From 26 June to 23 July 2013 the seven day average retreat of the ice had exceeded the mean value for recent years, in early July it retreated at the second fastest week on week rate ever recorded. From the 24 July up to and including today (02 August) the rate of retreat has slowed and is currently less than the long term average.
The most recent date on which the ice extent increased was 28 May, this was one of two consecutive days when ice-extent grew, primarily down to strong winds dispersing the ice and spreading it further afield. We have to go back to early March to find the last time when the ice extent was in a growing phase, after reaching maximum extent on 15 March the trend has been a continuous downward one with just the odd day here and there when the ice extent has increased.
So no, your eyes are quite okay and your mathematical interpretation is fine – it really is a downward slope.
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EDIT: RE THE ADDED DETAILS, AND TO OM
Mike’s graph is of ice AREA, this is different to the more conventional measurement of EXTENT. Both the area and extent measurements divide the Arctic into 25km x 25km gridded cells (pixels), if the cell contains more than 15% ice concentration then the extent measurement deems it to be a full pixel whereas the area measurement looks at the ice concentration within each pixel.
Theoretically then, you could take a section of the Arctic that extends to say 10 cells or 12,500km2, each of them could contain one quarter ice and three quarters open sea, the area measurement would be 3,125km2 but the extent measurement would deem all cells to be containing ice and provide a value of 12,500km2.
The value for extent will always be more than area, today the extent measurement is 6.9 million km2 but the area measurement is 5.7 million km2.
Perhaps this is the data set you are looking for: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/sate...
I've read a theory that the current Arctic cyclone is fragmenting and spreading out the ice thus increasing extent coverage. This makes more sense then some sort of freezing event. Perhaps the NSIDC data does not reflect this because they use a different method for determining sea ice extent.
I am surprised Trevor got at least one fact right concerning the difference between ice area and extent. This explains it somewhat.
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/sate...
It is predicted this valley in decline will soon start an upward swing for both extent and area as it has in the past. The problem is the globe is not warming and the ice lost are mostly at the eastern edge of the northern isles indicating other causes of the Arctic volume of ice content. To answer your question, and I am sure you know this, is that sea ice area and subsequently extent is above last years data which I guess it means its up. The trend upward over a long period of time has not yet arrived.
The GCM's haven't done so well and show little skill in producing accurate temp. anomalies and all 73 are way off, along with the lack of the equatorial hotspot and positive feedback systems all required premises to show your theory correct. You can debate this all you want but in the end it is not working out very well for your side. The fact that the earth has not warmed in the last, what 15 or 17 years with actual data showing a virtual flat line as compared to the unskilled IPCC models should give a clue as to the nature of this beast.
I for one would rather see a cyclical warm spell than the worse and the alternative would be devastating for the earth and its people in terms of mass starvation, disease and pestilence.
Yes arctic ice is going down and has been for several decades, 2012 was a record melt helped by an intense cyclone that lasted weeks, this year is still below average but it is doubtful that it will reach the record levels of 2007 or 2012,
What interests me is, that all the climate experts give estimates for when the arctic will be summer ice free, dates like 2015, 2030, 2050, abound, but nobody is considering that it might be a natural cycle and that in a few years (probably when the AMO goes negative) that it might reverse and return to normal.
Ah you mean right now, yes of course it is reducing, it does every year until late september or october and then it increases
Down. The web cam near the North Pole is showing a fresh water lake on top of the ice.
The question to which you are referring was I think mine.
What I meant was the line had ceased its downward track and had commenced to move towards the thicker grey line, which you will notice it still is.
I didn't claim it showed the end of global warming or that we were all going to freeze to death next week but brought the subject up as an interesting curiosity.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/image...
Not much change over the past very few years, although the values are way below earlier decades. Nothing new there; for the past few years, overall global temperatures have been on a temporary plateau, albeit one higher than any in history.
I don't think that Arctic sea ice will go up now nor in upcoming future. Because of the global warming the temperature is rising and ice are being melted day by day.
Both: Depends on Atlantic or Pacific side.
It's amazing how only the negative values reach the media front....Blah Blah.
I really thought that Peggy had enough sense to know it always goes down during the summer, maybe it is time to look at a calender, mine says August 2nd, and the arctic is north of the equator, so that means it is summer
A recent question talked about purported recent increases in Arctic sea ice, and referred to the usual plot from NSIDC. (I'll give the link in additional details, since it seems to have caused problems the first time I asked this question.)
When I look at that plot, all I see is the Arctic sea ice going down, down, down. It could be that my aging eyes are not good, or it could be that I can distinguish between first and second derivatives.
If there is a time on the plot where the sea ice is going up, could someone please point it out to me.
