How do you think ?
https://news.yahoo.com/global-warming-dials-risks-un-report-says-001136062.html
There is a ~60 year cycle, called the PDO cycle. It warms and cools and warms again. Add to this, there is also some linear warming, mostly occurring because of man's addition of CO2 into the atmosphere.
This is where it gets a little tricky. Right now, we are in a period where the PDO would have the earth cooling. Because of the linear warming, however, the earth's temperature has remained fairly constant over the past 15 or so years.
This is where the debate goes. Now one thing to note. I said linear warming. Every analysis that the warmers do of the past 60-100 years they use linear regression to show linear warming. What they have never shown is exponential warming or runaway warming. SO this crap you hear about the world ending or global warming drowning us all, is just crap. Their models are based upon silly things like tree rings. They use these surrogates like tree ring data and ice core samples in specific locations to justify their climate models for the world.
So what do they get using this junk??? They get climate models that constantly overestimate. In fact 95% of their climate models have been overestimating the current temps we see. So what we have is a bunch of scare-mongering.
We need to do something and reduce our CO2 output, but in order to get people's attention the scientists actively participate in scaring the public into worrying about a future that will likely never happen. They can justify it, by some convoluted means. The lengths they have to go, however, are so windy and twisty that they quickly lose all people, and people just nod their head because they don't want to admit a lack of understanding.
Here is something simple though. Something that most people can understand. If the temps have been raising in a linear manner for the past 60 years, which would be a safer bet. That the keep raising linearly or that the shoot off to exponential?
Easy-peasy. The warmers can say whatever gobbledy-guck they want, the temps raised by 0.8 degrees over the past 100 years, so you should probably expect a 0.8-1.2 degree rise over the next 100 years, if we don't reduce our CO2 output. Not scary, but we need to start doing something. You should definately not worry about 6 degrees of warming or the ocean's drowning us all. Not going to happen.
"Climate Cycle" is not the right phrase. To the scientists here cycles have formulas like: Asin(2πft). They will want to know the values of A and f (amplitude and frequency).
If you had said Natural Variation it would have been more difficult to refute.
The latest IPCC epic had its credibility removed several years ago when Rajendra Pachauri, IPCC Chairman, said:
"When the IPCC's fifth assessment comes out in 2013 or 2014, there will be a major revival of interest in action that has to be taken, ... . ... People are going to say, 'My God, we are going to have to take action much faster than we had planned.'"
The alarmist content, it seems, was already agreed in 2009. So much for using the latest science.
Climate cycle is correct and it is natural. We've seen it many times in the past, this is just another one.
But it's been cooling for at least 12 years.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut...
Top climate scientists say there is no man-made Global Warming.
The Great Global Warming Swindle
Trevor say there is a mountain of evidence, but he never shows any of it , he has also earlier admitted that to distinguish between man-made and natural warming is difficult,
Well at the moment there is no warming natural or otherwise, in fact there has been no significant warming for 17yrs 6 months, even though CO2 is accelerating.
Actually through Earths history, Earths climate has been remarkedly stable, even the ice ages were only a few degrees cooler, we have had volcanoes, asteroid impacts, changing solar conditions, rising and falling CO2 and still our planet has remained at the right temperature for life to flourish.
It is not part of a natural cycle. The Earth should be starting to gradually cool but due to the human increase in greenhouse gases since the beginning of the industrial, we are in the midst of an unusual period of global warming.
This warming is expected to continue for another 100 years of more unless we begin enforcing stringent controls over CO2 emissions, curb auto emissions, switch to alternative sources of power production.
Anyone telling you it is a natural cycle is dumber than a box of rocks
Sagebrush –
>>Trevor...But one that you can not prove to the contrary. <<
He cannot prove it is not the Easter Bunny causing it either. So what?
Besides, you know that there is no such thing as “proof” in “true science.”
=====
Kano --
>>Trevor say there is a mountain of evidence, but he never shows any of it<<
Your refusal to look does not mean he has not shown you.
