No statistically significant warming for 15 years is what the majority of the global temperature data-sets indicate. This slowdown and reversal of global warming was predicted many years ago based on a predicted decline in solar activity. Recent data suggest that the El-Chichon and Mt. Pinatubo eruptions caused short term cooling and long term warming by altering the humidity in the stratosphere and further complicating the determination of an accurate trend. The best known physics indicates that if not for those eruptions the last 15 years would show a cooling trend as the last ten years currently shows. Even if you mix the data with a 5 year running average you cannot get it to warm on the most corrupt dataset available.

"The 5-year mean global temperature has been flat for a decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slowdown in the growth rate of the net climate forcing."

James Hansen

The claim that warming has stopped is a lie. The ten warmest years in the instrumental record are 2010, 2005, 2009, 2007, 2002, 1998, 2006, 2003, 2011 and 2012.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

As far as the claim that even scientists admit that there is no statistically significant warming, this is a matter of signal to noise; it does not mean that global warming has stopped, nor does it mean that the lack of statistically significant warming is something new. Let's say that the warming has not been statisticall significant for the last 15 years. If the rate of warming does not change, in five years, the time without statistically significant warming will not be 20 years, but it will it will still be about 15 years. And was the warming in the 15 years proceeding 15 years ago statistically significant? The answer is, "No."

Using the GISSTemp dataset and using 1983 as the start date and 1998 as the end date

Trend: 0.153 ±0.163 °C/decade (2σ)

http://skepticalscience.com/trend.php

Clearly there has been an upward trend with an unusually warm year in 1998 due to an extreme El Nino (or is it spelled Ninyo in English?). We have been generally warming for 300 years. We have had a cooling spell in the 1970s and a pretty good warming since then. It has certainly leveled off but it still has warmed some particularly if you ignore 1998. I am still not convinced humans have added significantly to it.

Yes, the extra heat energy is entering the oceans.

No, the global average surface air temperature has not increased according to satellites.

Yes, because 15 years ago was a strong El Nino and thus is a cherry-picked time frame.

No, it has not been "statistically significant".

It doesn't matter, 15 years is too short a time period.

It's natural variability.

It's the Asian "brown cloud".

9.3 of last 13.6 years have been the warmest on record.

The 00s were warmer than the 90s.

Seal levels are rising.

Polar bears are pissed off.

>>what is the problem getting a definitive answer?<<

See above.

_______________________________________...

@Trevor: "The reason for the levelling off isn’t because global warming has stopped (that would defy the laws of physics) but because the warming signal is being counteracted by cooling and dimming signals – both natural and anthropogenic."

Please double check the logic of that statement. In the next 100 years the "cooling and dimming signals" could continue to counteract and even possibly dominate causing a continued leveling or even a slight drop. Yet, you could pull out this 100 year old statement and still claim that global warming hasn't stopped!

This highlights one of the main sources of my skepticism. To be able to claim to know that warming will occur in the 21st century at whatever rate is claimed, then you need to know what the future natural cooling and dimming forcing are going to be. And frankly, I don't think you saw this one coming so I have no confidence you (climate science) have any idea what global surface temperatures will be in 2050 or 2100.

If you strip this issue down to it bare bones, the argument is diluted to "Let's reduce CO2 emissions just in case."

_______________________________________...

Edit2@Trevor: You have very little scientific backing and have put aside virtually all uncertainty in saying this...

"The possibility of a continued cooling/dimming for the next 100 years in miniscule to say the least. One of the main contributors is aerosol and particulate emissions from Asia, the governments there have already announced they’re going to address this, not least because it’s killing and affecting the health of millions of their citizens. When they do, this dimming influence dissipates in less then 3 years – unlike the greenhouse gases that we’ve already emitted which will keep warming the planet for about 84 years,"

...Apparently to support your real goal which is this...

"a truly radical overhaul of human lifestyles"

It's very telling that your solution is so radical when there are plenty of other viable solutions like CCS and going full out for shale gas that could easily meet future CO2 reduction goals. There would be a substantial cost for CCS on a large scale but it would not require an overhaul of our lifestyles. And yes, I realize these solutions would be transitory since fossil fuels are a non-renewable resource. However, at the very least, this should be discussed before we do a "radical overhaul", especially if they meet even the most stringent.

You are usually well informed and well spoken but you've let your activist cat out of the bag a few times and lately you've been spouting claims with very little scientific backing. At least you are polite and respectful.

_______________________________________...

Edit3@Trevor: Apologies. In re-reading your statement about lifestyles and "radical overhaul" I can see how you meant it as something that is not likely to happen as opposed to actually advocating it as the only solution.

No. The temperatures change regionaly on a year to year basis and more importantly on longer decadal time scale from shifting weather patterns due to the PDO and other similar shifts of wind pattern,. sun spots ect. A lot of the hype simply points out the regions where hotter temperatures happen to be, and keep pointing out extreme events and keep them in the news as long as possible. But these happen anyway. A new peer reviewed paper says nothing unusual has been happening recently. Even..... dang! cant think of his name...... "they" even admit, "No statisticaly significant warming has occurred in the last 10 years" (para)

This could have put the question to rest. But apparently some people would rather you not know the truth of the matter.

http://www.popsci.com/technology/article...

The troposphere is no warmer, ice has melted dramatically (causing the jet stream to become erratic), oceans have warmed.

90% of global warming happens in the oceans. The net warming of the troposphere is due to both the increased heat in the whole system and the movement of heat between the troposphere and the oceans and global ice. During El Nino periods the toposphere gets much warmer. During La Nina periods the troposphere cools because icy cold water is churned to the surface in the Pacific which absorbs more heat and cools the troposphere. The warming of the oceans is easily evidenced by rising sea level, and recent studies have confirmed it.

Yes there has been dramatic warming of the environment over the past 15 years.

yes absolutely the planet has gotten increasingly warmer in the past 15 years and is still rising.. not much to explain you can look up a graph on annual global temperatures and see the increase. but no, hybrid cars and "green" chemical products are not going to save us.. it's the cars and the products and the civilization that is destroying nature, we need to completely change the way we live on this planet, live WITH the planet instead of trying to own it and create our own world out of it. it will never work. we were birthed from this planet, we are natural beings and now we think we are better than the planet and we can do things on our own, we're quickly realizing this isn't the case. we can't even take care of ourselves, obesity and disease is at an all time high in history, as are suicides, mental disorders, etc.. we see all the STUFF we've built by destroying the planet and think we are evolving. in reality we are devolving as a people. it appears the planet has had enough of our bullshit. understand that the earth is an organism just like us, just like when we poison ourselves we must detox the earth does the same. you get pimples to rid toxins from inside you, the earth gets volcanoes. you heat up and get a fever to deal with a virus inside of you, the earth heats up just the same. hurricanes, tornadoes, volcanoes, warming all signs that a major shift is happening and it's time for a change. just like people are changing all around the world, protesting etc.. they've had enough. it's easy to see what's going on when you look at the big picture, hope i helped put this in perspective for you..

That's because there is no definitive answer.The temperature of the earth fluctuates all the time.

It depends what you mean by "no", as President Clinton famously said.

Will someone please answer the question, has there been any warming of the Earth, (the one we live on) over the past 15 years?

If no, please explain.

If yes, please explain.

Why is this asking too much, surely it either has warmed or it hasn't, what is the problem getting a definitive answer?

We are in the middle of a polar shift/climate change. We are also just getting out of an ice age. Global warming is crap. We are certainly destroying the earth, but on a global scale, we are a very weak parasite.

EDIT: No, not "global warming". Yes, the Earth is getting hotter, but it has 0.0001% to do with us.

No definitely NO, no warming for 15yrs, and slight cooling for the last 10yrs.