Who was predicting a record melt?
Arctic weather conditions for the last 13 days have slowed down the rate of melting and unless there’s a reversal in weather patterns over the course of the next six weeks then it’s likely that the melt will be less than many people predicted.
It now looks like it could end the season at around 5 million km2, slightly more than the 4.5 to 5.0 million km2 that we the general prediction. But who knows, Arctic weather is becoming increasingly erratic making it harder to predict what will happen.
In any event, even at the level we’re at today (6.6 million km2) we’re already well below the long term average even if no more ice melts at all this season.
I think perhaps the skeptics are disappointed. Despite the fact that some of them have been saying for several years that the Arctic isn’t melting, that the planet is cooling, that global warming doesn’t exist, the Arctic ice is already below the summer average and there’s still six weeks of melting to go. How does that happen if global warming doesn’t exist?
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RE: YOUR ADDED DETAILS
You seem to be making the mistake of linking the AMO with Arctic sea-ice extent, and I’m guessing this is because the AMO has been in a positive phase at the same time as the ice has been retreating. You need to look at all factors before drawing any conclusions.
Historically the annual extent of the Arctic sea-ice changed very little. Records start in 1870, from then up until the 1970’s the annual average was always 13 million and something km2, the only exceptions being 1940 and 1960 when it just dipped below the 13 million mark. Since the late 70’s it has been below 13 million every year and is now closer to 10 million.
If there was a strong link between AMO and Arctic sea-ice we should expect the AMO Index to be more or less steady until the late 70’s then a sharp rise after that. This isn’t the case. AMO records go back to 1856 during which time there have been three positive phases and two negative ones.
AMO records go back to 1856. There is some correlation between the AMO Index and Arctic sea-ice extent but it’s not a good one; the correlation between AMOI and AGT is a better one, but still not all that good. It’s easier to see on a graph, if I have 5 mins later on I’ll create one.
EDIT: Have now created the graph showing temps, ice extent and AMOI. You can see a sort of correlation between AMOI and ice extent up to about 1980 then it goes horribly wrong. You can also see that the correlation between temp and extent is a good one. The evidence would certainly seem to suggest that temp is far more influential on ice extent than AMOI is.
At the risk of repeating what Trevor said, who is predicting a record melt this year.
2007 was the previous record that was not broken till 2012, that's 5 years, this of course happen through a period deniers claimed we were cooling yet ice continued to decline, just as sea level continued to rise.
A storm here or wind patterns there can have a marked effect on short term ice levels but the long term is pretty clear.
About a week ago one of the denier pack stated ice was recovering, because of a very small slowing in the blue line data, at no point did go horizontal or actually rise it simple slowed it's decline a little, of course if you look at the data now there is an equally small increase in the rate of decline, but I guarantee our denier friend won't make anything of that.
This seems to be a rather childish game deniers play they spend most of their time telling us these graphs are wrong or inaccurate or even faked, but the second these graphs show any sort of drop suddenly we get questions like this, of course when the graphs go back to the longer term trend again deniers don't want to talk about it again.
Now we have a reference to the AMO, o.k. whats the data show on that, Arctic sea ice has declined steadily since the start of the record in the late 1970's, it shrank noticeably from 1979 to 1995 a period when the AMO was in a descending negative phase, so much for your theory.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Atlant...
The end of that AMO cooling cycle (and it coolest period, since the early 70's) was ~1994/5 a year that was globally, at the time, the warmest year on record.
So if you think a return to a negative phase of the AMO will restore the Arctic ice, I would not hold my breath if I where you.
Not really. Even if they don't get the record melt they long for, they'll find some way to put a catastrophic spin on it. Hell, if the Arctic Circle had a record freeze they'd just say that we're going into another ice age and still blame it on global warming!
it's an accumulation over time, so even if it does not melt as fast in 2013, taken over the last 20 years, it's still melting.
will you be happy when there is no more arctic ice or claim it's the urban heat island?
If the AO keeps slowly trending down, I think there will be a lot of head scratching going on. The only thing left to do will be to create a crustal heat index index to explain how the heat is actually being stored in Earths upper crust and it will be back to haunt us later.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pr...
Who was predicting a record melt?
This chap and other assorted nutters. Why do warmies deny these things were said???
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm
http://www.treehugger.com/clean-technolo...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/20...
It will be like all the other years with normal temperature fluctuations.
Do you think 2013 will big a big disappointment for those predicting a record melt.
