http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CON... (See tab 2)
Note that the 'missing heat' is not based on computer models. It is based on measurements taken of the energy budget of the planet. That energy is not exiting the Earth's system. It is still within the system despite what certain people would like you to believe. If the energy is entered and did not exit where do you think it went? It has already been shown that the PDo is in it's neutral or negative phase currently.
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.late...
And the ENSO, which generally follows the PDO, has had increasingly stronger La Nina-like conditions.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ta...
The warming has not 'paused'. It has slowed at the surface. However there still exists a whole lot of area that has not been measured when stating the warming has 'paused' or 'slowed down'. Of course whether the warming has 'paused' or 'slowed' is based on what data you choose. It is short-term data. There is only 1 data set where the warming has 'paused' or 'cooled', that being RSS measurements which measure more than the surface, as does the UAH measurements which uses the same data (And please don't say the UAH data is flawed as it is run by your beloved Roy Spencer). The rest of the data sets there has been a 'slowdown' in the warming.
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/fro...
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:20...
As has been stated in here before, when stating the warming has paused or cooled you are not taking measurements from the entire system but merely one part of it, that being the surface, in the surface measurements case, or the lower atmosphere, in the satellite measurements case. This is what they are talking about with the statement concerning the 'pause'. The surface measurements have paused but you're still going to have to explain where the energy has been going that has been measured to still exist within the system.
One one hand, it is tempting to say that the missing heat could be due to instrumental error. On the other hand, whenever I hear a new skeptic argument, one of my first thoughts is, "Don't you think that the climatologists have already thought of that?"
But, suppose that Earth has a genuine energy imbalance. According the the first law of thermodynamics, the energy must be going somewhere. Since energy can neither be created or destroyed;
Input - Output = Accumulation
Could the missing heat be going into the depths of the ocean? According to the second law of thermodynamics, only if the depths of the ocean are cooler than the upper parts of the ocean.
So what is happening to this missing heat? Could it be hiding in a part of outgoing spectrum which accounts for several hundred watts per square metre for which can not be measured to the nearest watt per square metre? If yes, climate sensitivity may be low. If no, the energy (heat is a means in which energy flows, driven by termperature differences) could come back to haunt us.
Yes, and the planet Nibiru cannot be seen because it is hiding behind the sun.
Green & Amstrong (2007) found that the GCM models used by the IPCC in forecasting climate violated 72 of 89 principles of evidence based forecasting.
"The many violations provide further evidence that the IPCC authors were unaware of evidence-based principles for forecasting. If they were aware of them, it would have been incumbent on them to present evidence to justify their departures from the principles. They did not do so. We conclude that because the forecasting processes examined in Chapter 8 [of the IPCC report] overlook scientific evidence on forecasting, the IPCC forecasts of climate change are not scientific (Geen & Armstrong, 2007)."
“No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not
exist, seers will find suckers” (Armstrong, 1980, as quoted in Green & Armstrong, 2007)."
This is how science works. People continually make improvements, suggest new avenues, and tweak the parameters.
'Predictions' can be made retrospectively. It's called taking data, examining that data, using the data to refine the theories.
If you expected it all to be 100% accurate from day 1 then you have a funny view of the scientific method. If you want to wait until every little detail has been ironed out before you accept we're heating the earth then that's not an opinion but dogma since you can never then be satisfied.
That's double-talk to cover their goofs. All of a sudden the Earth is overcompensating heat storage. The quote "predict retrospectively" will keep me chuckling all day. Robustness of our climate models? How are these models dressed? There is some great material for a comic routine in this article, but I don't do a late-night show, so I'll leave it for the funny boys.
I don't care what the scientists say. I go outside, I freeze my as* off. It's not warm, it's COLD. It is the opposite of what they are saying.
No amount of data and statistics changes the fact that they said it would be warmer but it's actually gotten colder.
As far as the predictions made "retrospectively", they're probably referring to back-casting. The primary way to test a climate model is to "run" it for situations that already happened, and make sure you get the results that actually happened. If you do, that's evidence that your model is at least broadly right.
Read my lips. There has been NO PAUSE in Global Warming over the past decade. The pause (which is not occurring) has been caused by either:
Volcanic Activity, or the Chinese, or decreased water vapour in the stratosphere, or your mom's cooking, or the missing heat going into the deep ocean where unfortunately we can't measure it.
Anyways, stop pretending there is a pause when there isn't since you already know what is causing the pause which isn't happening.
That is pretty funny. I wish I could retrospectively buy Apple stocks from 1990. It seems that only climate scientists can retrospectively "predict" climate.
I am skeptical that "missing" heat is in the ocean. The fact that it is "missing" should be chalked up to uncertainty but these clowns don't want any uncertainty to threaten their cause.
The missing heat must be very intelligent and very advanced, because the missing heat seems to have developed star trek beaming technology. This is the only way it could get into the deep ocean or under the ice in antarctica without being noticed or heating anything on the way there. If there's no trace then it must just appear at it's destination. The only other possible explanation is that the missing heat is simply missing.
A recent study thinks so:
"Despite a sustained production of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, the Earth’s mean near-surface temperature paused its rise during the 2000–2010 period1. To explain such a pause, an increase in ocean heat uptake below the superficial ocean layer2, 3 has been proposed to overcompensate for the Earth’s heat storage. ..... The ability to predict retrospectively this slowdown not only strengthens our confidence in the robustness of our climate models, but also enhances the socio-economic relevance of operational decadal climate predictions." http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1863.html
Where did this study go wrong? Is it because they think that recent warming has paused or because they think predictions can be made "retrospectively"?
Saying that the so called 'missing heat' is going into the deep oceans is a sign of desperation by Warmists. Everybody knows that warmer water moves upward, not downward.
And what's even dumber is that even if Warmists were correct and the so called 'missing heat' was somehow diving into the oceans, that has nothing to do with any human activity. CO2 plays no part in that.
Only the Sun can heat the oceans, the air can't do it because air isn't dense enough to efficiently transfer heat to the oceans.
So even if Warminsts are right --- their still WRONG.
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It's supposed to be raining hard and thunder and lightening for the last 2 days. I have had 0.19" of rain so far. Where did they go wrong, they're always wrong. You program a computer to simulate a result that you want. It has nothing to do with reality. When they start getting the weather right from day to day then I believer all that balderdash. To cover themselves they blame everything on global warming, some reporter even asked if the recent near asteroids were caused by global warming. Here it is, I'm not screwing around with you.
http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/02/1...
Trenberth thinks the missing heat is in the Bermuda triangle extracted by aliens
gee elizibet, I thought the science was settled
