remainder of the season would be active. So how did all of these people miss their forecasts by so much? They all looked at the then present climate conditions and looked at past seasons with the closest conditions to make their forecasts on. When all of the conditions pointed to an active to a hyper-active hurricane season and it did not appear, then something must be different in the climate now than it was during similar past climate conditions that did lead to active to hyper-active hurricane seasons. I am pretty sure that even Bastardi is scratching his head over this one. He uses past climate conditions to make his long term weather forecasts. While he has had some limited success with this in the past, he is becoming less accurate in his long term weather forecasts now. What has happened in the past does seem to be less of a determining factor as to what is happening now. ... Did something change?
No because NOAA failed to predict this year's hurricanes.
NOAA's predictions/hunches have little credibility in the legitimate scientific community, as their maintaining the 'Alarm' message greatly influences the funding they receive from taxpayers to grow their Empire.
Absolutely not. They should not be rewarded for incompetence. That would be just as bad as giving Al Gore a Nobel Prize.
I do not trust NOAA or NASA their funding is tied into a pro-climate change government,
Why did you provide a link to a story that has nothing to do with the question? In fact, even by itself it is a non-story.
It does provide intellectual slop for the weak-minded, the poorly educated, and those who have dedicated their lives to willfully stupidity.
"Well, that's the news from Lake Denierdom, where all the women are strongly stupid, all the men are goodly stupid, and all the children are above average stupid."
http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/german-scientists-noaa-2013-hurricane-prediction-completely-missed-the-barn-not-a-single-major-hurricane.html
when they can't get 6 months right.
