http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/wti/fro...
The two trend lines are offsets from the linear OLS trend (+/- 0.07) The upper (green) line represents the approximate trend in the shift between ENSO neutral and El Nino conditions. Similarly, the lower (blue) line divides the neutrals and La Ninas.
By projecting these lines forward, it can be seen that the next El Nino WILL be warmer than 1998. A warmer year with Enso neutral conditions is becoming possible and for a La Nina year, it would be likely from about 2025.
Other data sets will give slightly different results; I'm sure Climate realist's answer is just as good as this one, as is the one from Baccheus.
Best guess would be 20 to 30 years. You are asking when La Nina years will be about 0.4 degrees warmer than the recent La Nina years. The most commonly predicted warming rate is .2 degrees per decade; the trend in the satellite period according to the Spencer/Christy record is 0.14 degrees per decade.
Can any of the deep ocean heat be released during a La Nina? Does that violate any laws of the physics? Answer those questions and maybe that answers your question.
On the other hand, if some skeptics are correct about declining solar activity then we may be headed for many years of La Nina and we'll look back on '98 as the all time record and remember the 2000s as "the good old days" as we stock up on long johns and snow shovels.
In 1998, the global average temperature anomaly was 0.62 degrees C. In 2012, a la Nina year, the global average temperature anomaly was 0.58 degrees C, 0.04 degrees C cooler than 1998. A la Nina year.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs...
1998 should be beaten by a la Nina year in the next five years and drop out of the top ten in ten years.
1995 and 1997, el Nino years, were beaten by 2008, a la Nina year.
Well 1998 was .62 in GISTEMP. Recent low years are 50-55. So maybe within ten years, though longer is also possible as the pause could continue for 20 years according to Judith Curry's latest paper on stadium waves. It has definitely happened in the past as the recent LaNina years are still pretty high.
If NASA and GISS keep homogenizing the records it won,t be very long at all, 1934 used to be hotter than 1998 then it wasn't. was this homogenization done for scientific reasons? temps before 1950 have been adjusted downward while temps since 1950 have been adjusted upward. they have been adjusted for political reasons
Global Warming ended in 2012 and all non- solids that rise into the atmosphere separates into nothingness. Thats what Nature does to protect earth. Mike
Perhaps in 2150 when we have finished with the modern solar minimum, and are back to maximums
More predictions? You're like the bums at the horsetrack. You keep losing and yet you keep coming back.
The ENSO (the cycle of El Nino and La Nina years) can lead to relatively dramatic differences in surface temperatures. El Nino years are warm, while La Nina years are cooler. An unusually strong El Nino is a good part of why 1998 was so warm. But the ENSO essentially overlays, rather than replacing, underlying warming. I'm fairly certain we've already had at least one La Nina year that was warmer than at least one previous El Nino year for which we have adequate records (if anyone can back that up, I'd appreciate it).
I realize this is pure speculation, here, but what are your guesses on when we will match or beat the average surface temperature of '98 on a La Nina year? Assume, for the sake of estimates, no significant change in CO2 trends between now and then.
If you have any evidence to back your guess, any estimates from experts, et cetera, feel free to throw that in.
