> Is forgetting the past part of the problem with alarmists?

Is forgetting the past part of the problem with alarmists?

Posted at: 2015-03-12 
Yes

Y2k, killer bees, acid rain, smog, hole in the ozone, swine flu, bird flu, anthrax, small pox, mad cow, the coming ice age, peak oil 70's 80's 90's are we out of oil yet? 2012, cold war, fire ants make south western united states unlivable for all large mammals by the 1990's. And the last rainforest will be gone by 1985. The population bomb, immigration bomb, fallout from Chernoble, fallout from three mike island, hale not commet, El nino/el Nina, planet X niburu, hide the decline. Global cooling, global warming, climate-cool-warm-change-stasis.

Rising sea levels will drop California into the ocean by the year 2000. And my personal favorite AIDS (GRIDS) will infect and kill 75% of the human race by the year 2000.

Watch al gores movie again on did or vhs unedited and "updated"as it was and just listen to the dates.

Hurricanes: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/gw_...

Tornadoes: http://www.ustornadoes.com/wp-content/up...

Heat waves: http://sarcozona.org/wp-content/uploads/...

Corn and wheat yields: http://sustainablog.org/files/2009/08/co...

Floods/drought: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/s...

To combat what Trevor is saying. BTW, Trevor, since you are bringing up the number of tornadoes in New York, I guess the last cold winter in the US proves no global warming at all??? You might also want to mention that our ability to track EF1 tornadoes and all tornadoes has increased significantly during the same timeperiod that you note an increase in occurence. The same can also be said with flooding across the world. I use flood and drought data in the US as oppsed to the world because of the porr tracking of these thing in the rest of the world. But looking at droughts across the globe:

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v49...

It is not that alarmists have a short memory, it is that they need everyone scared out of their mind. Why else would anyone accept the non-solution of ethanol and carbon taxes? The truth is just not good enough. There is no way that we are going to agree to tax ourselves simply because the temps increased by 0.8 degrees over the past 100 years.

Of course they have also gotten a nice boost from the media. We have not always been able to report on every flood or every weather event throughout the world.

Fact of the matter is that all of this is conjecture. To determine if these extreme weatehr events are realyl increasing in frequency, we would need a statistical analysis accounting for multiplicity. An analysis that the warmers are OBLIGATED to provide if they want to make their claim.

Their handwaving at consensus and the opinions of "scientists" makes absolutely no nevermind to me. I have yet to meet a scientists in the pharma industry that did not believe their drug worked and would pass through the FDA. Given the failure rate of drugs to pass through the FDA is 94%, this means that most of the pharma scientists are wrong. To me, I find it entertaining knowing that the pharma scientists are wrong 94% of the time, yet people argue with a "consensus".

It's part of the problem for anyone who makes failed predictions.

Absolutely! Alarmists have short memories. They need to forget what their heroes said because so many of their predictions were dead wrong. In 1988 James Hansen made a famous prediction about how global temperature would increase in response to additional CO2. As it turns out, actual temperatures are below where he predicted they would be if we stopped emitting CO2 in 2000. His hypothesis is invalid, yet he continues to crow about the dangers of CO2.

In addition to failed predictions, the alarmists have been tampering with historical temperature data. Up until 2000, the U.S. temperature record showed temperatures peaked in the 1930's and declined for the rest of the century. In 2000, NASA made some "adjustments" to the record which made it look like there was about 1 C of warming. The changes have been documented in many places.

Perhpas worse yet, they made the Mideveal Warm Period disappear. It was there in the IPCC TAR 1, but gone in TAR 3, replaced by the hockey stick.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/10/u...

No.

For alarmists the past is malleable , fungible & subject to immediate change at any random future date so how could forgetting it be a problem.

When I was a kid my father told me that theres no such thing as "normal" weather. We might occasionally have "average" weather but normally we don't.

Took me quite a few years to appreciate that profound statement

I'm sorry but the prime example I can think of is deniers playing the "there was scientific consensus on cooling in the 70's" of course ask a denier to post the evidence of this claimed scientific consensus" and all you get is a few media stories.

Look at the real scientific journals of the time and you see no such consensus, it's a theory deniers have invented and repeated so often I think some of you actually think it true, it isn't.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11...

