Total rubbish, look at the graph again, from year 2000 to now it is cooling, and why should atmospheric temperature magically decide to go into the oceans.

It's not just a pause it is a cooling.

The problem with cherry-picking start dates and end dates and using unrealistically short timescales is that it’s very easy to misrepresent what’s actually happening.

Move the start date five years back and global warming appears quite pronounced:

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/fro...

Move it five years forward and there’s no change at all:

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/fro...

Move it forward three years and a cooling trend appears:

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/fro...

We know that temperatures over the last 10 years or so have remained constant, the skeptics seem to think that this disproves the theory of global warming. But of course, what they’re not doing is looking at the reasons why temperatures have stalled, this would deflate their fallacious argument completely.

If there was no global warming then temperatures should be tumbling. Solar activity is low and this induces cooling, atmospheric aerosol levels are rising and this induces cooling, the net effect of oceanic oscillations is a negative one and this too induces cooling. Within the longer cycles we’re in a pronounced cooling phase. In short, pretty much everything is trying to cool the planet down, if it weren’t for the compensatory effects of global warming then we would have seen a marked decline in temperatures since 1979.

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EDIT: TO TOMCAT

I didn’t say everything was trying to cool the planet, I said pretty much everything. I’ll tell you what, why not list the natural factors that are inducing warming. I can think of three, there’s a fourth that is debatable and a fifth which is on the cusp, there’s a whole lot more in cooling/negative phases. Further, ALL of the dominant forces bar one are in cooling mode. See how you get on.

Kano: It has not been 'cooling since 2000' You can cherry pick time periods and state it has been cooling since 2001, 2002, 2003 or 2004 but you are merely relying on the effects of the ENSO cycle during the years 2007 and onward to make a declining trend. I've posted this time and time again yet, for soem reason, people seem oblivious to it when I have even included the data and the graphs.

And Ian, the 'missing heat' is determined due to the measured energy imbalance of the system not causing the warming that is attributable to the heat retained. This does not mean there is a pause or that the energy has slowed down or that the warming has not sped up. It means that all the energy, as measured, is not accounted for. Once again, you have failed to use logic and common sense. If you have an increase of 10 but the item is only warming by 5 then you have to explain where that other 5 is going. There is still an increase just not the increase which has been measured.

Flossie: It has not gotten colder. The 'trend', which is what climate change is measured by, shows an increase. Satellite data shows that the energy imbalance of the planet is increasing. If that energy is not going to heat the atmosphere it is going toward heating or doing something else. This is common sense. Evidently what you call common sense gobbledygook.

Ottawa Mike: http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/semi...

Flossie: The heat didn't; all of a sudden decide to transfer itself into the ocean. It is a result of natural oceanic circulation and cycles. As the circulation continues that heat is transferred into the deeper oceans. As this occurs the surface is still warming. It isn't magic as you would have others believe.

Flossie: They can and have measured it. http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CON... See tab 2. Heat just doesn't "disappear", as you would have us believe, nor does it "appear from nowhere", as others in here would have us believe.

http://myweb.wwu.edu/dbunny/pdfs/pdo/pac...

http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/p...

Does this mean we have more time to 'fix' what we have done? Possibly. Possibly not. Does this mean everything is alright because the heat has miraculously disappeared? No. The heat is still in the system, it just is not in the atmosphere. And when that ocean heat resurfaces we will feel that effects of that heat.

@JeffM: "And Ian, the 'missing heat' is determined due to the measured energy imbalance of the system not causing the warming that is attributable to the heat retained."

No, the "missing heat" is a calculation imbalance of the difference between the expected energy in the atmosphere and the measured data. This calculation difference was attempted to be explained by more and different calculations here: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.10...

A good explanation of all this is that the calculations have been incorrect or inaccurate. That however is a very undesirable explanation and thus has been least discussed and summarily dismissed.

However, as I pointed out in a recent question, some climate scientists like Hans von Storch are in fact at least addressing the possibility that the calculations have been in fact incorrect:

"Storch: If things continue as they have been, in five years, at the latest, we will need to acknowledge that something is fundamentally wrong with our climate models. A 20-year pause in global warming does not occur in a single modeled scenario. But even today, we are finding it very difficult to reconcile actual temperature trends with our expectations." http://www.spiegel.de/international/worl...

Jeff,

I've heard some gobbledygook in my time, but you take the biscuit.

It's not getting cold because although it's colder as we don't know why it's cold or where the heat hs gone?

That's supposed to make sense?

It's got colder, live with it.

EDIT @ Jeff: Why all of a sudden has the heat (the missing heat) decided to transfer itself into the oceans? How come this hypothesis has only been broached since the world started cooling?

Thought you had ways of measuring the ocean's temperature?

EDIT @ Jeff: How come we have never heard of this disappearing heat then up until now? Who discovered it? How do they know if they can't measure it?

More questions than answers.

Hey there, stop spreading lies, there is significant cooling, just look at the data, and according to science it will continue.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/fro...

And Trevor, OMG, that is just so wrong, everything is not trying to cool the planet right now.

EDIT:

The facts are that we are near the peak of a solar cycle, and while it is not a strong solar cycle,TSI levels and solar activity have increased over the last two years, a peer reviewed study indicates that the stratosphere is allowing more heat through the stratosphere than before Pinatubo and the black carbon component of the Asian brown cloud has a warming effect, and last but not least the AMO has not switched yet. There is much uncertainity, and even more to be skeptical about :)

Is your inspiration Billy Bunter?

You sound just like him when he's in panic-explaining mode, Charles Hamilton would have been proud of you.

PS, what are we supposed to be looking at? The fact that it's colder now than 2004, or what preciously?

Well done for explaining the science of agw in layman's terms.

I listened carefully.

I thought it was very funny :)

You're right! If you plot that graph from 1978 to present day temperature, then you will see that in 1978 it was -0.1 C departure from normal and today it is 0.1 C. You are exactly right! It has warmed 0.2 Celsius since 1978. That's an average rate of increased temperature of 0.005714286 C per year.

In the meantime your linear equation falls apart with the increases of CO2 during that time period.

May 1978 - 330.07

May 2013 - 399.77

Difference - 69.7ppm which equals a 21+% increase of CO2 in our atmosphere since 1978

Is a 0.2 C rise equal to a 21% increase of temperature?

Science knows that our climate is chaotic and non-linear so your temperature comparison means absolutely nothing.

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I guess if we can plot the graph from around 1980 to present, then we could say there was zero warming in the past 33 years.

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Your graph toy is kind of fun to play with. I can cause Global Warming and Global Cooling. I just have to pick the right years.

Funny and not surprising that most people don't understand sarcasm. Warmons are notorious for failing to understand ambiguity, uncertainty, semantics, or contradiction.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1995/to:2013/plot/rss/from:1995/to:2013/trend

Listen carefully,

There is no pause in global warming. Temperatures are rising steadily as man made C02 continues to rise. These aren't the droids you;re looking for. The pause does not exist and even if it did, which it doesn't, it would be caused by the missing heat hiding in the deep ocean where we can't measure it but since there is no pause the point is moot. Just understand that if there was a pause, which there totally isn't, it would be caused by heat sinks, which it isn't because there is totally no pause anyways so that's mainly just a hypothetical explanation because there is no pause. But it is caused by the missing heat just in case deniers think there might be a pause.... which there totally isn't.

A Long Time Ago in a Climate Far Far Away