>> he has also earlier admitted that to distinguish between man-made and natural warming is difficult, <<
We know that; however, Trevor understands the problem – while Deniers do not. Deniers are clueless about what counts as scientific data and facts, how to ask a scientific question, how to analyze data, and how to reach a scientific conclusion..
The Sun has increased its activities which released greater radiation to both poles and decomposed Ozone quicker. However, human released heat keeping gases have made the situation much worse, possibly leading to human extinction.
Strangely there are still some people who claim that global warming is a natural cycle, this is one of the laziest and feeblest excuses there is.
We know it’s not a natural cycle and a veritable mountain of empirical and observational evidence categorically proves this. Some people it appears, are either unaware of this or they simply pretend it doesn’t exist.
There are natural cycles that affect our climates but none of them come even remotely close to causing the magnitude of warming that’s occurred in recent decades.
Most of the natural variation relates to the complex way Earth moves in space, the interaction of our planet with the Sun and the amount of solar radiation we receive. Over long periods of time these effects can cause very significant climatic changes, but it’s an exceptionally slow process.
The most pronounced warming of any natural cycle is observed during the positive phase of the cycle of the eccentric solar orbit (changes in the path Earth takes around the Sun). This occurs every 95,000 years and heralds the onset of the interglacial periods (warm periods between ‘ice-ages’). The warming phase takes 11,000 years during which time Earth warms by some 7°C, other cycles can amplify or attenuate this such that the actual warming could be 1°C more or less.
Eccentricity is by far the most significant cycle that humanity has ever experienced, it causes warming at the rate of 1°C every 1500 years or so. In nature this as quite astounding, but it’s nothing compared to the warming in recent decades, being as it is, no more than one fifteenth the rate of recent warming.
There are short-term cycles associated with oceanic, atmospheric and solar variations but these occasion both warming and cooling episodes, after a few years or decades they cancel each other out and have little long-term effect on the climate.
For several years now both the long-term and short-term natural signals have been cooling ones. Right now we should be in the process of an approx 20 year period of pronounced cooling caused by oceanic changes known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This isn’t happening because manmade warming has cancelled out the cooling.
Given the evidence and what we know, it’s no surprise therefore that there isn’t a single government or scientific organisation on Earth that disputes the reality of manmade global warming.
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EDIT: TO SAGEBRUSH (1)
Yet again you’re talking complete and utter nonsense and throwing around wild and unsubstantiated accusations; in your world such behaviour changes reality; psychologists call it denialism.
The simple fact is that you have never provided anything that it is even remotely scientific or accurate to back up your claims. You conclude your answer by stating that the warming is a natural cycle. In which case you’ll have absolutely no trouble identifying which cycle it is, please do so and back up your claims with credible sources. You can’t and you won’t, just like always.
Another example of your delusion: you claim there have been all kinds of cold weather records this year. The fact is, and I know you detest facts, that there have been seven cold weather records whilst at the same time there have been 37 hot weather records. They’re all listed here:
http://www.mherrera.org/temp.htm
Of course, in your world you totally ignore the 84% of hot weather records and pretend they don’t exist. If there had been no warming then we would expect approximately the same number of hot and cold weather records to be set. Please explain why that’s not happening.
Last year there were 19 cold weather records and 383 hot weather ones. In the last 10 years there were 235 cold weather records, 1922 hot ones. They’re all listed here:
http://www.mherrera.org/records.htm
Every one of the hottest years on record has occurred recently, something else you totally ignore. Here’s the data:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
These things are happening in the real world. In your fantasy world only cold records are set and temperatures are perfectly normal.
Then you bring up the fact that governments are all for AGW. Really? So what benefit do the oil states have to gain by accepting AGW is real, why are the Saudis building the world’s greenest cities. And don’t say it’s to raise taxes because they don’t pay any. They admit it’s happening, are taking action and yet it’s costing their economies billions. Why would they do that?
