I'd agree with that with about 99.9% certainty.
2. Warming is likely to continue over the next century.
I'd agree with that with about 99% certainty until the laws of thermodynamics are proven wrong.
3. The last century of warming is primarily or entirely anthropogenic in origin.
I'd give that about 95% certainty since we see an increase in CO2 levels due to burning fossil fuels (and we know it's the fuels due to the isotope ratios) and no one has managed to overturn 150 years worth of data showing CO2 is a greenhouse gas.
4. Warming is likely to accelerate, if we do not take measures to reduce our emissions of GHGs.
I'd say I'm about 75% certain of that. The rate of warming may be effected by other factors besides just our GHG emissions.
5. Warming is likely to be more harmful than helpful to humanity as a whole.
Again I'd give that one about 70%.
6. If we do not take measures to reduce AGW, warming is likely to lead to the extinction of humanity.
I'd give that a 0% probability of happening. So I'd disagree with that.
7. It is possible for us to avoid the worst results of AGW by reducing our fossil fuel use, afforestation, geoengineering, and the like.
I'd support that statement to a 99.9% level of agreement.
1. The planet has experienced long-term warming (30+ years) over the past century and change.
Yes, 97% sure.
2. Warming is likely to continue over the next century.
Have no idea.
3. The last century of warming is primarily or entirely anthropogenic in origin.
I'm sure humans had a part. If it is 30% or 50% or 90%, I don't know.
4. Warming is likely to accelerate, if we do not take measures to reduce our emissions of GHGs.
No evidence of this. Seems like a baseless claim.
5. Warming is likely to be more harmful than helpful to humanity as a whole.
A lot of warming, probably more harmful than helpful. A little warming, maybe neutral or beneficial. Cooling, probably harmful.
6. If we do not take measures to reduce AGW, warming is likely to lead to the extinction of humanity.
Bovine excrement. No evidence.
7. It is possible for us to avoid the worst results of AGW by reducing our fossil fuel use, afforestation, geoengineering, and the like.
Possibly. Depends on what the "worst results" means.
Ooh goody, a quiz!
1. The planet has experienced long-term warming (30+ years) over the past century and change.
Yes - 99+%
2. Warming is likely to continue over the next century.
Anyone's guess.
3. The last century of warming is primarily or entirely anthropogenic in origin.
No - 80% (The Cook et al survey had only 0.3% claiming this.)
4. Warming is likely to accelerate, if we do not take measures to reduce our emissions of GHGs.
No - 75% (on the basis that 30% of CO2 increases have occurred during the "pause".)
5. Warming is likely to be more harmful than helpful to humanity as a whole.
No - 99+% (CO2 is nearer to an all time low than an all time high.)
6. If we do not take measures to reduce AGW, warming is likely to lead to the extinction of humanity.
No - 99+% (The apes survived much higher levels of CO2.)
7. It is possible for us to avoid the worst results of AGW by reducing our fossil fuel use, afforestation, geoengineering, and the like.
Not Applicable (Geo Engineering should be avoided at all costs until we KNOW that the cure will be better than the disease.)
1. The planet has experienced long-term warming (30+ years) over the past century and change.
With the exception of the past 15 years, this is true.
2. Warming is likely to continue over the next century.
I beleive this is false. Current trends and solar activity point towards a cooling climate for the next few dacades. Likely to be followed by a warming period for a net change of zero. another possible projection, if the Grand Solar Minimum lasts longer than we hope, then the next century will show a cooling trend without break.
3. The last century of warming is primarily or entirely anthropogenic in origin.
No.
4. Warming is likely to accelerate, if we do not take measures to reduce our emissions of GHGs.
No.
5. Warming is likely to be more harmful than helpful to humanity as a whole.
No.
6. If we do not take measures to reduce AGW, warming is likely to lead to the extinction of humanity.
LOL - thanks I needed that.
7. It is possible for us to avoid the worst results of AGW by reducing our fossil fuel use, afforestation, geoengineering, and the like.
No. In addition I STRONGLY believe that if geoengineering is attempted it could result in some of the doomsday scenarios. We would be messing with things we TRUELY do NOT understand. I imagine a caveman trying to operate the controls of a nuclear power station. He could get it right, but OMG i dont wnat to be within a 1,000 miles when he tries.
1. The planet experienced short term warming from 1970s to 2000. Since then it has plateaued. 90% confident in what I said. I wouldn't call that long term but geologist time scales are a lot longer than that.
