I don't like when people put value judgments on weather. What's bad for some people is often good for others.
I believe that we tend to get more rain in El Nino year but it isn't necessarily so. It does make offshore fishing better with Tuna and maybe even Dorado migrating north with the warmer waters. I wouldn't expect any rain until October even with an El Nino.
Did you read John McPhee's book "Control of Nature?" Heavy rains after a drought, combined with wildfires, leads to killer mudslides. It has to do with the heat of the fire sealing the soil so it can't absorb water. This leads to mudslides and flooding in heavy rains. Most of the hills around the LA basin are beyond the angle of repose, so that makes them particularly prone to this.
It's a good book. The section on the Atchafalaya is better though.
The bright spot is that there's no el nino this year in california.
It could bring some relief, but I would not bet on it saving the day. It could also make things worse. A strong event like 1997/98 could turn the PDO phase positive, suck out a bunch of ocean heat and spike global temperature up another notch.
Some places gain some places lose, here in Philippines it is a pain, hotter and dryer
I think Gary F. nailed it.
Calif gets more rain in el nino years.
If you live here, that would be a very good thing.
If you live in any of the rest of the world, maybe not so good.
You may not get any corn or wheat, but you'll get vegetables.
Have a good day all.
