There’s something wrong with the graph that you linked to, there hasn’t been the dramatic reduction in Arctic sea-ice extent as shown in the graph.
Your graph comes from the Danish Met Institute (DMI) and they obtain their data from the Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI SAF). The SAF’s use data from the European Union Met Satellite EUMETSAT. Only the DMI data are showing this sudden decline, the SAF and source data from EUMETSAT are consistent with other Arctic monitoring facilities such as the IARC JAXA Info System (IJIS).
Here’s the SAF/EUMETSAT graph: http://osisaf.met.no/p/ice_extent_graphs...
And the IJIS one: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/sea...
Looking more closely at recent behaviour of the ice in the Arctic, the decline has tracked close to the recent mean these past three weeks, prior to that was a week of slower than normal retreat and before that was the three week period that saw the fastest known retreat.
Today the extent is 6.011 million km2, the mean over the last 10 years is 6.001 million km2. It’s at the 6th lowest extent on record.
The recent cyclone hasn’t had a particularly noticeable impact on the sea-ice extent. The precise location, direction and duration of the storm will determine what the effect is – it can be to accelerate or attenuate either the loss or gain of ice, of there can be very little effect.
One of the ‘new normals’ is that these cyclonic events are becoming increasingly common and more intense. This year has seen a persistent but relatively inactive cyclonic system over the Arctic with pressures dropping to 975mb, this equalled the record set during the Great Cyclone that occurred last August (note: claims that the Great Cyclone caused the record low minimum sea-ice extent are false, the sea-ice was already at it’s lowest known extent before the cyclone developed).
If these cyclones last for a significantly long period of time, typically a week or more, then the wash from the waves can induce melting of the ice, particularly the FYI, and the turbulence in the water can distort and fracture the ice sheets around the periphery. The broken ice can be dispersed into the ocean causing an increase in ice extent or it can be washed onto the existing ice adding to the decline.
That is mostly likely an instrument glitch, I have seen it happen before.
Yes cyclones do damage ice badly but not quite as much as people think because not only do they break up ice and push it into warmer waters, they also sometimes pile ice on top of ice, making it more compact, that is one of the reasons 2013 bounced back from the lowest level of 2012 so quickly.
Antarctic ice is increasing by 1% per annum,and has since 2007 it is not a short term trend.
No I think you are wrong, most of the first year ice should be gone now and melting of older ice will be happening.
You don't mention the Arctic temps (from what Pegminer says is just a model) quite extraordinary if true, two weeks late at melting and three weeks early in freezing, although having only a small
effect on ice volumes, shows how much ocean temps affect the ice.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTar...
Jeff.
Some of the new ice that links old flows might remain, but the outlying new ice is probably gone is what I meant, I don't expect that much of a rebound this year, but am expecting next years ice will be much stronger and thicker.
Most scientists are of the opinion that the decline in arctic sea ice (and it has declined on average) is due to rising global temperatures. While the world only getting 1-2 degrees warmer may not sound like much, in the arctic it has a double/triple effect on its temperatures. That is why we are seeing ice levels at historical lows now.
There will however always be up and down swings from year to year - that is just due to random variation. The worrying part is the overall trend. Until that changes, then we should assume the arctic ice level is declining at an alarming rate.
With all the focus on the Arctic Sea and the Arctic Circle shrinking, we seem to have forgotten that the Arctic Circle and the continent of Antartica have gone through a cycle where one will decrease while the other will increase. These cycles have gone on throughout mankind's existence, so in truth we cannot just focus on one area of the world and not the other. So why worry about it now.
Your first link only goes back to 2005. Your second link clearly shows that sea ice extent is bellow average. That's something denialists don't want us to know.
Probably a glitch, NSIDC Doesn't show anything yet.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/image...
Same old Jeffy. Flipping charts again. "Hey fellas, look at this chart. It shows the ice amount went down for at least 300 milliseconds. See! See! See! At last I have proven AGW!"
Some people will go to great lengths to prove AGW. Jeff M goes way beyond that.
Wow. That is quite a change. I would check the program or satellite for problems. That doesn't look real. It is hard to tell but it looks like it bounced right back up. I would guess it is a glitch until proved otherwise.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/1_A...
So recently there has been quite a ruckus about Arctic sea ice trends being higher than average. For those that put so much emphasis on that higher than average trend what do you make of the sudden drop in extent?
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php
It is reportedly due to an Arctic cyclone. As we know Arctic sea ice extent has been up and down over the last few years.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png
Could this be one of the 'new normals' they were mentioning? Why do you think this is happening?
