> Global warming is it ocean cycles?

Global warming is it ocean cycles?

Posted at: 2015-03-12 
The warming will not be caused by ocean cycles but the fact that the temperature increases for a period then pauses for a period may be affected by the ocean.

I have done a curve fitting experiment - not to be confused with science.

I started with the PDO data and cumulated it (i.e. integrated over time). If the PDO data were smoothed it would be a bit like a square wave so when it is integrated it will look like a triangular wave that oscillates about the x-axis. To make it increase or remain level I have added an offset. This offset is also cumulated. If you choose suitable numbers you can make the cumulated PDO rise then level then rise again.

When you scale that to make it fit the HADCRUT4 temperature series you can see that there is a marked agreement. The blue line is HADCRUT4, the red is my cumulated PDO + Offset and the green is the original PDO (offset to stop it overlaying the other data.)

My PDO offset was 0.5 so that should be proportional to the non-PDO effect and could be caused by CO2 or anything else.

(This graph in now way invalidates or otherwise casts doubts on the consensus view - please do not reduce my funding! More work will be required to determine the exact offset and its physical meaning - i.e. please send more funding.)

EDIT: There are papers on this subject by Professor Don Easterbrook, a geologist.



Expanding of Alph’s answer: Why do you keep asking the same question about something you obviously have spent no time thinking about?



PDO, AMO, NAO,…whatever-O… are functions of (i.e., calculated using) Sea Surface Temperature measurements. Acting like relationships between them and global temperature is some shocking new and unexpected discovery is idiotic. They are not independent variables – they are not even independent of each other.

Unless you can provide a mechanism/cause that drives them and that is independent of atmospheric chemistry, all you are telling us is that our temperature measurements have some things in common.

Thanks for trying to help, but we already know that.

See my answer to your similar question for more details.

No, it’s not ocean cycles. They can amplify or attenuate the warming signal but they do not cause warming, they merely move heat around, they don’t generate it.

These cycles have positive, negative and neutral phases that cancel each other out. If warming or cooling were down to ocean cycles then there would be no overall change in global temperatures or ocean heat content.

When the net oscillatory indices are in a pronounced warming phase all that happens is that they amplify the warming signal caused by global warming. When they’re strongly negative there is no cooling, it just temporarily masks the underlying global warming.

No, and keeping asking is not changing the answer . You'll have to do a lot better than referring to WUWT- maybe a breakthrough scientific paper

Ocean warming is but a symptom.

Nope. These are a result of AGW, not the cause of it

When the PDO and AMO combine we get warming

Here the AMO http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Annual-AMO-chart.png

The PDO http://digitaldiatribes.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/pdo-wave.jpg

Combined http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/northpacificsst_pdo.png