Forgetting the past is a denier specialty, or have you forgotten.

Yes weather has always had floods and snowstorms and heat waves and cold spells.

But here the problem, you say you remember from when you where a kid, but the long term data does not show a steady state, it shows a rise in temperature, other denier try to explain this away by trying to claim it is just the recovery from the LIA (so they admit it is getting warmer) the temperature record certainly shows it warming and sea level rise confirms that as it is a proxy for temperature rise.

http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/index....

To try and explain this denier throw up yet another theory "sea level is still rising due to the end of the last ice age"

again that is not what the evidence shows.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_r...

Sea level certainly did rise at the end of the last ice age, but it slowed markedly ~7000 years ago and all but stopped ~2000 years ago. The current rate of rise is one not seen in over 7000 years.

Science is a very large field and many groups are looking at the implications of AGW on what they study as it is a global problem, that denier hunt out research on crime stats or medical issues and try to make them funny (like yesterdays childish story from the Washington Examiner) only shows the childish nature of denial. Which is why deniers also always try to use the world alarmist rather than scientist, because at the end of the day this is a scientific theory that in all honesty deniers have not made the slightest dent in, they know it and the scientists certainly know it.

On this very site, if you want to talk about "remembering the past" a few years ago deniers claimed we where headed for cooler times and they quoted some obscure Russian expert who retired 30 years ago.

Yet here we are 2-3 years later and where is that cold, last year was the 4th warmest year on record and this year looks set to be warmer.

Even a denier of limited scientific understanding should be able to figure out that if the entire atmosphere warms that will have an effect on every thing within that atmosphere.

So far the evidence support that is indeed the case, with temperature rise observed, sea level rise also observed, loss of glacial ice in the Antarctic and Greenland as well as mountain glaciers, Arctic permafrost is decline. Deniers ran out of even partly true excuses years ago, and from the pap I see here of late they are no longer even really trying to hide that fact.

http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators/

No but relying only on memory and anecdote is a problem with anti-science denialists

A perfect demonstration of why you shouldn’t rely on politicians, journalists, bloggers etc for science info. Oh hang on, that’s exactly what most skeptics do.

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<< anything out of the ordinary is immediately put down to "climate change">>

Just remind me, which side of the debate was it that flooded this forum with claims that last winters cold weather proved there was no climate change? Many hundreds of Q’s and A’s in total.

Which side was it that barely caused a ripple when claiming last summers heatwave was caused by climate change?

Seems it’s the skeptics that are the ones who relate individual weather events to the climates.

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<< There is always weird weather happening somewhere on the planet>>

Yes there is, the difference now is that there’s a lot more of it. All the deadliest heatwaves on record have occurred recently, all the hottest years on record are recent ones, the number of floods around the world has shot up (1950’s in the US approx 20, 2000’s in the US approx 200 – a ten fold increase)



Exactly right! Degrees of severity are in the minds of extremists. Temperatures still change and they change fast and frequent. Some places have been hot and dry for eons such as the southwest, but they act as if the current drought in California is something new. Having troubles with water? Really? Must be the first time this has ever happened with this much severity (or is it that too many people live in the hottest climate in the U.S.?). Hmmmm?

anything out of the ordinary is immediately put down to "climate change" is something only alarmists, politicians and media says (all the time)

http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2014/07/cuomo_says_we_dont_get_tornadoes_in_ny_but_weve_had_at_least_417.html

I remember being a kid and we put heat waves down to weather. Freak snowstorms were "freak snowstorms". Floods happened. Tornadoes happened. Forest fires happened.

Now, anything out of the ordinary is immediately put down to "climate change".

There is always weird weather happening somewhere on the planet. There has always been weird weather happening somewhere on the planet. There will always be weird weather happening somewhere on the planet.

yes

Well, it's a problem with Cuomo.

It's also a problem with most people that base their conclusions about global warming on short-term observations of their own local environment or their own personal memories.

My childhood memories are different than Ian's. I remember lots of people claiming that the climate had changed based on what they remembered. People were always saying that it was hotter, colder, wetter, drier, etc. when they were kids.



Something only a denialist would say.