Cant do links but Chris Landsea was the top IPCC Huricaine expert who quit after being repeatedly ignored. He had a full lecture on the to n youtube but seems to have been removed. but search chris landsea ipcc letter.
For tropical cyclones, the IPCC AR5 (where Pielke extracted those quotes) is essentially unchanged from the IPCC SREX report in 2012 which stated: "There is low confidence in any observed long-term (i.e., 40 years or more) increases in tropical cyclone activity (i.e., intensity, frequency, duration), after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities."
So I do agree that for example when Hurricane Sandy hit last year, the anti-science deniers were out in full force which was amplified as a result of global warming (the force of the deniers that is).
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@Some1Has: "Anyone, with any knowledge of the subject, will tell you that water vapor is the energy needed for weather systems."
No, the energy needed for weather systems is uneven heating causing temperature gradients, pressure cells and wind in either vertical or horizontal planes. The latent heat of condensation of water vapor is the energy imbalance which causes low pressure systems to form leading to a specific type of weather called a tropical cyclone over tropical seas.
One can speculate that increased water vapor could increase either the intensity or the frequency (or both) of tropical cyclones but as the IPCC has stated (at least twice now), there is a low confidence that there has been a long term increase in such a trend.
So one might then speculate that either water vapor content has not been increasing as one might expect, SST in the tropics have not been increasing or that other factors are keeping tropical cyclones at bay like increased wind shear.
And that's what anyone, with any knowledge of the subject, will tell you.
I don't think anyone says that global warming "causes" hurricanes, so your question is moot. But hurricanes, or more generally tropical cyclones, are heat engines that are fueled by water vapor over warm seas. If global warming causes an increase in sea surface temperature, or an increase in area of sea surface temperatures great enough to support tropical cyclones (~80 F), then at least on the surface one would expect that the range of tropical cyclones could be extended and the ones that do occur could be stronger. There is some evidence that is suggestive, but hardly definitive, that there are more strong tropical cyclones (S.S. Cat 3 or above). Your quote actually addresses the total number, regardless of strength, so that is a different problem.
The problem is that sea surface temperature is not the only factor that influences tropical cyclone formation. The other big factor is vertical wind shear. Vertical wind shear can stop storms from storming, or make the storms that do form weaker, it is unclear whether wind shear will increase or decrease with global warming. My guess is that it would decrease, since it is connected to the horizontal temperature gradient through the thermal wind equation, and the horizontal temperature gradient definitely should decrease. However, there are modeling studies that suggest fewer storms, so it's still an open question.
Much of your additional details seems irrelevant to the question you asked, I'm surprised you didn't notice that, since it's your own question.
Ottawa Mike, in the case of hurricanes what you are saying is completely incorrect. Temperature gradients drive mid-latitude cyclonic (baroclinic) sytems. They absolutely do NOT drive tropical cyclones. As I said above, horizontal temperature gradients are connected with vertical wind shear, and vertical wind shear destroys hurricanes.
Just because there isn't any increased hurricane activity, doesn't mean that the moisture content in the atmosphere is changing. There has already been research that shows biomass has increased substantially (over 10%) in many places since 1982 which means that your increased drought areas are not necessarily a sign of anything. If anything it should be considered a moisture shift from one place to another.
"From Roger Pielke:
Of course, I have no doubts that claims will still be made associating floods, drought, hurricanes and tornadoes with human-caused climate change -- Zombie science -- but I am declaring victory in this debate."
Well, if that is all you have to do, I am declaring victory in this debate. OK, that is it. Everybody can go home now. ... That includes you, Roger.
What climate science tells us is that for a 1C of warming of the atmosphere, the potential for the atmosphere to hold water vapor increases by 10%. Anyone, with any knowledge of the subject, will tell you that water vapor is the energy needed for weather systems. The more energy available, the more potent a weather system can be. This, by no means, will tell us where or when any weather system will occur or if it will be beyond the climatological norms. What it does say is that the potential for more extreme weather events will exist and are more likely to occur.
Climate Scientist like Al sharpton , Sheldon Whitehouse and Chris Matthews do it al the time .
Even so called real ones like Helen Cullen and Micheal Mann on AJazzeras first day said that.
And the only cure is to price carbon . Thats a joke
Taxing something will have no affect except to cause a depression world wide . Or is that what they want to
happen?
Pielke is certainly right. Being on the right side of science certainly isn't their goal. Their goal is being on the left side of any argument. That is who they are, leftists.
Dook's link does provide a clue as to why he is so deluded. Who in their right mind thinks sea levels have risen in any catastrophic way in the last century. It is almost like these followers don't know we can actually go down to the shore and see the ocean. Frankly I'm not that concerned about a foot a century particularly when most of that foot is thermal expansion and most of that is probably from natural temperature rise IMO.
Global warming causes extreme weather, well maybe but we do not have increased temperatures or increased water vapor so how can we have increased weather.
Can you add me on skype please? I'm very confused about the problem
Here is what real top scientists have had to say about Heartland-Wattsup's denier of the week: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/arc...
First SREX and now from IPCC WG1, Chapter 2
“Overall, the most robust global changes in climate extremes are seen in measures of daily temperature, including to some extent, heat waves. Precipitation extremes also appear to be increasing, but there is large spatial variability"
"There is limited evidence of changes in extremes associated with other climate variables since the mid-20th century”
“Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century … No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin”
“In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale”
“In summary, there is low confidence in observed trends in small-scale severe weather phenomena such as hail and thunderstorms because of historical data inhomogeneities and inadequacies in monitoring systems”
“In summary, the current assessment concludes that there is not enough evidence at present to suggest more than low confidence in a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century due to lack of direct observations, geographical inconsistencies in the trends, and dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice. Based on updated studies, AR4 conclusions regarding global increasing trends in drought since the 1970s were probably overstated. However, it is likely that the frequency and intensity of drought has increased in the Mediterranean and West Africa and decreased in central North America and north-west Australia since 1950”
“In summary, confidence in large scale changes in the intensity of extreme extratropical cyclones since 1900 is low”
From Roger Pielke:
Of course, I have no doubts that claims will still be made associating floods, drought, hurricanes and tornadoes with human-caused climate change -- Zombie science -- but I am declaring victory in this debate. Climate campaigners would do their movement a favor by getting themselves on the right side of the evidence.
