http://news.yahoo.com/comes-el-nino-good...
The predictions at 50% and lower probabilities are less precise than I personally expected, so that is telling in more ways than just the probability of an El Nino event and the lead time in which these sorts of predictions can be made. However, I feel compelled to point out that there is a far less that even probability that you will expire after reading any single answer to your question, based on actuarial tables and life-threatening events. Without knowing far more of the variables that impact you personally, a 50% probability of death occurring as a result of reading posts to this forum is completely devoid of any statistical validity.
That being said, I think this is precisely why we need to continue to invest in research and technology when it comes to weather and potential climate change. We need to do this without alarm while considering the possible impacts, and more clearly communicate the timing of those impacts. This question and additional comments/links accomplish this exchange of information clearly and without alarm. There are those whose opinions at this point are based on inadequate information and politics needs to be guarded in its response to those opinions...however, it would seem that some politicians are trying to make political hay of opinions both pro and con rather than trying to get to the bottom of the problem. It is certainly muddying the scientific waters for the general population. This question and the additional information provided in the links give someone like me resources to study, and is appreciated.
Can the trade winds which cause la Nina stop in a warming world?
But, if an el Nino does happen, or could happen, that will be the beginning of the next pause. I'm not cheering for an el Nino. The steady warming which we have may be boring to scientists, but is easier to explain and may finally lead to action.
Even without an el Nino, Earth should be as warm as 1998 in about 3 years.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp...
I can not find the article right now but there was a VERY GOOD article on this in Wattsupwiththat.com a week or so ago.
The article was complete with modeling etc explaining exactly what el Ni?o is how it works etc. Very interesting. From that and the numbers the author was able to provide then it did very much look like an el Ni?o event in the relatively near future was developing.
Well I guess it would all depend on the forecasting skill of the models. Also, I have read that forecasting heading into spring has less skill than other times of the year and also that more skill is present AFTER either El Nino or La Nina has started forming and not during neutral conditions.
I note though that some alarmists are cheering for a strong El Nino: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25...
I prefer Esoteric style of weather forecasting. With that being said I believe their is a good chance for El Nino around September of 2014. This will cause less hurricanes in the Atlantic. A warmer winter for much of the USA. OK, yeah it is total garbage just like all weather modeling as you only have limited data based upon the age of life supporting climate. Truth is El Nino happens between every 2to7 years and you can not predict it just like you can't predict future climate above maybe 10 days using computers. El nino's can be stronger or weaker. I find it funny how people condemn phychics but since there is a computer involved they can predict the weather. Esoteric forecasting uses the human computer and astrology/the sun to predict the weather......much of what the farmers almanac does. Humans are smarter then computers but my sources believe El Nino this September or in 2015.
Too much snow-climate change
Too little snow-climate change
Normal snow- climate change
Hot in Europe cold in USA-climate change
Cold in Europe hot in USA-climate change
Normal winter in both-climate change weather needs to be different in other regions.
That is how winter works it is my fault for driving and buying goods that use Carbon emissions to make.....OK I'm seeing the light now.
Here is an excellent write up by Dr. Michael Ventrice on Dr. Jeff Master's blog concerning the ENSO - http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMas...
From the write up - "BOTTOM LINE: The Pacific Ocean is now in a state that could reconstruct the base state of the Pacific, favoring an El Ni?o to develop later this Spring. That being said, it’s not a locked in solution yet as we need to monitor the atmosphere for future westerly wind bursts to help push the Western Pacific Warm Pool along. Thanks go to NOAA for providing the majority of the images used in this post."
Ottawa Mike, I read the article that you linked and I found no reference to support your statement that "alarmists" are cheering for an El Nino. Would you be kind enough as to quote this for us as my eyes must be getting old. ... Do you fear the next strong and extended El Nino, Ottawa Mike? Do you fear climbing stairs?
http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/artdat6_1.jpg
Honestly, I view it like I do everything here. Everyone is trying to chase the noise. Find the "missing heat". Claim no warming looking at this period, a lot of warming looking at that period.
It is all chasing the noise. Now I do agree with the warmers that there is a long term signal. Where I disagree is the nature of the signal. Even warmers here look back 60 years and place a linear regression line on the data!!!
If the temps are warming in a linear manner, then we can dispense with the scary predictions, dispense with the idiot notions of crisis if we don't act now and we can talk about long-term intelligent changes.
But talking about linear and long-term intelligent changes is the default position. The burden lies upon the warmers entirely when trying to scare the public into catastrophic changes. I can talk about long-term reasons to move away from fossil fuels for the simple fact that fossil fuels are not a renewable resource.