Next you invoke Godwin’s Law of Nazi Analogies. This states that in an internet discussion the person who invokes Hitler or the Nazi’s does so because they have lost the argument and lost credibility.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_...
Then you say that I admit the world is cooling. Really? Tell me, if something is staring you in the face, how is it that between computer screen and your brain it gets completely rewritten.
Next you state that I claimed AGW is caused by the Sun. Once again, it’s staring you in the face. I referenced a 95,000 year solar cycle which I explained was of a completely different magnitude to the observed warming of recent decades. I also stated that during the warming phase it heats the planet by approx 7°C. Even more bad news for you – we’re in the cooling phase and have been for 8,000 years.
Finally you state I have been proven wrong time and time again. Please provide just one single instance of this, I’ve answered c10,000 questions with perhaps 10 statements per answer. That gives you about 100,000 statements to go at, see if you can find a single wrong statement. And I don’t mean your definition of wrong which is something along the lines of “that contradicts my delusion therefore I’ll pretend that it’s wrong”.
- - - - - - - - -
EDIT: TO KANO
You state that I don’t provide any evidence. Here’s a challenge – please indicate one or two pertinent matters that I have NOT discussed on this forum and give examples of where I haven’t provided evidence. I’ll admit that I rarely provide links and that’s because I generally don’t reference other sites when providing answers. The fact that you summarily dismiss the evidence I provide doesn’t mean it’s not there.
Determining that manmade global warming is real is very simple – it can be done at grade school level. A precise extraction of the natural influence from the overall warming signal is impossible because of inherent uncertainties, variables and unknowns. This does NOT mean that we can’t quantify with some degree of certainty how much temperature variation is attributable to manmade and natural causes.
- - - - - - - - -
EDIT: TO SAGEBRUSH (2)
You deride the data I referenced even though they’re directly from NASA and even though they correlate with the other global temperature records - including those maintained by sceptics such as Dr Roy Spencer. Are you accusing Spencer et alia of lying and corrupting the data?
For your source you chose Will Happer and claim “He has studied the sciences. He is very knowledgeable. He has proven his qualifications” but conveniently forget to mention that he has no qualifications in climate science, is Chairman of George C Marshall Institute which is funded by the fossil fuel industry to deny that global warming is happening, and that in his entire career he’s had the sum total of one paper published relating to climates, and that was funded by Exxon; not even peer reviewed and published by the George C Marshall Institute.
http://www.desmogblog.com/william-happer
Here’s Dr Spencer’s data graphed along with the NASA data and the HacDRUT data.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/giss-had-uah-rss_global_anomaly_refto_1979-1990_v2.png
Trevor, "Strangely there are still some people who claim that global warming is a natural cycle, this is one of the laziest and feeblest excuses there is."
But one that you can not prove to the contrary.
"There are natural cycles that affect our climates but none of them come even remotely close to causing the magnitude of warming that’s occurred in recent decades"
Oh yah! All kinds of cold weather records have occurred this year. People froze to death in Japan. In years past people froze to death in Europe. There is an old saying, "Don't pee on me and tell me it is raining." That applies to all you greenies. You are a sick bunch of lowlifes sucking on the works of honest people while only spreading terror and crooked propaganda for your vile agenda.
Governments are all for GW since they can clamp down on the masses and increase taxes. What self-serving government wouldn't? More money and power? That is just what the doctor ordered. As far as scientists are concerned, they side that you are representative of are a bunch of slime that make many claims but have no scientific proof and rest on you phoney credentials. "Climate scientist for 31 years." My goodness. The fact that you have been sucking on the breast of the public with nothing to show for it in improvement to mankind shows that you are a worthless money sucking creep that has no moral compass.
The theory of the Big Lie was succinctly expounded by Adolf Hitler, an acknowledged master of the genre. Here is what Der Führer wrote in vol. I, Chapter 10 of Mein Kampf (in James Murphy' translation):
"...in the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation. For the grossly impudent lie always leaves traces behind it, even after it has been nailed down, a fact which is known to all expert liars in this world and to all who conspire together in the art of lying."
Your actions are in agreement with Hitler, another despicable human.
You finally admit that the earth is cooling, something you were denying a year ago, and yet you still adhere to the fact that CO2 controls the heat. CO2 level is rising and the temperature is going down. Scientifically your theory is bankrupt and yet you still cling to your false religion.
You adhere to this type of logic: Quote by Chris Folland of UK Meteorological Office: “The data don't matter. We're not basing our recommendations [for reductions in carbon dioxide emissions] upon the data. We're basing them upon the climate models.”
The real model, the Earth itself, has proven you wrong and yet you still cling to your false religion. Did you learn any science at all in your science class?
"The most pronounced warming of any natural cycle is observed during the positive phase of the cycle of the eccentric solar orbit (changes in the path Earth takes around the Sun)." So finally you admit it is the Sun. This is a fact that MAXX has been telling you for as long as I have been on here and yet for those years you have demeaned him. Maybe you should come over here and retake your course in science from MAXX.
We have proven you wrong time and time again. We have caught you lying time and time again and yet you persist in spewing your garbage on this site and can only back it up with a phoney climate science degree.
In direct answer to the question. Normal cycle.
Trevor, "Every one of the hottest years on record has occurred recently, something else you totally ignore. Here’s the data:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ "
That is bogus and you have to know it. One more time because you are rather slow.
http://www.c3headlines.com/fabricating-f...
Here is where Jimmy Hansen corrupted the data. Once you corrupt data, scientifically you can never honestly use that data. As a scientist you should know this. Apparently you don't so what are we to believe? If you go by proven corrupted data naturally you can make any case you want. Here is where a real scientist offers his view.
Quote by Will Happer, Princeton University physicist, former Director of Energy Research at the Department of Energy: “I had the privilege of being fired by Al Gore, since I refused to go along with his alarmism....I have spent a long research career studying physics that is closely related to the greenhouse effect....Fears about man-made global warming are unwarranted and are not based on good science. The earth's climate is changing now, as it always has. There is no evidence that the changes differ in any qualitative way from those of the past.”
He has studied the sciences. He is very knowledgeable. He has proven his qualifications. He has seen nothing out of the ordinary. Yet you expect all of us to believe in the words of a nameless jerk who has been caught in lie after lie and is obviously seeing things out of the ordinary that don't exist to real scientists. Ha! Ha! My goodness, you are a wonder. Go ahead and cling to your corrupt data. Go ahead and imagine all the scary things that the earth will supposedly do to its inhabitants. But ply your con job on fellow con artists and leave the rest of the world to the sane.
Trevor, "Then you bring up the fact that governments are all for AGW. Really? So what benefit do the oil states have to gain by accepting AGW is real, why are the Saudis building the world’s greenest cities." Back in the seventies OPEC sold a barrel of oil for under $5. Now it is over $90 and that is thanks to you greenies. You can't see the forest for the trees. Ha! Ha! You are so blind in your self serving bovine manure that your eyes must be brown. What do you eat for breakfast, bangers or BS?
Someone say it just climate cycle.
How do you think ?
https://news.yahoo.com/global-warming-dials-risks-un-report-says-001136062.html
Trevor, "Strangely there are still some people who claim that global warming is a natural cycle, this is one of the laziest and feeblest excuses there is."
But one that you can not prove to the contrary.
"There are natural cycles that affect our climates but none of them come even remotely close to causing the magnitude of warming that’s occurred in recent decades"
Oh yah! All kinds of cold weather records have occurred this year. People froze to death in Japan. In years past people froze to death in Europe. There is an old saying, "Don't pee on me and tell me it is raining." That applies to all you greenies. You are a sick bunch of lowlifes sucking on the works of honest people while only spreading terror and crooked propaganda for your vile agenda.
