This would make 2013 the 7th warmest year in the record (after 2010, 2005, 2007, 1998, 2012 and 2009). Using the 5 year RA it would rank 6th, using the 10 year RA it would be 7th.
If this prediction is correct then it means that 2013 will be first year since 1966 when the global temperature trend falls. The climatological 30 year mean will be 0.59630°C putting it in second place behind 2012 at 0.60074°C.
Currently there is nothing to suggest that this will be an exceptional year. The Asian Brown Cloud continues to reflect and absorb incoming solar radiation at about the same rate as global warming is enhanced by heightened greenhouse gas levels. The Oceanic Nino Index has been in a neutral phase in recent months which means that until July there will be little impact on global temperatures. ONI will remain neutral for the foreseeable future meaning that the impact of ENSO on the 2013 AGT will be minimal (neither warming nor cooling).
Weather patterns globally will continue to be disrupted as a consequence of the Arctic Dipolar Anomaly and erratic jetstreams, most notably the PJS. It’s quite probable that we’ll see similar events to 2012 in that there will be intense heatwaves in some places whilst others are far cooler than normal.
I would estimate that about 200 all time high records will be broken and 25 all time low records. By contrast, in 2012 there were 240 all time highs and 10 all time lows. These events are more weather related than climate so it’s very difficult to predict in advance.
Flooding will again be a major problem but 2013 looks like seeing less floods generally than in recent years. Globally it’s likely that there will only be four times the 1950 baseline number of floods.
- - - - - - - - - - -
EDIT: TO OTTAWA MIKE
On a year to year basis the effects of solar activity is very small, we’re talking in the order of a few thousandths of a degree C. If you look back to the time of the Little Ice Age, the effects of the prolonged reduction in solar activity amounted to a cooling trend of 0.0009°C per year. This compares to the normalised variation from one year to the next of 0.091238°C; solar variation therefore accounts for about 1% of the normal year to year change. Over prolonged periods it becomes significant but over just a year or two it’s lost amongst the other variables.
The combined effect of the low sunspot numbers during solar cycle 24 has a cumulative effect in that the 5.5 year warming phase has been less than average, so throughout the duration of this cycle the warming/cooling has been less than usual.
TO CHEM FUNKY
It’s possible to apply an algorithm to the global temperature data that attempts to normalises the effects of ENSO, when this is done 2012 comes out as the warmest year followed by 2011, 2010, 2005, 2009; the infamous 1998 drops to 9th place.
ENSO is notoriously unpredictable. We’ve had a moderate 2010/11 La Nina then a short neutral phase followed by a second moderate La Nina. This is unusual and is only the second time such a sequence has happened (1983 to 85 being the other occasion). Where things are going to go now is hard to predict, the most likely scenario based on historical trends, is that there will be a slow change to El Nino conditions over the next year. Even though this is the likeliest outcome I’d still only give at a 1 in 3 probability.
The comparable events of 83 to 85 were followed by ten neutral months then a switch to a strong El Nino that registered above 1.0 (moderately high) on the ONI for the next 14 months – the longest such run in the record. By comparison the 1997/8 event, the strongest on record, remained above 1.0 for eleven months of which six consecutive months registered above 2.0 (exceptionally high).
It will be interesting to see how the ENSO pans out over the coming months.
My WAG is that 2013 will be somewhat warmer than 2012, because 2012 was a La Nina year, so presumably cooler than the baseline. But probably only by a fraction of a degree, as I don't *think* you typically get a strong El Nino directly after a La Nina, and there is still the masking effect of things like Chinese sulfate pollution. '13 will probably bump '12 off the 10-warmest list, but I'd be a touch surprised if it takes higher than 8th place. Our next hottest year ever will probably be another El Nino year, possibly our next one.
@Trevor:
I notice you didn't mention solar activity. Currently, solar cycle 24 is predicted to peak around mid 2013 but the current data shows that in may have already peaked last fall. Would any of this change your analysis?
Edit@Trevor: Have you seen this page? http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/sci...
There's nothing conclusive but it does highlight a variety of different opinions regarding solar influences some of which don't quite line up with your last edit.
I think it will be slightly cooler than 2012. I think Climatologists are running out of excuses to adjust present temperatures upwards so temps now will only fluctuate slightly from natural variations.
It will be 2.85 degrees above average.
It will be within a degree of being the same.
Oh come on, I can't even get a meteorologist to tell me how much snow I'm getting today anymore....
Im always interested in hearing predictions from people, even hobbyist climate scientists, myself included, about global temperature predictions, and the reasons behind their prediction. The Met office never gets it right, why not take the summation of this knowledge base instead.
So, will 2013 be warmer, cooler the same, and any other climate variable you think, such as wetter, dryer, etc... than 2012 and what is your reason for your prediction?
.
.This prediction could be the prmary driver:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif
