> How many false paradigms can you name?

How many false paradigms can you name?

Posted at: 2015-03-12 
Acid rain is not normal .

The sea level is rising

The Earth will freeze 1970s

The Earth willl turn into Venus Jim Hansen

Parts of NYC will be underwater

tree rings contain tempatures Micheal Mann

Ice cores layers are annual , they are seasonal

I'm not sure what you're getting at so I'll just do a history lesson that may be related.

In 1900, it was generally accepted that Lord Kelvin made this remark at an address to the British Association for the Advancement of Science: "There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now. All that remains is more and more precise measurement."

As we know, five years later Einstein published his theory of special relativity which pretty much turned Kelvin's remark on it's head. That was probably the most notable paradigm shift in science in recent memory.

And then there's paradigm paralysis where a current paradigm is maintained. Confirmation bias is a strong effect in maintaining the paralysis. This Paradigm Effect occurs when data which falls outside the paradigm is regarded and an outlier and is untrusted. It may very well be that climate science is currently in such a state.

A good example of the Paradigm Effect was the subsequent (attempts at) confirmation of the Millikan Oil Drop Experiment. This was a breakthrough experiment measuring the elementary charge and won Millikan the Nobel Prize in physics in 1923. Of course we now know that Millikan was incorrect due to his miscalculation of the viscosity of air.

But it took years to get the number correct. The reason was the Paradigm Effect. If you did a repeat experiment and your number was a little off from Millikan, who were you to fault a Nobel prize winner and his prize-winning experiment and so the number slowly crept up to the correct one. (as Richard Feynman noted, it wouldn't have taken nearly as long if they were doing proper science).

If a scientist is getting on your nerves bring up the Millikan Oil Drop Experiment and ask why it took so long to get the right number. That will shut him up.

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Edit: Hey Jim Z, are you alright?

Slavery is moral

The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

(I know there are lots of people who still believe that one. In the US, there are no poor that are stuck being poor. Many of those poor become rich and many rich join the ranks of the poor)

97% of scientists believe that humans caused the vast majority of the global warming in the last 100 years

Edit:

Doing great, how about you Ottawa. I am guessing you didn't agree with the poor getting poorer. In fact, generally (before Obama) the rich got richer, the middle class got richer, and the poor got richer and even in times when the government is stealing more than ever, we are still getting richer. I realize that isn't popular in some circles, it is simply the truth. I deal in truth and facts or at least I try to. What I said is easily proved by the fact that the poor in the US have color TVs, air conditioning, I-phones, two cars, and fat kids. It may be more difficult to claim you care for the poor if you are realistic about them. Taking from the rich and giving to the poor doesn't really do much good for everyone concerned.

Some modern beliefs

Saturated fat is dangerous to health.

Higher than normal cholesterol levels cause heart attacks

Antibiotics cure colds and flu

We lose more heat from our heads than anywhere else

We need to drink 8 glasses of water a day

missing meals is dangerous to health. This one I know from personal experience, for health reasons I decided to fast for ten days, no food water only, my family and friends were horrified, proclaiming I would become sick and might even die, ten days later I was fine, I still had plenty of energy, was still exercising and working, but my blood pressure came down from very high to just above normal and stayed that way for a year, until bad eating habits put me back in the same condition.

Genesis is literal fact--proven false through various research in biology, geology, and astronomy.

Extinction can't occur--proven false by, well, things going extinct.

The Earth is flat--proven false first by geometry (fun with shadow measurement), and more conclusively by people actually going all the way around.

The sun goes around the Earth--proven false by observation of other orbiting systems (like Jupiter's moons), by a better understanding of gravitation, and possibly by other things.

Heavier things fall faster than lighter things--proven false by dropping things and actually timing the results.

Most or all of those are cases of pre-scientific beliefs being replaced by science. Science has occasionally made mistakes, sometimes even rather large ones. But those mistakes tend to be fixed by *better science later*. And, often, the "bad" science is still more or less true, just not as universal as it was previously thought to be. For example, Newtonian physics are still "true"--as long as you're dealing with a frame of reference that isn't close enough to the speed of light to matter.

What's your point?

Eggs are bad

Eggs are good

Milk is bad

Milk is good

The world is warming

The world is cooling

...etc

What your buying into is the contemporary consensuses of the day. Tomorrow is another day.

nuclear power generation is unsafe. we can,t fly to, or live on mars. auto road speed limits are suggestions, not laws. obama has your best interests at heart. americans are idiots. they are not, but elect leaders that(apparently) are. when a guy tells a girl he loves her; he means it. if we are to be struck by an asteroid; god will save us. global warming is false. moslem terrorists are simply misunderstood. the u.s. can,t secure its' southern border. investing in space exploration is a waste of money. lots of silly things people would like to believe.

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A paradigm is basically what most people believe to be true, whether it is actually true or not.

In current times and throughout history there have been many false paradigms. How many can you name and how do we now know they were false?

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