> Arctic Ocean Predicted To Be Ice Free By 2013 - Oops! What say you?

Arctic Ocean Predicted To Be Ice Free By 2013 - Oops! What say you?

Posted at: 2015-03-12 
Well it wasn't a bad gamble the warmons tried. As we all know, mankind is too insignificant to change the weather. The climate could have gone up or down or stayed the same, so they had a 1 in 3 chance of being right and they spectacularly lost the bet. Sadly they blew all chance of playing for double or quits because their doomsday predictions [opening bet] was so far from sanity and reality.

Never mind warmons, try again in another 100 years if you like but for the present your bluff has been rumbled.

I found a website that showed Arctic ice photos for practically every day since the late 70s. We did have an anomalously massive amount of ice in ?2010, but the general trend during that period was for less ice. And I looked at most of the years as I'm a doubting Thomas.

@Big Gryph: "Keep in mind a prediction isn't fact."

Just a reminder that science works by making predictions and then checking them against facts (observed data). If you predicted the Arctic will be ice free by 2013, then it appears (given we are likely at the summer minimum already) the facts will show the science behind that prediction was wrong.

But hey, let's not just pick on Al Gore, let's go to some real scientists:

Budding PhD in climate science and member of the Sierra Club who wants an "adult discussion": http://www.sierraclub.ca/en/AdultDiscuss...

Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting....: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

Big Gryph has fairly well covered the editorial that you linked. Should I write such an editorial, will you link to it as well? You probably know me better than you know the author(s) of that editorial since it is not attributed to anyone.

Let us look a little closer at the editorial. Why are there no supporting links to the claims being made?

"As the Daily Mail reports, "A chilly Arctic summer has left nearly a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than at the same time last year ― an increase of 60%."

Poor information, poor terminology and poor math skills.

The "rebound" is closer to 50% over last year and not 60% - http://www.sci-tech-today.com/story.xhtm...

A better term to use here is that the continued loss of Arctic sea ice is in remission this year and should not be called a rebound or a recovery. The continued, long term threat of Arctic sea ice still exists and this has not changed.

The "rebound" has been for a 1 year melt season and coming off a record low Arctic sea extent level from the previous year's melt season.

The best measure of the Arctic sea ice health is in the Arctic sea ice total volume. Total volume continues to fall.

"U.S. climate expert Judith Curry suggests computer models place too much emphasis on current CO2 levels and not enough on long-term cycles in ocean temperature that have a huge influence on climate and suggest we may be approaching a period similar to 1965 to 1975, when there was a clear cooling trend."

Judith has some explaining to do here. If it is true that the oceans are a huge influence on climate, beyond the short term influences it does have on climate, then where does the accumulation and loss of heat energy come from that would be a long term influence on the climate? What drives the temperature of the oceans that will in turn drive the long term global climate either towards a warm or cool phase in the climate? I would like Judith to answer this for us. Using the Laws of Thermodynamics, of course, along with the Laws of Physics. Answers born of psuedo-science is not an answer. Wouldn't she need to show an increase in solar output to account for warming the oceans to the point that it also warms the climate? Would not this increase in solar activity not only warm our oceans, but every object in our solar system as well? ...... (trust me, I lay in wait for any ill conceived responses on this one.)

Now, on to Ottawa Mike's constant dribble and pointless questions and answers. Congratulations! You found a scientist that was foolish enough to make an assumption on this year's Arctic sea ice melt season based off of the observations of the previous Arctic sea ice melt season. Just like every "skeptic" and denial industry puppet here, he looked at one year to forecast the years ahead. He did not take into account that weather still happens. This year's Arctic summer was cooler than it normally is during the summer. So goes the weather. Wait! It will change. Do not make predictions on the future weather based on what happened yesterday, last week or last summer. He should have known better than to do this. ... I will make a prediction for you, Ottawa Mike, as to when the Arctic sea ice will melt out. I predict that there is enough CO2 in the atmosphere now that the next time we see a strong and enduring El Nino event work in conjunction with a strong and enduring solar activity event that we will see the Arctic sea ice melt out. ... You can bookmark this for prosperity purposes. Would you like to jump in on this now?

Professor Wieslaw Maslowski and his team did make a bad judgement call on their prediction, but it did look like a safe bet to make at the time. Had there not been lower than normal solar activity in conjunction with La Nina to neutral ENSO events over this time frame, the team may have been correct in their prediction made in 2007. Again, considering the record warm year of 2007, they were a bit hasty in their prediction when thinking the warming would continue at the same rate going forward. The climate does still have its natural variations, for now.

get real. Comparing one year to last year is not climate.

"There is more sea ice now than there was in mid-September 1990" Pure BS.

right.. Al Gore, Benghazi, Communism.......

Your link is first of all an editorial, not an article. It has zero original content, quotes DailyMail, a decidedly denier rag. It goes back to Gore which is ancient history and is mostly stand alone quotes. Here is the current state of the Arctic http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ if you are interested in the truth

Keep in mind a prediction isn't fact

The Warmist religon want to forget about the Northwest

passage discovered hundreds of years ago . that never

happened in the History rewrites . And was low in the

1950s and probaly before then lots of times .

Well it's nice to pronounce a sensational piece of science and have it published, and have your fame and glory, but then again makes you look stupid when it goes wrong.

How embarrassing for Al.....

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/092413-672356-arctic-ice-cap-grows-60-percent.htm



"Earth has gained 19,000 Manhattans of sea ice since this date last year, the largest increase on record. There is more sea ice now than

there was in mid-September 1990. Al Gore, call your office."