> Can AGW cause Melbourne and NYC to go under water and no more Australian Open and US Open for tennis fans?

Can AGW cause Melbourne and NYC to go under water and no more Australian Open and US Open for tennis fans?

Posted at: 2015-03-12 
The A in AGW makes it a no. Just GW on its own is most unlikely

As the FSM has already noted, both Melbourne and NYC are several metres above sea-level.

Even in the worst-case scenario, sea-levels aren’t going to rise to such an extent that these cities will be flooded. The greatest level of predicted sea-level rise is 1400mm in the next 100 years, this is the upper limit of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite observations.

Most observations and projections are that sea-levels will rise by about 500mm to 600mm by the end of the century, not nearly enough to sink NYC or Melbourne.

The greater danger of higher sea-levels comes from storm-surges. Coastal cities have always been exposed to the seas and oceans but as sea-surface levels rise the likelihood of them being hit by significant storm-surges increases.

London provides a fine example of this. To protect the city the Thames Barrier was constructed, this can be raised to cut London off from the sea. From the UK Environment Agency “Closures of the barrier have increased through the decades. During its operation, over two thirds of closures have been since 2000. It was closed four times in the 1980s, 35 times in the 1990s, and 100 times since 2000.”.

Had the Barrier not been in place then just a couple of weeks ago London would have been repeatedly inundated by extreme flooding at a cost of many billions of pounds.

As far as the tennis is concerned, if it moves to a new location at any time in the foreseeable future it will be for reasons other than rising sea-levels.

Nope. At least neither site is at risk of becoming permanently flooded in the next 400 years. There are lots of other reasons for the tournaments to end in 400 years, but direct flooding of the sites is not one. The greater risk is to surrounding areas, especially in New York. JFK airport will not exist in 400 years unless levies are built, but realistically we don't know how people will be using airports in that period anyhow.

When you consider the damages from AGW, don't think of Waterworld; it's not like that. Consider the extra damage from Sandy or Haiyan that came from extra inches of sea level. There are neighborhoods in New Jersey where people had homes but cannot live there now, people lost their homes. These are not places that are permanently flooded, but insurance companies are building the rising sea levels in to their rates and people in those areas now cannot afford flood insurance. Already sea level is wiping away neighborhoods, even though those neighborhoods will be flooded only one week each decade or two. The economics are here, but big business events such as the tennis tournaments have the deep pockets to adapt.

"Can AGW cause Melbourne and NYC to go under water." Yes they can, although not in our lifetime. I seriously doubt we will continue using fossil fuels to the extend we will in the near future as wind energy is already cheaper then coal, oil and even nuclear, while only natural gas is still cheaper. [1]

"no more Australian Open and US Open for tennis fans" Of course not, if those cities ever did go under water the organizers will simply relocate those sport events. Note that the current elevation of Melbourne is 31 m (102 ft) [2] and New York 10 m (33 ft).

No. Sea level rise from global warming is gradual at a few mm per year. The US and Australian Open will manage to adjust to higher levels over time.

Don't give these politicians any more ideas. Now they will put a carbon tax on playing tennis.

In direct answer to the question. Aren't you glad that AGW is just a scam? No it is not possible for a scam to put those under water in a literal sense. Although they could 'sink' it with taxes.

Probably the bigger issue would be warmer ocean surface temperatures generating larger storms. The storm surge has already hit NYC pretty good once.

I'm not worried about it. All their dire predictions haven't came true. Why would you believe someone who keeps predicting doom when they keep redrawing the lines in the sand. FSM, if wind were cheaper, there would be wind farms springing up everywhere.

Yes, but it won't happen this year- or next year either.