Every plot on Spencer's graph is a reflection of Global average temperature at that specific time. The average temperature in May is 0.07 C higher than the running mean temperature, but the running trend is a little higher than 0.07 C and looks like the trend is 0.22 C.
If we plotted the El Nino year of 1998 against today's temperature (May '13) and compared it to the '81 - '10 mean temperature , then we could say that the temperature has dropped 0.6 C since 1998 and we can call it "Global Cooling" since 1998.
In direct contrast to that analogy we can take the low point on that graph ('84 - '85) and compare it to today's average temperature (May '13), we can say that the temperature has gone up 0.69 C since '84 - 85' and we can call it "Global Warming".
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Trevor - Global warming is based on the premise "global average temperatures are rising and humans are causing it". Global average temperatures have gone up 0.2 degrees since 1978. I will concur that it still means that Global average temperatures have risen that much in 35 years, but anomalies of 35 years are inconclusive and I know that you know better.
Part of your answer about the many things that affect the climate :
"BIOGEOCHEMICAL FEEDBACKS
Effect = Cooling or warming
Scale = Global
Cause = N and A, N influenced by A
Status = Strong warming
Time = Years to centuries
Your ignorance of what is "natural" and what is "anthropogenic" is totally biased against Aliens. Humans are not "natural" to you for sure.
If we take all the global temperature records then the average global temperature for the period 1981 to 2010 was 14.46147°C.
So far this year the AGT has been 14.69525°C, it’s likely to drop a bit by the end of the year. The 5 year running mean is 14.70036°C (very similar to the 10, 20 and 30 year values). We’re currently about 0.23°C above the 1981-2010 baseline.
The figure that Dr Spencer has on his site of +0.07°C is for May 2013 only. If you look at his running average it’s about 0.22°C, almost exactly the same as my figure.
It may well be that a monthly figure does drop below the baseline but it will be fairly meaningless. As you can see from Dr Spencer’s graph, the monthly figure jumps up and down all over the place.
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RE: YOUR ADDED DETAILS
I think you may be misinterpreting the graphs.
The +0.07°C figure that Dr Spencer quoted relates to the average global temperature for the month of May 2013. Monthly figures are highly variable, you can see from Dr Spencer’s graph that they go up and down significantly from one month to the next, it is therefore unreliable to try to infer anything from a single month.
Staying with Dr Spencer’s graph, the red line represents the 13 month running average, the value of which is currently +0.22°C. This is almost exactly the same figure that I have, if you’re implying that I’ve manipulated the data then you have to imply that Dr Spencer has as well.
Because Dr Spencer maintains the UAH-RSS satellite temperature record which dates from 1979, he has to use a more recent baseline than other temperature records, and because the values are expressed as anomalies against the baseline then by default that value will always be zero. In terms of real world temperatures – what you would see on a thermometer – the baseline Dr Spencer uses will be just over 14.4°C, an anomalous value of say +0.2°C means that the average global temperature would have been 14.6°C.
Our temperature record incorporates all the records into one massive dataset, it includes all the data that Dr Spencer uses and a lot more besides. For all intents and purposes the figures are that same as the UAH-RSS record, which is why Dr Spencer’s figures and mine are so close.
Regarding your comment that “There has been no statistical warming since 1980 is the point.” I don’t think you’re grasping the concept of how temperatures are calculated. We don’t look solely at 1980 as any year in isolation is subject to many short-term influences, that’s why running averages are used.
In 1980 the AGT was 14.11870°C, it is now 14.69506°C (note that this figure is 0.00019°C lower than the one I stated previously, this is because the earlier figure was yesterday’s value, this lower figure is today’s value). The amount of warming since 1980 is 0.57636°C.
I know what point you’re trying to make but it’s invalid because you’re using a method that does not reflect average global temperatures. What you could say that is valid, is that 2013 is, to date, the first year since 1966 when the long-term average global temperature has dropped (which is something I previously predicted). This is of far more significance then what the temperature was last month.
If you still maintain that the figures are manipulated in any way then please say which figures and why you think they’ve been manipulated.
No ... look at the graph. A pattern of temperatures dropping then rising is apparent throughout a year. At the start of the year the T departure was 0.5C, and has since dropped to 0.07C. This suggests that the red line (the 13 month average) is a far more valuable trend to observe than a single point. For that to fall to the 1981-2010 average (0) we would require at least two years of negative departures. (So the drop would have to be more than 0.07C and for more than one recording).
A 0.07 C drop in lower tropospheric temperatures would return them to the '81-'10 average. Lower tropospheric temperatures also wiggle about naturally a lot, especially related to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. This is quite normal: before ~1997, most of the temperature recordings were below the '81-'10 average, and after most of them were above. This is because the satellite temperature records have seen global warming.
The lower troposphere is thousands of metres up in the sky. Most of us live on the ground, so 'we' need temperatures to fall a bit further. The May 2013 update from NASA puts us at 0.65 C above the 1951-1980 average.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabled...
I don't know but it does seem that with all the years of industrial smog it has or will affect global warming at some point
http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
