> What is the biggest global warming prediction failure to date?

What is the biggest global warming prediction failure to date?

Posted at: 2015-03-12 
Well gosh, there's just so much to pick from. "Children won't know what snow is" is pretty standard fare for a good laugh. But the one that intrigues me is the missing hotspot. The amount of data gymnastics and wordsmithing done on that one is outstanding.

First, they didn't like the satellite temperature measurements. Then they didn't like the weather balloon measurements and finally they settled on getting temperature data from the wind: http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v1/n6...

All of these gymnastics techniques are on spectacular display at skepticalscience.com where they leave us with: "... spurious long-term biases as the most likely culprit." regarding the long term hotspot trend. If they tease the data they can see short term hotspots.

Of course they also say that the lack of the hotspot is not an indication of a weak CO2 fingerprint or a detriment to the greenhouse gas theory. Do you see how that works? If the hotspot did show up bright and clear, it would be another "line of evidence" for CO2 theory. Since it didn't show up, it can simply be put on the shelf as if it didn't matter whether it was there or not.

You don't need a PhD in climate science to see the fault in that line of reasoning.

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Edit: For further reading: http://climateaudit.org/2014/07/24/new-p...

I'm betting warmers just want this one to go away.

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Edit@Trevor: "An example of skeptic misrepresentation and lies."

Careful with your wording especially given you haven't exactly told the 50 million refugee story accurately. The prediction didn't come true and as a result the UN disappeared the page with the prediction. Here is a screenshot: http://probeinternational.org/library/wp...

Read more: https://www.google.ca/search?q=start&btn...

The UN then "updated" its prediction to 50 million "environmental refugees" by 2020. http://phys.org/news/2011-02-million-env...

This is similar to Arctic sea ice predictions which are supposed to be ice free any time between 2013 and infinity. If you think any of this is related to science then, well I don't know what to say.

My favourite filure is the denilist claim that Global warming is not occuring, no wait it is occurring but it natural not man made oh wait it's man hade but it's too late to do anything about. You denialist need to pick a lie and stick with it, the squirming makes you look like the dishonest morons that you are

The 20 feet of sea level rise was a pretty miserable failure as predictions go. Some of the predictions were kind of funny like poison ivy and mosquitoes becoming more common. Some were just plain ignorant like predictions of food quality going down as CO2 increased. I think the predictions of mass migrations toward the poles is up there. It is hard because there are so many to chose from.

Failed predictions are the norm for the 'climate community.' Here is a list of over a hundred.

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...

And of course in the 1970's they were telling us the big danger was Global COOLING --- they never have admitted they got that wrong. In fact some of the very same 'scientists' that were screeching GLOBAL COOLING back in the 1970's are the very same 'scientists' screeching MAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING today. These people have no shame.

But in my opinion their biggest failure is obviously the climate models themselves. These models cost taxpayers BILLIONS of dollars --- and they are all FANTASTICALLY WRONG. http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/u...

And then Alarmists wonder why no one pays any attention to them anymore. You can only screech the sky is falling for so long before people catch on.

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There's been so many climate lies it's hard to keep track of them all, although I think Tim Flannery's 'waves will soon be lapping over 8 story buildings' is pretty good.

Jello,

There are actually a number of predictions that time has shown to have been wrong, some of them a bit wrong, others hopelessly wrong. However, instead of focussing on genuine predictions you’re swallowing the spoon-fed nonsense propagated by delusional psychotics. It just shows how little these people know about climates and climate science when they have to invent nonsense instead of using genuine arguments.

<< Over 4.5 Billion people could die from Global Warming-related causes by 2012 >>

Really, do you have a credible source for such a claim? No, you don’t because no such thing exists. A perfect example of skeptics living in fantasy land.

<< by 2010, some 50 million “climate refugees” would be frantically fleeing regions such as the Caribbean and low-lying Pacific islands, along with coastal areas. >>

An example of skeptic misrepresentation and lies. The UN actually stated that there could be as many as 50 million environmental refugees by 2010, a figure which includes all those displaced by activities such as the diversion and damming of rivers, deforestation, famine, resource depletion etc. The prediction was correct, there are more than 10 million such refugees each year and the UN made the statement on 12 October 2005.

http://www.ehs.unu.edu/article:130

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Permafrost typically overlies peat bogs, peat slowly decays by microbial decomposition and this is a methanogenic process (produces methane gas). In areas of melting permafrost it’s possible to ignite the escaping gas.

Some 95 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalence escapes each year from the melting of permafrost from a total reservoir estimated to be in excess of 1.4 trillion tonnes.

Sporadically layers of permafrost can be broken apart as a result of melting caused by the adjacent warmer talik layers. When that happens up to 100Gt of CO2e is released in one go, this would create an immediate 2% increase in total atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (measured as CO2e, approx 3% if measured by volume or mass). Such an event could happen at any time, perhaps tomorrow or maybe not for many years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_meth...

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A tipping point is not an abrupt change, it’s the point at which something can’t be reversed, such points pass unnoticed.

Let’s say you’re in the desert, your vehicle breaks down; there’s a village 100km away, you have enough water to sustain you for 120km of walking. If you walk straight to the village you’re fine but once you go beyond the 60km mark you’ve reached the tipping point – keep going and you’ll be okay, turn round and return to your vehicle and you’ll run out of water and die before you make it back.

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Correct me if I’m wrong, but when you were previously active on answers weren’t you pushing the notion of an imminent ice age? Six years ago you were quoting a 20° fall in temperatures within the next 20 years (you didn’t specify if it was °F or °C). I’d call that a monumental failure of epic proportions, or will you now revise that to a 20° fall in temps in the next 14 years?

First off, the term "global warming" should be avoided (since it leads people to believe the climate will be simply a "few" degrees warmer). A better and all-inclusive term to describe this is global climate change. Second thing, The "tipping points" that you so causally deride do not need to be noticeable. The term refers to the point that it will be difficult or impossible to mitigate the impact of climate change. Lastly, you obviously don't believe there is change in the climate due to your characterization as "favorites". If you want to count yourself as a denier and ignore all of the data by keeping your head in the sand, that's fine by me

That if we tax gasoline the world will come to an end.

Gasoline has been taxed since the 1920s, and the world is still alive and kicking.

That prediction does not really concern global warming, and neither does 95% of what fossil fuel industry propagandists pretend climate science is about.

All of them

that it's 'a hoax'

it's pathetic how politics and religion are behind the denier movement



While there seems to be and endless list to choose from, a few of my favorites are -

1) Over 4.5 Billion people could die from Global Warming-related causes by 2012

2) by 2010, some 50 million “climate refugees” would be frantically fleeing regions such as the Caribbean and low-lying Pacific islands, along with coastal areas.

3) melting permafrost is increasing the levels of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere, and that melting permafrost may even cause an unstoppable acceleration of global warming

4) The endless number of "tipping points" that have come and gone without anyone noticing....

What are some of your favorites?