You can also remind that the us is not the world.
One of the explanation for extremes is the warmer arctic and the chnges to the polar jet stream.
Dr francis at rudgers university has a great presentation on youtube
Hello Pat,
You don’t need to get into a fight with your brother-in-law over this but you should be aware that some people who reject the theory of global warming can’t really be educated on the subject – it all depends on whether he is open or close-minded. Hopefully he’s open-minded and willing to learn.
The simple fact of the matter is that with or without global warming there are always going to be periods of unusual cold and unusual heat. What global warming does is the prevent it from being quite as cold as it would otherwise have been.
If for example the temps fall to –50°F then if there was no global warming they would have been closer to –51?°F.
You may also want to point out that whilst some places are experiencing unusually cold weather there are others where it’s unusually warm. Here in the UK we’ve had no snow at all this winter and temperatures have been considerably above average for several months now, it’s the same across much of Europe. The difference is that people in Europe aren’t jumping up and down proclaiming the warm weather is proof of global warming.
Also, global warming is based on global trends over minimum periods of 30 years. What you’ve got really amounts to nothing more than short-term weather in one particular place; from which nothing can be inferred regarding the climates.
If you want to put the issue of records into context then it’s worth noting that since the year 2002 there have been 9 times as many high temperature records that have been broken as there have been low temp records (2374 and 278 respectively). Last year there were 372 new high temp records and only19 new low temps. Here’s a list of all of them:
http://www.mherrera.org/records.htm
You may also wish to point out to him that all the hottest years on record have occurred recently. The 15 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1997 (2000 is the exception which is in 18th place).
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
You could also point to the Arctic sea-ice, this is very susceptible to the effects of climate change and we find that in recent years it’s consistently been at record low levels. Up until about 1980 it was relatively stable but since then it’s shrunk very significantly. So much so that last summer there was only half the amount of ice that there used to be. Again, we find that all the years with record low ice amounts have occurred recently.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
Do bear in mind that for those who know little about the workings of the climates it is an easy mistake to look at an instance of cold weather and conclude that global warming has ended. Of course, the issue is far more complicated and global warming is much more than a single local weather event.
Finally, you could point out that global warming is governed by the most powerful and successful of all scientific laws – namely quantum mechanics. They are universal and invariable, there is nothing anyone can do that will affect them. If he still disputes that global warming can’t happen then he needs to redefine the laws of QM and in doing so he’ll have to reconstruct the entire universe.
There is no doubt about global warming. It's effects are visible everywhere, especially in polar regions. The rest of the Earth is affected too. Sea levels are rising, deserts are expanding, changes in precipitation patterns have been observed all around the world. Those "doubters" who's only argument is "why is it 50 below right now" are not very convincing. They should read some books and educate themselves. If they doubt global warming and it's effects, they have no idea what they're talking about.
"intelligently"??
An intelligent person would notice that NONE of the predictions the climate scientists have made have come true--NONE.
An intelligent person would notice that we are in a cooling phase and have been since (pick one) 1997, 1936, 1300, 400 A.D.
Your brother-in-law, the "ignorant jerk" is right on this one.
Hopefully he will razz you for the rest of your life if you continue to be an idiot and believe these pseudo-scientists who look sillier by the day.
I'm glad you do, and please get rid of that question mark!
Global warming is an increasing trend in global, average temperature. It has many, complex effects, including storms of greater magnitude, larger amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere, and even patterns of very cold weather.
The current cold snap in the US is thought to be caused by a warmer air affecting the polar vortex, which certainly supports global warming:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-pola...
Many don't understand that global warming doesn't increase temperature everywhere. It drives more extreme weather, including unusually-cold weather systems.
Climate change is scary because there are several feedback mechanisms that are compounding to make the problem even worse, such as decreasing earth's albedo (reflectance) due to melting ice, CO2 oversaturation and release from the oceans and increasing methane releases from ancient bogs below polar sea ice as temperatures increase.
It's true that there is a historic pattern of temperature fluctuations but our impacts have thrown everything out of balance. It's not just a political issue. It's a very real, runaway, scientific nightmare on a global scale. It's very sad that there's so much ignorance, denial and lack of action.
The "50 below right now" problem is weather not climate. So you don't have to explain that.
The problem with Global Warming is that you have to carefully choose the start and end dates to show the warming. If you look at a longer range then you can see that the temperature always goes up and down and has been much warmer before.
