Is it even possible? yes
What would happen to the Arctic ocean heat balance, with ice the surface temperatures are colder
than deeper temperatures (opposite to normal) -
>>>heat would be more readily exchanged between water and air.
What would to the weather of adjoining countries (more or less precipitation)- more in some areas, >>less in some others- it will be changed from "normal"
What would happen to northern hemisphere glaciers would they grow or decline?
>>mostly decline
Arctic could be ice-free by 2058
US scientists predict that ice floes could vanish from Arctic between 2054 and 2058 if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.
People have been warning about an ice-free Arctic ocean for years. But Jiping Liu, an atmospheric scientist at the State University of New York in Albany in the US and colleagues have gone one better.
They predict that the Arctic Ocean will be effectively free of ice for the first time in the month of September between 2054 and 2058.
Once again, the prediction depends on climate models, and inevitably on the decisions governments take to control greenhouse gas emissions in the next decade.
But the fact that a team of scientists can spread their bets over a span of four specific years is an indicator of how fast and how inexorable the Arctic melting has become.
The polar icecap has been dwindling in area and losing its thickness for decades: the observations by satellite have been confirmed by submarine measurements and icebreaker journeys. An icecap that was, historically, impassable even in summer has for years given way each autumn to ever greater stretches of open water.
From 1979 to 2001, the ice cap dwindled by more than 6% per decade, and in 2001 began melting twice as fast, The ice melt broke all previous records in 2007, and in 2012 did it again, reaching an all-time low.
Significant impacts
On September 16 last year it stood at almost 49% below the long term average and the ice left floating on the sea had dwindled to an area of 3.4 million square kilometres.
In the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Dr Liu and colleagues define “ice-free” as a mere million square kilometres, and propose that if greenhouse gas emissions stay at a high level, then in some September between 2054 and 2058, that’s all that will be left in the Arctic Ocean: a million square kilometres of floe and slush.
This would, say the researchers, have “significant impacts” on Arctic ecosystems and maritime activities, biogeochemical feedbacks and extreme weather and climate in the high and mid-latitudes.
In 2012, the extent of ice in September had almost halved: what interested the researchers was when it would halve again, falling to 1.7 million square kms. Precisely when this happened depended on which climate model they used, but it always happened at some point: in the 2060s, under one set of conjectured circumstances, and in the 2040s under others.
And, they point out, with only 1.7million sq kms in their models the Arctic Ocean becomes a viable “open ocean” shipping route, with thick and multi-year ice found only in a tiny portion of the northern Canadian archipelago.
Well it would warm the ocean water to the point it may interfere with the thermohaline circulation, which in turn could effect the gulf stream to the point it could move away from England causing much of Europe to have the climate of Norway. This is if the total north pole melted. If you mean just the Arctic sea, then not much except shipping would love it
'with ice the surface temperatures are colder than deeper temperatures (opposite to normal) "
Support that statement.
Not only is it possible, it WILL happen in your lifetime. I am talking about all ice being gone every summer, but some ice forming every winter, then melting again next summer.
And oil exploration has already started so when the ice is gone they can put up drilling rigs.
And sea level will NOT RISE, because it is all sea ice already floating on the water, unlike the ANTarctic and Greenland ice caps.
Hi Kano, I think it has already happened in the early 1900's. I think it was Franklin or one of those early hero's that sailed the northwest passage. No big deal, things warm then cool.
Global Warming ended in 2012 and all iced areas on earth are rebuilding up there Iced areas according to our Satelite reports 11/28/2012. Mike
Sea level rises, erasing large parts of the Philippines and most Pacific islands from the map.
Mass desertification and extreme weather around the equator.
Large areas in Canada and Siberia become suitable for agriculture.
Nothing it was almost ice free in the 1950s Many submarines went there and there was no panic attacks .
If it became ice free in the summer, I doubt it would be a significant problem. If it became ice free in the winter, I think we better think about moving.
Is it even possible?
What would happen to the Arctic ocean heat balance, with ice the surface temperatures are colder than deeper temperatures (opposite to normal)
What would to the weather of adjoining countries (more or less precipitation)
What would happen to northern hemisphere glaciers would they grow or decline?
It will refreeze in a few months, and have very little effect on the global climate.
