AS you seem to imply, that is incorrect. It is the heat differential that is important. If the deeper waters are heating up, then this would explain the "missing heat". BUT, if this is the location of the "missing heat" then it point to a severe flaw in the models. The deeper ocean will continue to draw this heat.
In fact, the warmer the surface temperature gets, the more heat will be drawn into the deeper oceans. Given the sheer volume of the oceans, this is a huge negative feedback.
So not only does this mean that the models were overestimating, but that they will continue to overestimate, AND that overestimation will become larger.
Edit:
For our purposes, it is rather unimportan which is hotter or cooler.
IF the ocean deep were warmer than the surface then it would be giving heat to the surface. If the surface became warmer, then the deeper oceans would be giving less heat to the surface for an overall change of less heat from the ocean deep or a negative change.
If the ocean deep were colder, then the ocean depp would be drawing heat from the surface. Increase the temp of the surface and the ocean depp would draw heat faster for once again an overall negative change.
The greater change to the surface temperature, the greater the negative change.
Note that in some locations the surface is colder than the ocean deep and in some locations it is warmer. Regardless, if you increase the surface temperature, the there is a negative change to the heat exchange between the surface and the ocean deep.
Okay Chem, It is against the laws of the thermodynamics for heat to travel from cold to hot, ie warm the deep ocean without warming the surface, however it can be done by mechanical means (like in a refrigerator) do we have mechanical means that could warm down into the oceans, yes winds, currents and ocean cycles like the PDO could do it and have probably been doing it for thousands of years, it is quite possible that the present pause is caused by a negative PDO, but then again it is equally likely that the 80's 90's and 2000's warming was caused by a positive PDO.
Is it possible that heat could be going into the oceans that could come out again, well yes except it is not going to erupt out the depths like Godzilla and destroy us all, it will just be part of a natural cycle and have nothing to do with CO2,
Are you aware that downwelling long wave radiation cannot penetrate into water more than a few mm, whereas short wave and UV can penetrate hundreds of meters down.
Edit
Hmm been thinking about this a bit more, the laws of thermodynamics say you cannot heat a warm body with a cold body, yes the interaction will eventually cause equillibrium, but does that mean energy from a cold body does not affect a warmer body (I don't think so) photons of energy coming off a cold body and striking a warmer body don't just disappear or reflect or whatever, they must have an effect, which is slow the rate of cooling of the warmer body, is that right?
The answer I intuit, but am having trouble articulating clearly and completely:
The "missing heat" is all about there being heat that wasn't there before where we can't readily measure it. If the deep oceans are warmer *than they were before*, then they could have the "missing" heat, while still being cooler than the surface. And this will affect and be affected by things like the PDO and ENSO, so if the "missing" heat is there, it may come back the next time the PDO oscillates in the other direction.
Right?
No...the deep oceans are colder than the surface. I'm not sure what you mean by missing heat, but I'm guessing it is one of those global warming quandaries?
Deep water is formed at high latitudes. It sinks because the density of the water increases when it cools. It may be that some of the sinking water is less cool and carrying down more heat, but it is still cold and dense.
Energy can be stored in many forms. Heat is actually a thermodynamic term which describes randomly directed kinetic energy of a large number of molecules. If the molecules are moving on average in the same direction, there is a current and energy can be represented as a sum of collective motion and random motion (heat). It is possible for the ocean to store more energy by increasing the mass of water in a current (or velocity) with no change in temperature. Any increase in temperature represents an increase in stored energy.
The best way to explain "missing heat" is that the planet didn't warm like global warming "scientists" predicted. Because it wasn't warming, they had to find a fictional narrative to explain where this heat went. Since no one could actually measure the entire ocean, they decided to say that the heat went into the ocean instead of the climate. It gives these "scientists" the ability to claim the planet is still warming even when it not warming.
For this exercise, there are two concepts that are elusive to us collectively. The first is thinking non-linearly, especially as issues become more complex. We want a simple cause and effect; logical enough, but as variables begin to intercede on that simple premise, it becomes more difficult to sort them out. For example, politics; some people want to blame George Bush Jr. or Barack Obama for economic problems and point at single events during their administrations when those events did not occur in a vacuum; the economic problems we are trying to cope with are cumulative, going back decades and even centuries as a result of many decisions made by many people, influenced by a myriad of ways of thinking and financial management down to the individual level.
The second elusive concept is time; things do not happen instantaneously. A buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere is not immediately going to increase the average global temperature. Nor are the laws of thermodynamics going to dictate that warmer water must always be at the surface and colder water below; if you put a container in the kitchen sink and fill it three quarters of the way up with cold water, then pour hot water in on top, the force of the water coming out of the spigot will result in some warm water being below the colder water as it circulates in the container. This is not a violation of the laws of thermodynamics-it will take some time for the water to reach that point of thermodynamic equilibrium.
Put more simply, I have to get up every morning to relieve myself. I have to wake up, get out of bed, walk to the bathroom, do my business, and then deliver the results to the septic system. This takes a few minutes often accompanied by some sense of urgency, and one might suggest that because of age my prostate is to blame. That's a reasonable enough assumption, thinking linearly. But my last physical examination revealed not only that my prostate is normal, but where my missing set of car keys was. The variable that I introduce is I drink too much coffee. Which also influences my grasp of the concept of time, introducing the variable that I have to get up in the middle of the night to pee, which results in the positive feedback of making more coffee and going to work very early, which in turn generates more need to sleep at various times without taking care of necessary bodily functions before drifting off into a sound sleep on the couch which my wife sometimes mistakes for my early departure from this earthly veil. This contributes to the cycle and gives me lingering fears that there is something going on that is unrelated to coffee, which I have habitually increased consumption of up to the point of diminishing returns. Coffee is the catalyst and the positive feedback, and I will be damned if any politician is going to tell me I can't drink as much coffee as I want even if it means I have to start wearing Depends because my trips to the bathroom do not solve my problem instantaneously.
Coffee is much easier to understand than CO2.
So as you admit, even the 'missing heat' is missing.
Certain parties here seem to think that, because the deep oceans are cooler than the surface (at least, on average), it's impossible for the "missing heat" to be in the deep oceans. I can... intuit why this idea is wrong, but I'm having trouble articulating it clearly. Can someone help me explain it to them?