2. 50%
3. 5%
4. 5% It is more likely to "decelerate" IMO
5. 5%
6. If we do not take measures to reduce AGW, warming is likely to lead to the extinction of humanity. <1%
7. It is possible for us to avoid the worst results of AGW by reducing our fossil fuel use, afforestation, geoengineering, and the like. Possible is an absolute. Worst? What is the worst result if it is generally beneficial which it certainly has been so far?
95% 90% 40% 20% 30% 0% 20%
I think the questions could be better written. For example, what amount of warming are we talking about.
The questions could also be reordered to form for most people a higher to lower list.
1. The planet has experienced long-term warming (30+ years) over the past century and change.
Yes (100%)
2. Warming is likely to continue over the next century.
Yes (95%) Some natural cooling could occur over many years or possibly decades, but not the whole century. More likely, the warming will stop after we switch to new energy sources, but that will take decades.
3. The last century of warming is primarily or entirely anthropogenic in origin.
Yes (100%)
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp...
4. Warming is likely to accelerate, if we do not take measures to reduce our emissions of GHGs.
Yes (90%)
5. Warming is likely to be more harmful than helpful to humanity as a whole.
Yes (90%)
6. If we do not take measures to reduce AGW, warming is likely to lead to the extinction of humanity.
No (99%) unless the climate wars involve the use of nuclear weapons.
7. It is possible for us to avoid the worst results of AGW by reducing our fossil fuel use, afforestation, geoengineering, and the like.
Yes (100%) Use clean energy sources.
1,2, and 5 yes - 99+
6 no 99+\\3 and 4 - Those are not yes/no questions
7 - I don't know how to answer that question.
======
Zippi -
If someone can accurately tie the variance in mean global temperatures to specific natural causes then we would know that all Deniers are not either idiots or liars (or both).
1 Why bother with (30+ years) when we can just say less than 1 degree Celsius over 100 years
100% certain nothing outside natural variability.
2 Well 1, it hasn't really been warming previously to warrant saying continue to warm, and 2 , I do not profess to be Nostradamus.
3 Don't talk daft/what warming?
4 There is zero credible evidence to support that statement : 100% certain.
5 100% certain that history and widely accepted science confirms the opposite to be true. [ this is why there are more people found further from the poles.
6 Grow up.
7 There is zero credible evidence to support that statement : 100% certain.
1) That's true, 100%
2) It's very doubtful that warming will continue over the next century.
3) No significant anthropogenic origin. 100%
4) Greenhouse gases do not drive temperatures. 100%
5) The small amount of warming and enriched CO2 levels have been very helpful. http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;...
6) Total nonsense - 100%
7) Human activity is not driving climate - 100%
-----------------------
Please state your position, belief, or understanding, yes or no, and a percentage representing how sure you are of same (eg: "1. Yes, 99+%"), on the following aspects of AGW (all percentages should be above 50%, if you are less than 50% sure of a yes, your answer is probably no, and vice versa):
1. The planet has experienced long-term warming (30+ years) over the past century and change.
2. Warming is likely to continue over the next century.
3. The last century of warming is primarily or entirely anthropogenic in origin.
4. Warming is likely to accelerate, if we do not take measures to reduce our emissions of GHGs.
5. Warming is likely to be more harmful than helpful to humanity as a whole.
6. If we do not take measures to reduce AGW, warming is likely to lead to the extinction of humanity.
7. It is possible for us to avoid the worst results of AGW by reducing our fossil fuel use, afforestation, geoengineering, and the like.
When temperatures can be accurately and specifically tied to anthropogenic sources instead of a preponderance by politically motivated science communities, then we can say that less than 1% of any temperature change can be attributed to human emissions.
Climate science has specifically stated that the Earth's entire energy budget has changed by 1%. They can not tie all of that change to anthropogenic sources with any specificity. Only a preponderance.
The atmospheric make-up has changed 0.012% (CO2 - 280ppm to 400ppm = 0.012%)
You can stop with the glorification of climate science alarmism at any time. That is all it seems you do with your questionnaires.
Gary F - The trouble with tying global mean temperatures to anything is finding an accurate mean temperature. Just because science makes statements of accepted global mean temperatures based on their very own scientific means doesn't mean they are accurate. Do you know what I mean?
99% yes to all except 6 which is 99% no.
