Current CO2 is 397 and the rate of rise is 2ppm per year, so we will pass 400 in the next 18 months.
http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators#c...
At the current rate of rise reaching 450 will take about 25 years, of course that assumes the rate stays the same which is unlikely with the rise in industrial activity in countries like China and the still developing economies of countries like India and Brazil. But even at 2ppm we will reach 450 by ~2040. By that stage it is extremely likely we will have no Summer sea ice in the Arctic. Also at the current rate of rise, sea level will have risen at least a further 8cm in 25 years. But given that sea level rise 25 years ago was 1.7mm per year and today it is 3.16mm that also seems unlikely. Given what is happening in Greenland at the moment a rise in the yearly rate seems likely with the decade.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-17/gl...
They often use the story of the frog in a pot of water slowly boiled to death. There may be climatic changes but even at the accelerated levels predicted, the average person will barely notice just as people hardly realize that everything they buy today is so much more expensive then just ten years ago.
Here is a temperature graph that shows what happened during the last increase of 50 PPM. The aftermath of Pinatubo associated with the temperature drop during the early to mid 90's makes it difficult to unravel how much warming occured and how much of that was caused by CO2, but at the most modest of climate sensitivity parameters only half of the warming could have possibly been caused by CO2. So the graph shows .3 degree's of warming since 1987 and only half of that could have possibly been caused by increased CO2, which leaves .15 degrees. Since CO2 build up operates on a logarithmic scale, the next 50 PPM will have roughly half of the effect as the last 50 ppm. So in a BEST case scenario, adding another 50 PPM will cause no more than .075 degrees of warming. However in 25 years we will be at or beyond 450 PPM and we will be at the end of Solar Cycle 25 which is forecast to be possibly the weakest solar cycle in recorded human history, it is more likely that the Earth's average global temperature will have dropped by 1 - 2 degrees C. by then.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss-lan...
I hate to go this route, but my skepticism is exceeded only by my cynicism. There is nothing in the history of our species that suggests we are capable of sustaining interest or resolve beyond what we can envision a physical connection with. The greatest international joke used to be the “new” Soviet 5-year plan – which worked about as well – and lasted about as long - as most NFL team’s 5-year plans.
While the USSR may have been the most conspicuous buffoon, they were only slightly more worthless than the US. If you do not believe the course of history is driven by circumstance, what do you imagine was the probability that the world’s “other” superpower could, and would, out-stupid Ronald Reagan – who never experienced an original or adult thought in his entire life, but easily captured the soul and spirit of most Americans?
Regression analysis got its name from the results of a study conducted by the guy who invented the technique, He was studying the height of people based on the common sense assumption that tall parents would tend, statistically, to have taller-than-average offspring. What he discovered, however, was that the height of children born to taller-than-average parents “regressed” toward the mean. And so it is with everything human – the tendency to regress toward the mean.
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kano --
Nice job of regressing to science's Medieval Period.
What is going to happen? We will likely rise in temp another 0.2-0.4 degrees. The seas may start rising by 4 mm per year, instead of 3. Plants will continue to grow, life will continue to live. In fact, the extra warmth and CO2 will likely by good for plants.
Now I get that warmers like to scare kids with nightmare stories about some climate apocalypse, but once we is all growed up, we don't have to fear the AGW bogeyman.
I think I heard this same argument about 400 only a year or two ago. We hit 400 and nothing changed. Even the temperature went down. So go ahead and move your goalposts. It will be the same.
CO2 is a food not a pollutant. CO2 is necessary for this earth's ecosystem. I learned that in grade school science.
When we reach 600 and still nothing you will then extend it to 650. Ha! Ha! Your agenda driven logic is so visible.
Nothing. Just like I did when people were panicking about Y2K and the Mayan calendar apocalypse hysteria. I'm going to do nothing because nothing is going to happen.
17 years of increasing CO2 but not increasing warming. Must be a sign of things to come.
Probably the same as Emperor Nero did when Rome burnt. Grab ourselves some fiddles.
Kano
Plants need water. And unlike animals, they can't just conserve water. They must have an external water supply.
Photosynthesis
6CO2 + 6H2O --> C6H12O6 + 6O2
Me I will be celebrating, more plant food more food crops and greening our planet Wey Hey
Climate Realist, with CO2 plants transpire less and need less water
I tried a question similar but felt I was misunderstood, thanks Noah, Thor and Hey Dook, at least I think you guys understood what I was asking but CR and linlyons, whats wrong with you. It should be common knowledge by now we are going to pass 400ppm and we as humans are going to have to deal with some new and extreme climate. We haven't taken the warnings and at best we are going to now have to deal with the changes. Or what curl up and die. Come on guys lets hear some positive feed back.(I mean as it deals with this question)