Pat,
Don't let the closed-minded ( graphiciconception, Pat, fg56etc.etc.,gn Lee, Jim Z. &etc ) cause you to doubt your good human stereo vision and capacity for rational judgement. Global Climate Change (GCC) is a real thing….has been sound in theory for the last couple of decades, but now it's a clear, very real picture.
Allow me, first, to relate my own anecdotal observations. Anecdote is admittedly non-scientific, but still, valid and empirical observation. I live in Vancouver, Canada. I've lived here 30 years. Vancouver's coastal climate is classified by science as Temperate Rainforest. That is to say, it's damp year-round, with simply heavier climatic moisture [aka rain!] in the winter. Temperatures stay relatively mild year-round. Never snows. That's how things used to be..
...over the last ten years I have seen our climate transmogrify into something almost unrecognizable. We now can count on snow and accompanying cold temperatures many times in the winter. Cities and towns in this zone have begun only in recent years to invest in winter equipment like snowplows. I recall clearly the first few appearances of snow and ice here, about 10-12 years ago - people were reeling in shock! Who'd have BELIEVED it? SNOW in VANCOUVER??? NEVER! Now it's a fact of life. So……that's my personal observation.
But don't listen to me. Read the works of iconic British scientist Prof. James Lovelock on GCC. He's the man who first coined the term "Gaia" to describe planet Earth as a singular living organism in the 1960's. You'll find Lovelock in all major libraries and frequently in magazines and newspapers. Here's a good link to recent commentary from Prof Lovelock on GCC in The Guardian, "Humans are Too Stupid to Prevent Climate Change":
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2010/... .
Prof. Lovelock here describes a very scary scenario in which humankind's indomitable-until-now capacity to save ourselves this time will not save us. He thinks it's going to be an endgame this time, that we've left if too late and the "tipping point" beyond which there is no reversal of fortunes has been reached.
That's one Brit speaking his mind, but then Brits have a reputation of sometimes being a bit eccentric.
Canadians, however, have a reputation for no-nonsense practical thinking. Indeed, Canada was founded by a Conservative government, and that old founding political party has ruled the land for roughly one-half of this country's history. That party went arch-conservative in lockstep with the Thatcher and Reagan political lions of the 1980s. The old party, however, has had its ups and downs, and in recent decades has flipped and flopped like a fish out of water. Today we have a "hard right-wing" Conservative government headed by a Christian fundamentalist prime minister, Stephen Harper who, frankly, scares us more and more. Mr. Harper is anti-science, pro-Life, pro-creationism, etc. etc. Rather like a mini G.W. Bush. Liberal-thinking Canadians cringe. Harper's government, like that of George W. Bush, denies GCC. That has been its policy all along.
Just lately the Conservatives have become ensnared in serious scandals that are having a corrosive effect on the party's hold on government. The all-powerful control freak prime minister Harper finds his own ministers speaking out against his conservative dogma. GADZOOKS! Defy the Prime Minister will you? OH NO! See this very recent news story, "Conservative MP Peter Braid Says Extreme Weather And Climate Change Linked," wherein one daring, dissenting Conservative minister speaks out against Harper-ite GCC denial, on Huffington Post.ca:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/01/06/...
Global Climate Deniers such as the lot here who have weighed-in to scoff at your excellent question are living in a Fool's Paradise.
I buy Prof. Lovelock's science: Too late, too late, the horses have escaped, the dam has burst, now we all die.
Great question.
You shouldn't believe in things you know next to nothing about. First learn about the underlying science and then make up your mind. Don't let others make up your mind for you. They will always work against your personal interests.
It's a big wide world out there. The local area is not the world, that's explanation enough and all they would be capable of understanding if it's not already obvious to them
The ignorant have difficulty accepting the truth of AGW and always will. http://skepticalscience.com has 173 denier myths they have debugged This will give you the facts.
How do I explain to the doubters out there when they say, "oh, yeah? then why is it 50 below right now?" What is the reason we are breaking all records? I know it involves massive climate change throughout the world, but I do want to be able to explain it intelligently.
Climates always have changed and always will change. Nothing new or unprecedented about that. AGW is pure agenda driven politics.
Do you also believe in Santa Claus and the tooth fairy?
I believe it so.
everyone can believe anything