Governments are all for GW since they can clamp down on the masses and increase taxes. What self-serving government wouldn't? More money and power? That is just what the doctor ordered. As far as scientists are concerned, they side that you are representative of are a bunch of slime that make many claims but have no scientific proof and rest on you phoney credentials. "Climate scientist for 31 years." My goodness. The fact that you have been sucking on the breast of the public with nothing to show for it in improvement to mankind shows that you are a worthless money sucking creep that has no moral compass.
The theory of the Big Lie was succinctly expounded by Adolf Hitler, an acknowledged master of the genre. Here is what Der Führer wrote in vol. I, Chapter 10 of Mein Kampf (in James Murphy' translation):
"...in the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation. For the grossly impudent lie always leaves traces behind it, even after it has been nailed down, a fact which is known to all expert liars in this world and to all who conspire together in the art of lying."
Your actions are in agreement with Hitler, another despicable human.
You finally admit that the earth is cooling, something you were denying a year ago, and yet you still adhere to the fact that CO2 controls the heat. CO2 level is rising and the temperature is going down. Scientifically your theory is bankrupt and yet you still cling to your false religion.
You adhere to this type of logic: Quote by Chris Folland of UK Meteorological Office: “The data don't matter. We're not basing our recommendations [for reductions in carbon dioxide emissions] upon the data. We're basing them upon the climate models.”
The real model, the Earth itself, has proven you wrong and yet you still cling to your false religion. Did you learn any science at all in your science class?
"The most pronounced warming of any natural cycle is observed during the positive phase of the cycle of the eccentric solar orbit (changes in the path Earth takes around the Sun)." So finally you admit it is the Sun. This is a fact that MAXX has been telling you for as long as I have been on here and yet for those years you have demeaned him. Maybe you should come over here and retake your course in science from MAXX.
We have proven you wrong time and time again. We have caught you lying time and time again and yet you persist in spewing your garbage on this site and can only back it up with a phoney climate science degree.
In direct answer to the question. Normal cycle.
Trevor, "Every one of the hottest years on record has occurred recently, something else you totally ignore. Here’s the data:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ "
That is bogus and you have to know it. One more time because you are rather slow.
http://www.c3headlines.com/fabricating-f...
Here is where Jimmy Hansen corrupted the data. Once you corrupt data, scientifically you can never honestly use that data. As a scientist you should know this. Apparently you don't so what are we to believe? If you go by proven corrupted data naturally you can make any case you want. Here is where a real scientist offers his view.
Quote by Will Happer, Princeton University physicist, former Director of Energy Research at the Department of Energy: “I had the privilege of being fired by Al Gore, since I refused to go along with his alarmism....I have spent a long research career studying physics that is closely related to the greenhouse effect....Fears about man-made global warming are unwarranted and are not based on good science. The earth's climate is changing now, as it always has. There is no evidence that the changes differ in any qualitative way from those of the past.”
He has studied the sciences. He is very knowledgeable. He has proven his qualifications. He has seen nothing out of the ordinary. Yet you expect all of us to believe in the words of a nameless jerk who has been caught in lie after lie and is obviously seeing things out of the ordinary that don't exist to real scientists. Ha! Ha! My goodness, you are a wonder. Go ahead and cling to your corrupt data. Go ahead and imagine all the scary things that the earth will supposedly do to its inhabitants. But ply your con job on fellow con artists and leave the rest of the world to the sane.
Trevor, "Then you bring up the fact that governments are all for AGW. Really? So what benefit do the oil states have to gain by accepting AGW is real, why are the Saudis building the world’s greenest cities." Back in the seventies OPEC sold a barrel of oil for under $5. Now it is over $90 and that is thanks to you greenies. You can't see the forest for the trees. Ha! Ha! You are so blind in your self serving bovine manure that your eyes must be brown. What do you eat for breakfast, bangers or BS?
Someone say it just climate cycle.
How do you think ?
https://news.yahoo.com/global-warming-dials-risks-un-report-says-001136062.html
