That's only if you subscribe to rewritten history and make 1936 colder.
Considering that if you look at the information, 1998 is the hottest on record. The other "records" are when you add in statistics to the base to increase the value to it's maximum possible. I would say that we will not see a true 2°C increase for over 100 years if ever.
According to the models, we should have seen major warming over the last 15 years because of how much the BRIC nations have increased their carbon output but we haven't seen this yet.
Finally, if all of the models have to ignore all past warming since the last ice age, that means that the models are not correct and can't be trusted because the assumptions are incorrect.
The main causative factor of the ever changing weather is the ever changing temperatures of the oceans. The Atlantic ocean is dependent for its temperatures on two main areas, the Caribbean, where the water from the Arctic gets heated by the vents under the path of the Gulf Stream, and also the heat from the volcano slowly building an island in the Caribbean, and the volcanic mountain range under the Arctic ice cap, which, while causing the ice cap to temporarily melt quicker, due to increased underwater volcanic action, also keeps the water from the Caribbean warmer, with the result warmer water arrives back at the U.K. and Europe, with moister air, causing the increases in rain and snow seen over the past few years.
The same happens in the Indian and Pacific oceans, all currents are subject to changing geothermal heating by subterranean volcanic vents, the most familiar effect of which are the El Nina and La Nina weather patterns. Carbon Dioxide has little or no effect on temperatures or weather anywhere on the planet.
Relying on computer models is ludicrous, they only spew our what the programmers put in, and being as they are paid by Left wing Governments and anti Capitalists, they just programme what those paying the money want to see!
Basic physics has nothing to do with the question as you phrase it, as Carbon Dioxide is a chemical, and has nothing to do with physics, unlike Tectonic movement, which is the true physical cause of all climate change behaviour.
"Now climate alarmists have predicted that a doubling of CO2 would cause warming of 2C, 3C, 4C, or more. Yet at no point since 1998, has the warming approached that level. "
The claim is that *eventually* there would be a large rise in temperatures.
In the winter, if your house is at 60 degrees F and you turn the thermostat to 80 degrees, and it does not immediately reach 80 degrees, do you yell that Al Gore has sold you a liberally-biased thermostat?
There is little or no correlation between CO2 and the Earth's temperature.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut...
This shows that the Earth's temperature has gone down for over a decade, yet the CO2 level has increased during this time. It is a scientific fact, therefore, that CO2 does not control the Earth's temperature.
Anyone who tells you that 1998 wasn't the warmest year on record is probably not a meteorologist. A lot of global warming alarmists are trying to find ways to fudge the numbers, like they made the medieval warming period disappear, but it's obviously unscientific when they try to contradict established meteorology.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/
According to activists, we have always been on the threshold of an environmental disaster of unprecedented proportions, whether it's acid rain, air & water pollution, ozone depletion, radioactive waste. The world is always supposed to be dying. Global warming is no different.
>>So far, the record year to record year, peak to peak, measurements of global temperatures suggest warming much less, which is what is predicted by basic science.<<
What basic science is that?
There are no peak-to-peak predictions. A length of record longer that the historic annual climate data would be needed in order to conduct the necessary spectral analysis and to define the time and frequency domain properties of that kind of varibaility in global temperature.
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>>GaryF, doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere, under basic physics causes a warming of 1-1.5C. The rest of the predicted warming comes from feedbacks of the CO2 induced warming, particularly water vapor, and is derived from models. You can search RealClimate for the details. <<
That is not entirely true since, in addition to model estimates, there are results from paleoclimatic and recent empirical studies that define limits on climate sensitivity.
In any case, that is irrelevant to observed temperatures in time periods less than the frequency response of temperature. You cannot get to predictions of “record year to record year, peak to peak, measurements of global temperatures” with that information – and you won’t find anything on realclimate or any other legitimate site that says you can.
No we wont see temperatures 0.8C higher in 2018, CO2 is not the driver of climate people think it is, it's just a bit player.
I suspect what we are seeing now is not a pause, it is the top of a peak, and we are on our way down.
This year Global Average Temperatures (GAT) of August were 0.28C below the GAT norm of August of last year while CO2 levels continued to rise. Last year GAT was 0.90C above the established "normal" temperature. In August 2013 we know GAT was 0.62C above. That means that the GAT is declining!
"The Global Average Temperature" (GAT) of the whole world is declining!
Climate science does not depend on predictions or upon anti-science lies about "alarmists" made up by the fossil fuel industry, whether such lies are stupidly copy-pasted 100 times or 1000 times at Yahoo Joke Answers.
U.S. National Academy of Sciences, 2010:
http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record...
“Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for a broad range of human and natural systems.”
http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpine...
“Choices made now about carbon dioxide emissions reductions will affect climate change impacts experienced not just over the next few decades but also in coming centuries and millennia…Because CO2 in the atmosphere is long lived, it can effectively lock the Earth and future generations into a range of impacts, some of which could become very severe.”
http://www.physics.fsu.edu/awards/NAS/
“The Academy membership is composed of approximately 2,100 members and 380 foreign associates, of whom nearly 200 have won Nobel Prizes. Members and foreign associates of the Academy are elected in recognition of their distinguished and continuing achievements in original research; election to the Academy is considered one of the highest honors that can be accorded a scientist or engineer.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_...
http://www.aps.org/publications/apsnews/...
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/timel...
Looking at GISTEMP, I see that 1998 had a then record temperature, which has since been beaten a few times, but only barely. Now climate alarmists have predicted that a doubling of CO2 would cause warming of 2C, 3C, 4C, or more. Yet at no point since 1998, has the warming approached that level. So far, the record year to record year, peak to peak, measurements of global temperatures suggest warming much less, which is what is predicted by basic science. Doubling of CO2 is around 1-1.5C of warming. By what year do you think we can expect to see the predicted level of high global warming break through? For example, will we see temperatures in 2018 at least .8C above 1998, for a trend of a hundred year gain of 4C?
looking at short term surface temperatures does not give a good picture of the long term and what the oceans are doing. You are conveniently hiding the year for the predicted 2-4C which is typically 2100.
Adding more noise to the discussion is not changing the physics and long term changes.
Hopefully when we're dead and other people could worry about it
If we are smart, and use clean energy sources, such as solar, wind and nuclear power, never. If we are dumb, worship oil, coal and SUVs and have accidents in our pants when the toilets back up in nuclear power plants, when these temperatures do come, they will be too soon.
it will not rise that much