This burden of proof is NOT met by quoting some "consensus" that only acknowledges that there is warming caused by man. This burden is not met by showing past warming with a statistically signifcant linear regression line. In fact, these tactics do not even touch the burden of proof.
So what is the end goal??? Scare people into fear and action??? And when they figure out they were lied to, what then??? What then is that you will entirely cripple any future efforts of any and all environmentalists. Why? Because you will have used up all of your moral authority. You have already used up a bunch of the environmentalists moral authority with many things that have occurred, like the Greenpeace goal of killing nuclear power in the US. Many people no longer trust that environmentalists even care about the environment.
Well going by most of NOAA predictions (like hurricanes) that means there is probably a 50% chance of a La Nina
No John there is a 100% chance you will die after reading this
El Nino would bring some needed rain to the Left coast.
And as a bonus, Global Warming is back on! Sound the alarm!
... Oh never mind... you just did.
here is a short video explanation of el nino and la nina
Models show that there is approximately a 50% probability that an El Nino will develop later this year. The ENSO cycle has been neutral for approximately 2 years now. Looking at recent temperature anomalies we see that upper ocean heat changes associated with a possible El Nino-type episode,
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt
If we look at wind speeds we see the following
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt4.shtml
Projections call for a, perhaps moderate, El Nino event beginning in Northern hemisphere summer.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Projections usually occur up to 6 months in advance. However there is a new forecasting method that allows projections up to one year in advance.
http://www.pnas.org/content/110/29/11742.full
In the coming year how do you see sea surface temperature anomalies changing, how do you see surface global temperature measurements changing, and what do you make of this new projection method? Note: I have read that this new projection method calls for a 76% chance of an El Nino event later this year.
A 50% chance of rain = rain for 50% of the day or are meteorologists flipping a coin again?
Climate science is flipping a coin again!
50% means it might happen, might not. There is a 50% chance that you die after you read this reply.
Well your welcome for the recent news.
Honestly, I view it like I do everything here. Everyone is trying to chase the noise. Find the "missing heat". Claim no warming looking at this period, a lot of warming looking at that period.
It is all chasing the noise. Now I do agree with the warmers that there is a long term signal. Where I disagree is the nature of the signal. Even warmers here look back 60 years and place a linear regression line on the data!!!
If the temps are warming in a linear manner, then we can dispense with the scary predictions, dispense with the idiot notions of crisis if we don't act now and we can talk about long-term intelligent changes.
But talking about linear and long-term intelligent changes is the default position. The burden lies upon the warmers entirely when trying to scare the public into catastrophic changes. I can talk about long-term reasons to move away from fossil fuels for the simple fact that fossil fuels are not a renewable resource.
This burden of proof is NOT met by quoting some "consensus" that only acknowledges that there is warming caused by man. This burden is not met by showing past warming with a statistically signifcant linear regression line. In fact, these tactics do not even touch the burden of proof.
So what is the end goal??? Scare people into fear and action??? And when they figure out they were lied to, what then??? What then is that you will entirely cripple any future efforts of any and all environmentalists. Why? Because you will have used up all of your moral authority. You have already used up a bunch of the environmentalists moral authority with many things that have occurred, like the Greenpeace goal of killing nuclear power in the US. Many people no longer trust that environmentalists even care about the environment.
Well going by most of NOAA predictions (like hurricanes) that means there is probably a 50% chance of a La Nina
No John there is a 100% chance you will die after reading this
El Nino would bring some needed rain to the Left coast.
And as a bonus, Global Warming is back on! Sound the alarm!
... Oh never mind... you just did.
here is a short video explanation of el nino and la nina
Models show that there is approximately a 50% probability that an El Nino will develop later this year. The ENSO cycle has been neutral for approximately 2 years now. Looking at recent temperature anomalies we see that upper ocean heat changes associated with a possible El Nino-type episode,
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt
If we look at wind speeds we see the following
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt4.shtml
Projections call for a, perhaps moderate, El Nino event beginning in Northern hemisphere summer.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Projections usually occur up to 6 months in advance. However there is a new forecasting method that allows projections up to one year in advance.
http://www.pnas.org/content/110/29/11742.full
In the coming year how do you see sea surface temperature anomalies changing, how do you see surface global temperature measurements changing, and what do you make of this new projection method? Note: I have read that this new projection method calls for a 76% chance of an El Nino event later this year.
A 50% chance of rain = rain for 50% of the day or are meteorologists flipping a coin again?
Climate science is flipping a coin again!
50% means it might happen, might not. There is a 50% chance that you die after you read this reply.
Well your welcome for the recent news.
